Colorado State University forecast team:

The predicted weakening of El Nino conditions combined with a very strong anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic are the primary reasons why we are increasing our forecast."

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-new...cast_2010-04-07

say that every year it seems, guess they'll get it right again soon.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/weather/04/07/h...tion=cnn_latest

So far at least a quiet tornado season.

This is starting to look to me like a quiet hurricane season. Far too much shear over the Atlantic. Everything coming off Africa is being sheared and I doubt there's any change to that pattern during the peak hurricane period. We'll see but I'm now dismissing all the earlier hurricane forecasts and expect that we'll see major revisions pretty soon.

I have also heard there is a lot of Sahara dust in the air off Africa which is cutting off development.

First Cape Verde storm??

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?...;hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...;hour=Animation

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/eu...bVortSLP192.gif

GFS has a few Cape Verde storms lined up.But it is the long range GFS.so can't put much into.Just nice to see

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...en_m_loop.shtml

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRA...castAug2010.pdf

Not impressed. We already have had 2 storms that should never have been named. If it were 15-20 years ago we'd have 1 named storm so far - maybe. Technology, much moreso than weather is naming more storms today. That begs the question that if we have 15 Bonnie's and Colin's, does anyone outside of the predictors consider that an active hurricane season? Some of these predictors are llike JB, seeking validation in anything they can find.

To play devil's advocate, sort of, I would think that what needs to be reset is the expectation and connotation of "active hurricane season." I am not talking about the bluster and hype we see from guys like JB, what I mean is, in some respects that same as what you are saying Ice. Certainly having technology enhancements that allow us to see 15 Bonnie's is valuable and important. In fact, making the technology even more enhanced to better predict what Bonnie will do is a great long term goal. The issue is that we cannot compare today to yesteryear in pure "activity". Our facts are better today than they were in the 50's. So comparing today's season to the 50's is not possible without going back and looking at the 50s with todays technology (as if that were possible).

Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray did not change thier forecast either.Still calling for well above normal season!!


August 4th release
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forec...010/aug2010.pdf

Could also go the other way..If we had the technology 20+ years ago that we have today.Im sure more storms would have been named or designated as a TS. And the average season numbers would be higher.So it's 6 of one and half dozen of the other..

right...but the problem is that when the public hears above average year, they think about having 10 Andrews....not 10 bonnies.

Assuming the public even knows the next storm is storm D. I asked someone that is not a weather nut today if they were aware that our next storm would be the 4th of the season and their answer was - "We had 3 hurricanes?; where did they hit? The problem in a nutshell is that about 1% of the public (and I'm probably being generous with that much) are hurricane weenies that care and will follow a cloud in the tropics for development, 50% are folks that only consider a storm if it's a hurricane and 49% only consider landfalling hurricane's as storms. When you think about it you can't blame the non-weenie crowd. Why on earth should they care about a storm that is named and goes up the center of the Atlantic or turns north soon after emerging off Cape Verde, or one that is here today and gone tomorrow. Likewise why care about a 40-45mph trop storm. It's far less dangerous than this past winter's nor'easters. The person I talked to today actually thought they'd only name a storm if it was a hurricane. Personally, I'd favor storms being named only after they reach wind speeds of over 50 or 55mph (directly measured or clear cut obvious via satellite) and if a storm is not worthy of a data flight than it's not worthy of being named. An alert to shipping and airplanes is all that is needed for stronger sytems in the middlre of the Atlantic, same as winter cyclones.

I don't disagree at all....its the statement about above average years that is misleading either way. If they only name the big ones, its still the same problem. Apples of today to oranges in the past.

I d'ont think they missed hurricanes in the past, just these 39-45mph so called trop storms, that pad season totals and maybe some very far east weaker hurricanes. Have we even had a 50mph directly measured storm this season? Bonnie looked like one of our disintegrating cold front squall lines for cryin out loud. On TWC's radar she was about 3 or 4 showers in the GOM just before landfall at one point.

right...thats what I would figure. I suppose going back years, they also missed fish hurricanes at some point. Its almost like trying to compare Bob Gibson to Strasburg. Mound is different, general competition is different. Its really difficult to compare to day to 50 years ago. Yet folks will do it. Those in the know, will question the variables. Those who are oblivious, will simply hear what the TV tells them and assume all is true and accurate.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/stor...-forecast-n.asp

I was wondering if no hurricane development is a good thing or a bad thing. Hurricane season doesn't really end til Nov 1st, but things still can start churning, since this is only early August.

2005 was a serious year.

Peak season doesn't even start until Aug 25th. So it's not an issue of things can start churning. That's sought of like saying it can get colder than it is in late November. The trop waves will come off Africa routinely as we get deeper into August. But will they develop into storms? My gut says this is a lot quieter season than forecasted.

It ends Nov,30th

Here is a list of the past 25 season with the date we got to the C storm(15 had C storm later then this year,10 had C storm earlier in the year)


2009-Aug 16
2008-Jul 19
2007-Jul 31
2006-Aug 1
2005-Jul 5
2004-Aug 10
2003-Jul 8
2002-Aug 5
2001-Aug 16
2000-Aug 18
1999-Aug 20
1998-Aug 21
1997-Jul 14
1996-Jul 25
1995-Jul 14
1994-Aug 16
1993-Aug 14
1992-Sept 22
1991-Sept 5
1990-Aug 2
1989-Jul 31
1988-Aug 26
1987-Sept 7
1986-Aug 16
1985-Aug 11

The question I have always had relative to Terry's point is about the impact on the water temp. As strong storms come through, they churn the water and bring up the cooler bottom water...right. That mixing must result in some cooling at least. So first question is how significant is that impact? Does the cool water simply turn into a 5 mile wide ribbon thats a degree or three cooler (which is probably inconsequential given the unlikely occurrance of a storm following that same path), or is it more substantial?

Second question is pretty dependent upon first. If there really is a substantial impact, say a 500 mile swath of water that is a few degrees cooler, wouldn't it follow that if we have a few smaller storms early in the year it should lessen the water temp and thus the available fuel? Or the converse, with no churning, does the water warm to such a degree that it really becomes potent fuel for late season devastating storms?

If that was the case you'd never have been able to have the huge storm season we had in 2005 as so many of those storms traversed the same area. The upwelling of cooler water only happens if a storm is stalled and sits over the same area for many days. The famous Cat 5 Hurricane Mitch did this. Otherwise the trop waters stay very even or if they drop off a degree or two with a slower moving storms passage they get it right back before the next storm passes through.

BTW - I've seen a number of posts here of folks impressed with trop waves rolling off Africa, probably anticipating a strong storm from it. A more intense wave coming off the continent is not impressive to me at all. In fact it's usually the death knell of the system from my experience. Typically they will turn north into colder water very early and fizzle right out if they emerge off the coast too strong. You want weaker waves that roll off Africa and d'ont come together until they reach the warmer waters. This is how the monsters like Camille, Katrina, Andrew and Rita developed. Gloria was also similar. Of course any strong Bermuda HP will likely push them far south into the Carribean or below Florida. Other things that are the death knell to hurricanes are any ULL's in the tropics and any east coast trough. The ULL will shear it to death and the trough will either do that or curve it up the middle of the ocean before it reaches the shear area.

SAL has been fading

Still looks like a much deader season than forecast to me. These days they seem to name cloud masses with a few showers as storms. I'm talking about real storms not systems that reach 39mph for a few hours and get names via satellite estimation rather than direct measurement. The Atlantic so far has been hostile with dominant HP and ULL's strung out. You can write off any long track hurricane with ULL's around. This synoptic will have to change soon for an active season to develop. If it persists, and it's been this way all summer, it will either kill off the Cape Verde systems that come off Africa or force them very far south. Maybe this is a season where you get weak systems that form off of lingering fronts instead.

If this is going to be the well advertised active hurricane season, it should make itself well known in the next 4 weeks. Up to this point it has been quiet. There is some activity coming off Africa that looks interesting but that is a long way from the U.S. These systems have a better chance to make it across the ocean if they remain weak and develop as they get closer to the islands.