Everything looks good for tomorrow as far as no changes to our current thinking. Precip will come in tomorrow night with enough boundary layer warmth for rain in the city. To the north however, it's cold enough for rain to go quickly to snow in Sullivan, Ulster, Dutchess counties. By daybreak, these places can pick up a quick inch ot two. As the low moves past, rain may end as wet snow in the city, but probably does not accumulate on roads. Maybe a fresh coating on the current snow/ice cover outside the city in the suburbs north and west and that's about it. Roads will be just wet.

Wednesday turns out sunny with a breeze.

Looks like a crappy set up for the weekend with an easterly flow developing Saturday and rain for Sunday.

Bill Evans

Bill,

I believe the operational GFS may be overestimating the warm push into the Northeast next weekend. Most model data suggests a strong SELY flow will be lacking; as the track of the storm is well west of us in the western Lakes. I wouldn't be concerned with any frozen pcpn along the I-95 corridor, however, with an ENE/ELY flow we're going to have a difficult time getting out of the upper 30's/low 40's Friday-Saturday, IMO. In fact, the interior Northeast may receive some icy precip as the low-level cold hangs tough. The ECMWF is implying this scenario. With a deep snowpack, that would also argue for a limited temperature moderation inland. This "warm-up" is really just a few day moderation to near-normal temps before we head below average again the end of the month into the beginning of March.

Stormchaser, I will be in NE PA (Shawnee Mtn) fri-sunday -- (skiing fri & sat) Do you think they will stay all snow as I really hate skiing in the RAIN. Any hope?

Weathergeek, I would say they will be rain especially if it is iffy for us in Sussex county.  The elavation there is just above 1000ft, they are close to the river valley and farther south. The slopes sit on a small ridge that sits between the Delaware river valley and another low valley to the west.  That area tends to stay warmer than a little farther north and west. Usually in these kind of cases the rain snow line is well north of Bushkill.  Shawnee mt is not really in the pocono platau. They kind of site more on a small ridge in the Delaware Valley. You will have better luck at Camal back or mt creek.

Geek, I highly doubt all snow with a track up through the Lakes. However, I am concerned about a snow/sleet/freezing rain mixture for the mountains as low-level cold air remains in place. (particularly considering the deep snowpack -- tends to hold off the warm front) Models beginning to detect cold push is stronger than earlier progged for the late week Thurs-Sat period. High temperatures probably near freezing the end of this week NW, and mid/upper 30's in NYC -- still several degrees below normal. We're only talking a two day warm-up here -- tomorrow and Wednesday. Thereafter, looks cold for the rest of the month into the beginning of March.

There's time to work on the weekend event as (IMO) it could become more important in terms of ice inland. Probably not meaningful snow, but a wintry mix is possible. Chilly rain for I-95 at this moment.

Thanks Storm & Snowshoe