...WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING STRONG
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES...WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS TX
AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT EASTWARD
TODAY ACROSS THE MS/TN VALLEYS AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MULTIPLE WAVES OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AND LEAD TO A COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO.

...LA/MS/AL/TN...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF LA/AR/MS...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
SURFACE COLD FRONT. RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM
ADVECTION ARE LEADING TO DISCRETE CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH
NUMEROUS STORMS SHOWING MID LEVEL ROTATION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO AL AND TN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES THROUGH THE MORNING.

A FEW HOURS OF HEATING WILL LIKELY PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN MS...MUCH OF AL...AND
POTENTIALLY INTO MIDDLE TN. THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THIS EVENT...WITH THE RISK OF DAMAGING TORNADOES
AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN GA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

...MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER PARTS
OF MO/IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 90+ KNOT MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX NOSES INTO THE AREA. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND HELP TO DESTABILIZE
PARTS OF MO/IL/IND/KY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORECAST
QUESTION IN THIS AREA INVOLVES THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FARTHER
SOUTH AND WHETHER IT WILL IMPEDE MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE DAY.