So far a third or so of my YTD snow came from the first one. Tomorrow night starts to look very interesting.

http://ggweather.com/loops/eta_18z_slp_1-5.htm

soundings show a rain event.  Above freezing at 950 and mid to upper 30's at surface

Agreed RG. A whole lot of nothing accumulating for tomorrow evening. This looks to be a catskills-interior southern new england 3-5" wet snow. Possibly down to the lower hudson valley and higher terrain of NW NJ -- could pick up a slushy 1" or so. Other than that, we're talking a chilly rain with sfc temps in the upper 30's for NYC and most of New Jersey. Bad timing as well -- most of the pcpn arrives shortly after peak diurnal heating around 5-7pm. Not unexpected in this winter of disappointment.

BTW - I still believe the Sunday system is the one to watch and will continue to gain importance. I thought it would be a snow/ice event for the mountains a few days ago -- now I'm thinking right into NYC as well. We'll see. High pressure progged stronger on latest runs; thus, track of the primary should shift south over the next few days. Will be interesting as this may be the last hurrah for the winter season. Warming up after the first week of March.

Even Sussex is progged > 32 at the sfc per 18z NAM sounding:

http://68.226.77.253/text/meso/NAM_Kfwn.txt


18z GFS very interesting for the weekend event -- pops a secondary south of LI much like ECMWF solution:


[img width=600 height=450]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_096s.gif[/img]

Hard to believe this would not produce snow but I haven't looked at soundings. are you guys looking at the 18Z Nam?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_slp_030l.gif

Ice - if it is snow, it's certainly not accumulating. Newark sounding:

http://68.226.77.253/text/meso/NAM_Kewr.txt

Temps near 37 in precip.

Belmar sounding: (18z NAM)

http://68.226.77.253/text/meso/NAM_Kblm.txt

Ugly as sin.

I said the same thing to myself , and than I checked the soundings.  850 temps at -7 and surface temps in the mid 30's :(.  Just another kick in the face for this wonderful 2007 winter

RGW - if that's the case then surface temps will drop swiftly in areas where precip is heavier. That's impossible to predict though with Norlun troughs.

If there's going to be some surprise snows I would think Long Island. Might be able to squeeze out a couple inches there if temps drop quick enough. Precip looks to be virtually done once sfc temps are down near freezing for most of NJ and NYC.

Don't be getting my hopes up, now!  :o  Are you serious?  ???  LI? Snow, can't be! LOL