100 replies to this topic

[weatherbowl]

Another nice day on tap. I had a morning low of 59.5. Looks like the below to near normal temperatures continue this week, without the rain. July through the first 5 days is about 3.5 degrees below average in Central Park.

[lab94]

sunny a low of 50.1 up to 65.1 now

[rgwp96]

cloudy with over 4 inches of rain last night. Three tstorms in in 8 hrs. I bought the rain down with me to nc(outerbanks). The good news is the folks down here are bowing to me and thanking me for ending their drought conditions . What a storm we had at 3am. non stop ctg lightning

[robbbs]

rgwp96, on Jul 6 2009, 02:01 PM, said:

cloudy with over 4 inches of rain last night. Three tstorms in in 8 hrs. I bought the rain down with me to nc(outerbanks). The good news is the folks down here are bowing to me and thanking me for ending their drought conditions . What a storm we had at 3am. non stop ctg lightning

I started reading your post and thought "WHAT? Butler got rocked last night?". Then I read the rest and realized you're in the Carolinas. Hope it clears up for you.

[lab94]

rgwp96, on Jul 6 2009, 09:01 AM, said:

cloudy with over 4 inches of rain last night. Three tstorms in in 8 hrs. I bought the rain down with me to nc(outerbanks). The good news is the folks down here are bowing to me and thanking me for ending their drought conditions . What a storm we had at 3am. non stop ctg lightning

Mods, please remove this crap from the local area!!! LOL RG, Now only if you can bring snow to our area!!! LOL Habve a great time down there. This 3 days of sun is getting old up here.

[satellite_eyes]

lab94, on Jul 6 2009, 09:34 AM, said:

Mods, please remove this crap from the local area!!! LOL RG, Now only if you can bring snow to our area!!! LOL Habve a great time down there. This 3 days of sun is getting old up here.

Oh geez another boring sunny day up here LOL.

RG - your forecast looks good at least. Now let's just hope there are no hurricanes when i'm down there.

[Mike_The_Golfer]

So...I guess this is what summer feels like, huh?

[icehater]

weatherbowl, on Jul 6 2009, 08:01 AM, said:

Another nice day on tap. I had a morning low of 59.5. Looks like the below to near normal temperatures continue this week, without the rain. July through the first 5 days is about 3.5 degrees below average in Central Park.

Expect a bunch of underforecasted high temps this week, especially NYC and points SW, and by Thursday it should start getting very warm. Models are bad with forecasted high temps in conditions like we will have this week.

[NYBrit]

87 degrees here now. I don't know what the weather channel people are smoking...they have NYC at 80! It actually feels like summer out there. Not too bad with the humidty but it's hot.

[ericjcrash]

Got to 85 here today but it didn't feel hot, great RH today.

[weatherbowl]

NYBrit, on Jul 6 2009, 05:10 PM, said:

87 degrees here now. I don't know what the weather channel people are smoking...they have NYC at 80! It actually feels like summer out there. Not too bad with the humidty but it's hot.

You really warmed up NYBrit. My high 82, the highest in a while. Central Park 83. Definitely has a summer feel today, although the humidity is still in check.

[NYBrit]

Dropped down to 84.7 now. We were only supposed to reach 80 today. I wonder if this will be the theme of the week: temps going higher than forecast each day.

[icehater]

High here was 87.4, best pool day of the year and a far cry from the predicted 80.

[bm55]

High of 81 after a low of 54.

[Stormchaser]

icehater, on Jul 6 2009, 05:37 PM, said:

High here was 87.4, best pool day of the year and a far cry from the predicted 80.

Ice,

If you note the 18z GFS from tonight, it has several 90F opportunities from late week through at least the 20th with an overall very summery regime in place. Fronts will continue swinging through the Northeast w/ T-storms but this pattern is night and day from the June one.

[icehater]

Stormchaser, on Jul 6 2009, 09:02 PM, said:

Ice,

If you note the 18z GFS from tonight, it has several 90F opportunities from late week through at least the 20th with an overall very summery regime in place. Fronts will continue swinging through the Northeast w/ T-storms but this pattern is night and day from the June one.

Some places in central NJ hit 90-91 today and this is the nicest evening of the season. Great pool day here with very light westerlies and I put the heater on for 2 hours and combined with the blazing sun it took my water temp from 80 at 11 am to 86 by 1:30 and then the sun took it up to 87.

I wouldn't trust high temp forecasts this week if folks are doing planning and I also think the cooler air bias of the models has to also be taken into consideration now. Most of that June cool weather was on easterly winds and I haven't seen an east wind now in 2 weeks and I've been 80+ every day with the west winds with many days near 85. The follow up pattern of cool ULL's (especially NYC and north) also seems to be dying off now. the usual follow-up to a pattern like that dying is heat.

18Z GFS brings in a monster heat wave with 582 mb thickness and 100+ temps in our area later this month and that looks like a long lasting pattern. I'd look to it for patternal developments more so than forecasts at this point but either way it spells huge heat potential. I go to Myrtle late month and it's going to be a steam bath with a powerful SE ridge down there. I'll bet we have 110-120 heat indices down there.

[Stormchaser]

icehater, on Jul 6 2009, 09:39 PM, said:

Some places in central NJ hit 90-91 today and this is the nicest evening of the season. Great pool day here with very light westerlies and I put the heater on for 2 hours and combined with the blazing sun it took my water temp from 80 at 11 am to 86 by 1:30 and then the sun took it up to 87.

I wouldn't trust high temp forecasts this week if folks are doing planning and I also think the cooler air bias of the models has to also be taken into consideration now. Most of that June cool weather was on easterly winds and I haven't seen an east wind now in 2 weeks and I've been 80+ every day with the west winds with many days near 85. The follow up pattern of cool ULL's (especially NYC and north) also seems to be dying off now. the usual follow-up to a pattern like that dying is heat.

18Z GFS brings in a monster heat wave with 582 mb thickness and 100+ temps in our area later this month and that looks like a long lasting pattern. I'd look to it for patternal developments more so than forecasts at this point but either way it spells huge heat potential. I go to Myrtle late month and it's going to be a steam bath with a powerful SE ridge down there. I'll bet we have 110-120 heat indices down there.

Ice -- agreed. I think the next 2 weeks feature the best heat potential of the summer via the brief +SOI/Nina burst before we head back into a cooler than normal, more Nino dominated regime by the end of July and into August.

High was 87 here as well. Went to the Yankee game in the bronx and it felt like it hit 90 there.

[lab94]

high was 82 here Great day

[icehater]

Stormchaser, on Jul 6 2009, 09:54 PM, said:

Ice -- agreed. I think the next 2 weeks feature the best heat potential of the summer via the brief +SOI/Nina burst before we head back into a cooler than normal, more Nino dominated regime by the end of July and into August.

High was 87 here as well. Went to the Yankee game in the bronx and it felt like it hit 90 there.

Storm,

I'll bet the cool down holds off till September, and then the fears begin that such a pattern will die and give way to a SE ridge after Thanksgiving. My gut is August is a lot warmer than you think.

[Stormchaser]

icehater, on Jul 6 2009, 10:29 PM, said:

Storm,

I'll bet the cool down holds off till September, and then the fears begin that such a pattern will die and give way to a SE ridge after Thanksgiving. My gut is August is a lot warmer than you think.

Ice,

You could be right - I'm thinking the opposite right now, August cool and September warm, which is often the case in developing ninos. Let's hope the SE ridge doesn't rear it's ugly head by winter; the progression of the pattern so far this summer w/ a cool June has me slightly concerned about a strong nino, but there are enough factors IMO balancing out that signal right now, namely the switch to neg PDO and the prolonged solar minimum.

Grass is finally drying out after 7 days w/o rain - actually turning brown in spots.