AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
410 PM EST TUE FEB 20 2007
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY FAVORED THE ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED AS IT TYPICALLY HANDLES
DAMMING SITUATIONS...SUCH AS THE ONE THAT APPEARS ON TAP FRO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BETTER THAN THE GFS...THOUGH DO NOTE THE 12Z GFS HAS
COME A LONG WAY TOWARDS AN ECMWF LIKE SOLUTION. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP BY
LATE SUNDAY AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST FORM THE
GREAT PLAINS...DUE TO OVER RUNNING AHEAD OF ITS WARM FRONT
STRETCHING WELL TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD STILL
BE PRIMARILY TO THE SW OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING NEAR LONG ISLAND. FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED
PRECIP TYPE TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX DUE TO INHERENT UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER THIS IS 2 DAYS IN A ROW ECMWF AND NOW
THE GFS HAVE SHOWN THE SIGNATURE OF MORE OF A SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN MAKER...SO THE SITUATION BEARS CLOSE WATCHING. FOR NOW EXPECT
WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND CHANGE ALL PRECIP TO
RAIN...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY (THIS ALL DEPENDS ON
THE PRIMARY LOW REMAINING THE ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AND NOT THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW). ENTIRE LOW COMPLEX MOVES TO
THE N/NE MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN
END. FOR NOW EXPECT TO BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON TUE...AND
DRY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.