19 replies to this topic

[icehater]

Slow moving and moisture loaded and very borderline. Maybe this is the storm Robbbs referenced JB discussing.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...p300336_s.shtml

Horrible synoptic though. Looks like a typical potential March wet snow event though. Look at the placement of the High under Illinois. If this verifies that High sails off the SE coast, becomes a Bermuda High and it's lights out on the agony of winter 2007. 60 degrees following snow is a mess. Looks like Spring comes in perfectly timed with the new Daylight Savings Time.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...p348384_s.shtml

[robbbs]

Ice, that could be the system. JB updated this morning and here are the highlights -- still mentions March '01 (as well as April '82) as the blocking analogs for a big northeast storm either the week of February 25th or the first week of March. Also says that he's by himself now (no model support) on his storm idea for mid next week. Lastly, he doesn't think a warm up is coming (to above or much above normal temps) for at least another 3 or 4 weeks.

[icehater]

Quote

Ice, that could be the system. JB updated this morning and here are the highlights -- still mentions March '01 (as well as April '82) as the blocking analogs for a big northeast storm either the week of February 25th or the first week of March. Also says that he's by himself now (no model support) on his storm idea for mid next week. Lastly, he doesn't think a warm up is coming (to above or much above normal temps) for at least another 3 or 4 weeks.

Robbbs - The April 6 1982 storm dropped the temp in NYC at noon to 22 degrees. Raging blizzard, whiteout, thunder and lightning and a foot of snow with that storm on the first day of BB season. The news that night showed drifts at Yankee stadium that were covering the ft markings at the walls. A local Met at the time had said that storm would have easily topped 30" of snow had it occurred in January as the first half of it was 35 degree rain, then a mixed snow, sleet rain and then the big thump of hvy snow that gave the city 8-14" of snow. His thought was that  InJanuary the event would have been straight snow from start to finish. He mused that it would have started snowing at 20-25 degrees and by storms end temps would have been near zero. In his mind it would have rivalled the blizzard of 1888 from the standpoint of snow falling at extreme low temps in the heart of the storm. That storm produced 50-60 mph winds in the afternoon with 3" an hour snow rates and thunder. An extreme weather event and it happened in april!

[icehater]

Let's keep in mind that by March 10th normal high is about 50 degrees give or take a degree or two depending on where your location is.

[summer]

Ice,
This is a key point about high temps moving up - with increased daylight hours and higher sun angle it becomes more and more difficult to get huge storms that have snow that sticks to all surfaces during daylight hours

[Stormchaser]

Quote

Let's keep in mind that by March 10th normal high is about 50 degrees give or take a degree or two depending on where your location is.

I consider snowstorm chances in early March about the same as early December -- average highs near 50 +/- a degree Dec 1st-5th. Only difference -- and it's an important factor -- ocean temperatures are in the mid/upper 30's right now contrasted to lower 50's the first half of December. (the counter to that is we have an early October sun angle in early March) However, water temps aren't going to do much to help us if the storm track is inland. The fact that the 00z Euro lost the late week storm has me worried as it picked up on the last event -- and stuck with it for 5-7 seven days. If this week is a non-event, we have about week or so left of February. I'm not counting on March to produce much as it hardly does from NYC southward. Yes, there have been big storms -- but only a handful in the I-95 corridor. February is the climatologically favored month for big snows on the coast; and more than half of it is down the tubes. This winter has been one disappointment after another overall.

[weatherbowl]

[quote author=Stormchaser link=topic=973.msg6202#msg6202 date=1171729242]
[quote author=icehater link=topic=973.msg6200#msg6200 date=1171728255]
Let's keep in mind that by March 10th normal high is about 50 degrees give or take a degree or two depending on where your location is.
[/quote]


I consider snowstorm chances in early March about the same as early December -- average highs near 50 +/- a degree Dec 1st-5th. Only difference -- and it's an important factor -- ocean temperatures are in the mid/upper 30's right now contrasted to lower 50's the first half of December. (the counter to that is we have an early October sun angle in early March) However, water temps aren't going to do much to help us if the storm track is inland. The fact that the 00z Euro lost the late week storm has me worried as it picked up on the last event -- and stuck with it for 5-7 seven days. If this week is a non-event, we have about week or so left of February. I'm not counting on March to produce much as it hardly does from NYC southward. Yes, there have been big storms -- but only a handful in the I-95 corridor. February is the climatologically favored month for big snows on the coast; and more than half of it is down the tubes. This winter has been one disappointment after another overall.







[/quoteStorm I feel you are down playing March a little to much. I agree big storms usually accur before March but March does on average get almost as much snow as December. Here on Long Island the average high temp in March does not hit 50 until 2 or 3 weeks into the month. The big difference between December and March is December the winter is ahead of you and not behind you, and, as you mentioned, the ocean temps are much colder in March.

[Stormchaser]

Quote

Ice,
This is a key point about high temps moving up - with increased daylight hours and higher sun angle it becomes more and more difficult to get huge storms that have snow that sticks to all surfaces during daylight hours

Personally I think the sun angle thing is somewhat overrated. If you have a highly dynamic storm with plenty of cold air waiting in the wings -- it easily overrides the sun factor. Back in the April snowstorm of 2003 snow stuck to the roads at 2pm in the afternoon -- temperatures were in the middle 20's. You need heavy precipitation for snow to stick in the day -- strong winds also aid in the cooling processes on highways.

[summer]

I think we might get a big storm somewhere between now and st. pat's day

[icehater]

Quote

Ice,
This is a key point about high temps moving up - with increased daylight hours and higher sun angle it becomes more and more difficult to get huge storms that have snow that sticks to all surfaces during daylight hours

There have been so many great March storms including many during the daytime. The 93 superstorm was almost entirely a daytime event and that was March 13th. IMO - the sun angle idea is true to a degree but it's overstated. Some folks give you the impression that it almost can't snow and stick in March. Sun angle issues are usually cnfined to light snow and temps around 30 or higher and it's mainly tarred areas we are talking about. Also note that the april 1982 stom referenced earlier was a complete daytime event. Hvy precip will accumulate with no problem at all. Light precip is a different story the later you get once you get past Feb 20th or so.

[Stormchaser]

[quote author=weatherbowl link=topic=973.msg6207#msg6207 date=1171730665]
[quote author=Stormchaser link=topic=973.msg6202#msg6202 date=1171729242]
[quote author=icehater link=topic=973.msg6200#msg6200 date=1171728255]
Let's keep in mind that by March 10th normal high is about 50 degrees give or take a degree or two depending on where your location is.
[/quote]


I consider snowstorm chances in early March about the same as early December -- average highs near 50 +/- a degree Dec 1st-5th. Only difference -- and it's an important factor -- ocean temperatures are in the mid/upper 30's right now contrasted to lower 50's the first half of December. (the counter to that is we have an early October sun angle in early March) However, water temps aren't going to do much to help us if the storm track is inland. The fact that the 00z Euro lost the late week storm has me worried as it picked up on the last event -- and stuck with it for 5-7 seven days. If this week is a non-event, we have about week or so left of February. I'm not counting on March to produce much as it hardly does from NYC southward. Yes, there have been big storms -- but only a handful in the I-95 corridor. February is the climatologically favored month for big snows on the coast; and more than half of it is down the tubes. This winter has been one disappointment after another overall.







[/quoteStorm I feel you are down playing March a little to much. I agree big storms usually accur before March but March does on average get almost as much snow as December. Here on Long Island the average high temp in March does not hit 50 until 2 or 3 weeks into the month. The big difference between December and March is December the winter is ahead of you and not behind you, and, as you mentioned, the ocean temps are much colder in March.
[/quote]

Weatherbowl, I would agree that March can be snowy every so often -- but all I'm saying is I wouldn't put as much faith in it as I would February.

[rgwp96]

Quote

Ice,
This is a key point about high temps moving up - with increased daylight hours and higher sun angle it becomes more and more difficult to get huge storms that have snow that sticks to all surfaces during daylight hours

summer thats bs, I hear people say this all the time.  I have seen snow stick in mid april after it was 60 degrees the dat before.  I dont remember the yaer but it was around april 15th and the plows had to come out.  If it snows heavy enough it will stick

[Stormchaser]

Quote

Quote

Ice,
This is a key point about high temps moving up - with increased daylight hours and higher sun angle it becomes more and more difficult to get huge storms that have snow that sticks to all surfaces during daylight hours

There have been so many great March storms including many during the daytime. The 93 superstorm was almost entirely a daytime event and that was March 13th. IMO - the sun angle idea is true to a degree but it's overstated. Some folks give you the impression that it almost can't snow and stick in March. Sun angle issues are usually cnfined to light snow and temps around 30 or higher and it's mainly tarred areas we are talking about. Also note that the april 1982 stom referenced earlier was a complete daytime event. Hvy precip will accumulate with no problem at all. Light precip is a different story the later you get once you get past Feb 20th or so.

LOL - posted a similar explanation a couple minutes before Ice. Great minds think alike.

[summer]

I never said does not stick just "more difficult" 8)

[metfan4life]

I remember one time in march,the morning temp was near 60 with light rain and then in the afternoon,the temp dropped dramatically below freezing and heavy snow was faling with hight winds and i got 3 inches out of it

[icehater]

Quote

Quote

Ice,
This is a key point about high temps moving up - with increased daylight hours and higher sun angle it becomes more and more difficult to get huge storms that have snow that sticks to all surfaces during daylight hours

Personally I think the sun angle thing is somewhat overrated. If you have a highly dynamic storm with plenty of cold air waiting in the wings -- it easily overrides the sun factor. Back in the April snowstorm of 2003 snow stuck to the roads at 2pm in the afternoon -- temperatures were in the middle 20's. You need heavy precipitation for snow to stick in the day -- strong winds also aid in the cooling processes on highways.

Storm - I date stamped that storm when I took this pic because of the april date. It's the euro dating though. This was not an August snowstorm!!!


[img width=600 height=450]http://i19.tinypic.com/2v7tj6h.jpg[/img]

[icehater]

Quote

I never said does not stick just "more difficult" 8)

Didn't mean you -  it's just that if you read other boards folks make it sound like snow can't stick in march.

[summer]

would kill golfing in early april at least for a few days ;)

[NYBrit]

[/quote]

Storm - I date stamped that storm when I took this pic because of the april date. It's the euro dating though. This was not an August snowstorm!!!


[img width=600 height=450]http://i19.tinypic.com/2v7tj6h.jpg[/img]
[/quote]

LOL that dating thing was a big issue for me when I first moved over here.  In Europe you put the day first then the month complete opposite to over here where you put the month first.  I STILL have to pause sometimes when writing the date like say on a check to remind myself to put the month first!

[icehater]

Quote

would kill golfing in early april at least for a few days ;)

That snow hung around for about 5 days as it stayed cloudy and 35-40 most of those days.