25 replies to this topic

[metfan4life]

The Euro and GGEM showed it this afternoon and now, the Nam has caught on. The Nam is not wound up like the GGEM showed it this afternoon.

0z Nam.

Hour 42 and 48 look really interesting for the area.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_pcp_042l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_pcp_048l.gif

Total precip.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_p60_060l.gif

Looks more organized than it was on the 18z Nam and little more west.

[terryjohnson16]

That looks like a lot of precip.

[WeatherWarrior]

Latest models indicate two pieces of energies link up, interacting with the digging trough in the east. This essentially means the threat is pushed up to Friday

[weatherbowl]

It will be tropical in the sense it is coming from the tropics but a tropical storm with wind is very unlikely.

[icehater]

weatherbowl, on Jul 22 2009, 06:47 AM, said:

It will be tropical in the sense it is coming from the tropics but a tropical storm with wind is very unlikely.

Exactly. There is a big difference between a small/weak wave like this and even a trop depression. On top of that it's more likely to stay offshore just like the other nights wave.

[WeatherWarrior]

weatherbowl, on Jul 22 2009, 06:47 AM, said:

It will be tropical in the sense it is coming from the tropics but a tropical storm with wind is very unlikely.

Agreed. Just looks like a big rain maker to me ATTM.

This is the morning NHC update...


2. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE HIGH IN THIS AREA AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Attached Thumbnails

• 

[WeatherWarrior]

Still a code yellow as of the 2pm NHC update.

[WeatherWarrior]

Hows this for some model candy?

Its the latest GGEM model run, however its an outlier

Attached Thumbnails

• 

[Mike_The_Golfer]

WeatherWarrior, on Jul 22 2009, 02:58 PM, said:

Hows this for some model candy?

Its the latest GGEM model run, however its an outlier

That would certainly be a lawn-pleaser.

[icehater]

WeatherWarrior, on Jul 22 2009, 02:58 PM, said:

Hows this for some model candy?

Its the latest GGEM model run, however its an outlier

Winter or summer the GEM will make a storm out of anything it can get it's hands on and this is a trop fetch to boot, something the Gem is not built for. I take the model in 48 hours about as seriously as I take the GFS at 360 hours.

[WeatherWarrior]

icehater, on Jul 22 2009, 04:19 PM, said:

Winter or summer the GEM will make a storm out of anything it can get it's hands on and this is a trop fetch to boot, something the Gem is not built for. I take the model in 48 hours about as seriously as I take the GFS at 360 hours.

Agreed. The GGEM is usually the reason we hear about 5 possibilities each winter of a Category 5 Winter Storm

Anyways, latest satellite imagery llooks quite interesting. We might be able to get off with a Tropical Depression before the CLC reaches the outer banks by tomorrow morning.

[icehater]

WeatherWarrior, on Jul 22 2009, 05:32 PM, said:

Agreed. The GGEM is usually the reason we hear about 5 possibilities each winter of a Category 5 Winter Storm

Anyways, latest satellite imagery llooks quite interesting. We might be able to get off with a Tropical Depression before the CLC reaches the outer banks by tomorrow morning.

If I coud get the inch and a quarter of rain out of it or the midwest system like I got yesterday I'll be happy. Lawns still need water here.

[robbbs]

icehater, on Jul 22 2009, 10:57 PM, said:

If I coud get the inch and a quarter of rain out of it or the midwest system like I got yesterday I'll be happy. Lawns still need water here.

Upton gave some good details of expected rainfall in their area forecast discussion -- they're expecting 2" to 4" over eastern LI and CT, 1" to 2" east of the Hudson, up to 1" west of the Hudson. However, they mentioned low confidence in the track and a slight shift west would bring very heavy rains over NY metro.

[icehater]

After looking at the 0Z Nam I just put the sprinklers back on. Curve of the precip offshore for a few runs now shows the Nam sees the little trop system leaning NNE just like the other night. Hopefullly the western side will do better with a plume the Nam is missing right now as was also the case the other night. But truthfully I'ver never had a good feeling about rain from this upcoming system. My fear was the midest system dies out and the weak trop system is too far east and that's what the Nam is spelling out right now.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_p60_060l.gif

[metfan4life]

Looks like this threat will miss us to our east. Eastern SNE will get the brunt of the storm.

[rgwp96]

icehater, on Jul 22 2009, 10:54 PM, said:

After looking at the 0Z Nam I just put the sprinklers back on. Curve of the precip offshore for a few runs now shows the Nam sees the little trop system leaning NNE just like the other night. Hopefullly the western side will do better with a plume the Nam is missing right now as was also the case the other night. But truthfully I'ver never had a good feeling about rain from this upcoming system. My fear was the midest system dies out and the weak trop system is too far east and that's what the Nam is spelling out right now.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_p60_060l.gif

the nam missed the western area of precip with less than 12 hrs before last rain storm

[WeatherWarrior]

GFS and NAM both say its a miss. Weird storm for sure.

Precip is pushing onshore though right now, when the GFS and NAM have it out at sea attm. Just gonna have to see its progress overnight. We could all use the rain right about now.

[weatherbowl]

We will see what tomorrow brings but right now it is tropical. The muggiest night I have had, temperature 72, humidity 96 and dewpoint and uncomfortable 71. Lots of clouds coming in off the ocean.

[WeatherWarrior]

Current Radar until morning...

[isobar65]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
445 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2009

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING
IS FORECAST TO TAKE A TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LOW TRACK. THIS PLACES EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT
IN THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THUS THE AREA OF
CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING.

CTZ005-009-NYZ068-070>077-230945-
/O.CAN.KOKX.FA.A.0003.090723T2200Z-090724T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-PUTNAM-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
445 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2009

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

FORECAST MODELS AND LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUPPORTS A LOW TRACK
THAT WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

$$


CTZ006>008-010>012-NYZ078>081-231645-
/O.EXT.KOKX.FA.A.0003.090723T2200Z-090724T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
445 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2009

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN NEW
LONDON...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN AND SOUTHERN
NEW LONDON. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK AND SOUTHWESTERN
SUFFOLK.

* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE THE MOISTURE
NEEDED FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING TRACKS NORTHEAST AND PASSES
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALSO LEFT SATURATED SOIL
CONDITIONS...AIDING IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLOODING.

* RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.