268 replies to this topic

[robbbs]

The potential for a tropical weather event in our region for this weekend is increasing. What impact, however, is largely unknown still. This could range from a washout rain as tropical moisture interacts with an approaching front (similar to last weekend), to a tropical storm or hurricane tracking along the eastern seaboard. With the storm not even born, discussions of tracks are pretty meaningless. But presuming that something does develop, the synoptic set-up is good for amplification along the east coast, which would tend to draw whatever's in the Atlantic toward and up the coast. Certainly early but it's starting to get interesting. If recon shows a named system in the next day or two, it's going to get very busy on this board.

[icehater]

robbbs, on Aug 25 2009, 06:11 PM, said:

A potential tropical weather event impact for our area appears to be increasing for this weekend. What impact, however, is unknown still. However, the possibilites could range from a washout rain as tropical moisture interacts with an approaching front (similar to last weekend), to a tropical storm or hurricane tracking along the eastern seaboard. With the storm not even born, discussions of tracks are pretty meaningless. However, presuming that something does develop, the synoptic set-up is good for amplification along the east coast, which would tend to draw whatever's out there in the Atlantic toward and up the coast. Certainly early still but it's starting to get interesting. If recon shows a named system in the next day or two, it's going to get very busy on this board.

Yep - this one is a much more realistic threat than Bill ever was but it doesn't look like it has anywhere near his strength or size potential. Both Euro and GFS have it at over 1000mb's.

[LongIslandWthr]

Should be a good one to track, where ever it may go

[robbbs]

icehater, on Aug 25 2009, 11:19 PM, said:

Yep - this one is a much more realistic threat than Bill ever was but it doesn't look like it has anywhere near his strength or size potential. Both Euro and GFS have it at over 1000mb's.

Ice -- I know I'm stating the obvious but the next day or two will tell us whether we'll have something real to follow. I'd be more comfortable trading posts about potential impact if a named storm was already out there. However, conditions look favorable for something to develop, and that amplifying set-up would be quite a magnet for it on the east coast this weekend.

[icehater]

It's really a bit too far out for the Nam but it's sim radars are certainly impressive and it has it as a stronger storm than the GFS or Euro.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_ref_084l.gif

If you loop the sim radars it looks like it might bounce NE off the NC coast and head for eastern LI.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...ef_l_loop.shtml

[Stormchaser]

icehater, on Aug 25 2009, 09:28 PM, said:

It's really a bit too far out for the Nam but it's sim radars are certainly impressive and it has it as a stronger storm than the GFS or Euro.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_ref_084l.gif

If you loop the sim radars it looks like it might bounce NE off the NC coast and head for eastern LI.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...ef_l_loop.shtml

Ice,

Agree about the bigger threat w/ this system. I'd focus more on projected track at this point as models will have a very difficult time handling intensity until a clearly defined low level center forms. The GFS seems to be splitting some of this energy / elongating the pressure falls to the northeast, which allows it to take a path out to sea. Whereas the global models seem to indicate a tightly wrapped center w/ rapid intensification.

The upper pattern is also more favorable with a pretty potent short wave trough diving SE into the Ohio valley which should create a S-N flow along the east coast. Timing will be key however, as a slower development would give it higher probability of turning out to sea. Cold front should arrive Sunday sometime, so as long as it doesn't delay too much, I think this may be our best chance of something tropical/warm core in nature in quite awhile.

[robbbs]

icehater, on Aug 26 2009, 01:28 AM, said:

It's really a bit too far out for the Nam but it's sim radars are certainly impressive and it has it as a stronger storm than the GFS or Euro.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_ref_084l.gif

If you loop the sim radars it looks like it might bounce NE off the NC coast and head for eastern LI.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...ef_l_loop.shtml

Ice -- I read a discussion from NHC in Miami this evening which talked about the possibility of this system jumping straight to tropical storm category (bypassing TD status). Don't know how often that's happened but can't be too often. Evidently, gale force winds have already been recorded by recon but no center of circulation so no tropical name yet but appears very close.

[icehater]

robbbs, on Aug 25 2009, 09:54 PM, said:

Ice -- I read a discussion from NHC in Miami this evening which talked about the possibility of this system jumping straight to tropical storm category (bypassing TD status). Don't know how often that's happened but can't be too often. Evidently, gale force winds have already been recorded by recon but no center of circulation so no tropical name yet but appears very close.

That may have happened with Camille. Camille went from nothing to a Cat 4 and then a Cat 5 in a few days so it's possible. Otherwise I can't ever remember it happening.

[weatherbowl]

Is this system that hasn't formed yet, invest 92? I see the ensembles have this tracking up the east coast.

[lab94]

weatherbowl, on Aug 25 2009, 11:27 PM, said:

Is this system that hasn't formed yet, invest 92? I see the ensembles have this tracking up the east coast.

yes

[weatherbowl]

lab94, on Aug 25 2009, 11:30 PM, said:

yes

Gotchya, thanks. It does look interesting.

[WeatherWarrior]

00z GFS initialized further south with RECON data now being used as I said should happen with this run earlier. We will see what it does.

[icehater]

WeatherWarrior, on Aug 25 2009, 11:49 PM, said:

00z GFS initialized further south with RECON data now being used as I said should happen with this run earlier. We will see what it does.

Always wait for the GFS to run a bit. You thought it was coming around when you posted that and it went more east on you. This model is having a hard time splitting the ULL from a surface trop storm so it needs more time. But it definitely went a lot warmer over the weekend with a warm core storm and it leaves the cool air in the midwest so it's changing. Temp map looks a lot more Euroish with central NJ in 570mb thickness now but storm is way east.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_slp_102l.gif

[Virgaman]

wow!! thats a lot of rain!!!, get the boats out

http://www.hpc.ncep....082600_fill.gif

[LongIslandWthr]

Very Bullish

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
437 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

NYZ075>077-080-081-271000-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
437 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MAY IMPACT THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
THIS STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

[icehater]

I think it's safe to say that there's a disagreement between the GFS and NAM about this trop systtem.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_p60_084l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_p60_084l.gif

Euro supports NAM with respect to position of the storm but not it's intensity. Euro has a weak 1002mb system. NAM has a continually strengthening system on the coast (Down to an intensifying 988mb at 84 hours). I can't buy the latter in a trop system in colder water interacting with land so I'll take the Euro's weaker system as the likely outcome. Either way there could be a lot of rain with this system (NAM as usual is probably way overdone) especially inland. One thing for sure is this weekend will be tropical, not fall like. Even the GFS is now quite warm if you buy into its solution.

[LongIslandWthr]

icehater, on Aug 26 2009, 09:56 AM, said:

I think it's safe to say that there's a disagreement between the GFS and NAM about this trop systtem.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_p60_084l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_p60_084l.gif

Euro supports NAM with respect to position of the storm but not it's intensity. Euro has a weak 1002mb system Nam has a continually strengthening system on the coast 9Down to an intensifying 988mb at 84 hours). I can't buy the latter in a trop system so I'll take the Euro's weaker system as the likely outcome. Either way their could be a lot iof rain with this system (Nam as usual is probably way overdone) especially inland. One thing for sure is this weekend will be tropical, not fall like. Even the GFS is now quite warm if you buy iunto its solution.

If Danny (?) does become one the the rare storms to ride up the coast as a Category 1, there will be a very narrow time period to prepare. May catch many people off guard, I don't know if I would want the media to be hyping up the storm right now, to alert people of a possible hit or to down play the event and possibly catch people off guard if the storm does impact the area.

A lot of things still need to be worked out over the next 24-48 hours. everyone should continue to monitor the situation.

[LongIslandWthr]

[icehater]

LongIslandWthr, on Aug 26 2009, 10:14 AM, said:

If Danny (?) does become one the the rare storms to ride up the coast as a Category 1, there will be a very narrow time period to prepare. May catch many people off guard, I don't know if I would want the media to be hyping up the storm right now, to alert people of a possible hit or to down play the event and possibly catch people off guard if the storm does impact the area.

A lot of things still need to be worked out over the next 24-48 hours. everyone should continue to monitor the situation.

This is one ugly storm right now, I'll tell you that. It's got a name but it hardly looks like a storm you'd be happy with. Convection is well west of the lower level circulation and sheared. If Danny were human he'd need some medical attention.

http://www.ssd.noaa....1/loop-vis.html

Some dry air in its path to contend with also:

http://www.ssd.noaa....t1/loop-wv.html

[metfan4life]

LongIslandWthr, on Aug 26 2009, 10:37 AM, said:

Extended outlook.