477 replies to this topic

[Hurricaneff]

This will definatly change,but it is nice to see the first gfs northeast hurricane of the season.Gfs in future runs will probably have this as an out to sea,Fl hit,NC hit,carribean to gulf storm,and probably once or twice the storm wont be there.

So here is our first fanatsy hurricane.Save it because it probably wont be there on next run

[WeatherWarrior]

Yea, pretty fun stuff. This is the exact reason why Tropical Systems are so interesting. However, the thread this should go into can be found here....

Hurricane Season Thread

[jjvesnow]

That storm has actually been there for a couple days now.

[icehater]

The GFS has already had this storm in Florida and New Orleans in the past few runs. Pick a dart and throw it at the wall and let's see where it lands next.

[jjvesnow]

It is fantasy land, but fun to look at.

[benfica356]

06z GFS

[benfica356]

12z GFS

[jjvesnow]

Very consistent in the +300 hr range

[snowfreak188]

it we be cool to get a strong cat1 around here id think.

[weathergeek87]

Ahh, GFS fantasy runs.
Burns you in winter and summer! Let the burning begin.
Haha. I agree, fun to look at.

[metfan4life]

snowfreak188, on Aug 10 2009, 03:38 PM, said:

it we be cool to get a strong cat1 around here id think.

It would be cool.

[metfan4life]

It is a miss on the 18z GFS. LOL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_312l.gif

[icehater]

jjvesnow, on Aug 10 2009, 01:53 PM, said:

Very consistent in the +300 hr range

Not really. This storm was originally a South Texas/northern Mexico hit for two runs, then New Orleans area, then Florida, then us for 2 runs , then NC and inland to NW Pa. and now this.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_slp_288l.gif

[jjvesnow]

icehater, on Aug 11 2009, 02:29 AM, said:

Not really. This storm was originally a South Texas/northern Mexico hit for two runs, then New Orleans area, then Florida, then us for 2 runs , then NC and inland to NW Pa. and now this.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_slp_288l.gif

I only mean that it has had a STORM now for a couple days. Thats what i found interesting.

[jfio93]

jjvesnow, on Aug 10 2009, 10:19 PM, said:

I only mean that it has had a STORM now for a couple days. Thats what i found interesting.

thats cool but i learned my lesson in the winter u cant trust this until 1 day out and even then itll break ur heart

[Hurricaneff]

06z GFS has a a donna like track(except a bit more inland north of NC).Has it crossing the keys,the hits the west coast of florida,cross Florida into the Atlantic then hitS NC and rides the coast just inland.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...en_m_loop.shtml

[jjvesnow]

jfio93, on Aug 11 2009, 03:40 AM, said:

thats cool but i learned my lesson in the winter u cant trust this until 1 day out and even then itll break ur heart

Yes, i know. I have been around long enough to know that. I just think it is fun to watch the model runs, and to see how they all pan out.

The summer is boring to me until the POSSIBILITY of a hurricane in the north east pops up.

[jfio93]

Hurricaneff, on Aug 10 2009, 08:10 AM, said:

This will definatly change,but it is nice to see the first gfs northeast hurricane of the season.Gfs in future runs will probably have this as an out to sea,Fl hit,NC hit,carribean to gulf storm,and probably once or twice the storm wont be there.

So here is our first fanatsy hurricane.Save it because it probably wont be there on next run

i have a question is this cat 1 on the current run or just a strong tropical storm

[WeatherWarrior]

This storm is an east coast threat which appears to be the model consensus. Before truncation is what I am looking at. It will be interesting to see when the NHC declares this wave an invest.

[icehater]

588MB thickness at the center of circulation! Man is that warm core and shows why there's almost never lightning near the center of a hurricane despite a wide 45-50,000 foot cloudtop at the center of stronger storms.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_slp_276l.gif