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Kelli013
Anyone have a estimate of amount and timing? Thanks
icehater
On the Nam and ARW less than .25". GFS and NMM have us at .75-1.5". I'd trust the Nam and ARW a lot more and they have very similar simulated radars.
LongIslandCoastalWx
QUOTE (icehater @ May 17 2010, 12:19 PM) *
On the Nam and ARW less than .25". GFS and NMM have us at .75-1.5". I'd trust the Nam and ARW a lot more and they have very similar simulated radars.


Problem would be is that the NAM is the outlier at this point. From NWS Upton:

QUOTE
NAM IS NOW THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER AND HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS (WAS BRINGING LOW UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD LAST
NIGHT)
WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE REMAINING SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. NAM IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL THAT BRINGS THE LOW OUTSIDE
THE 40N 70W
BENCHMARK. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 12/16
ECMWF...WHICH HAD SUPPORT FROM THE 21Z/16 SREF AND 12Z/16 UKMET.
THE 00Z UKMET AND 03Z SREF HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY LEFT WITH THE
TRACK...SO THINK THE EC IS A GOOD COMPROMISE.
icehater
QUOTE (LongIslandCoastalWx @ May 17 2010, 01:13 PM) *
Problem would be is that the NAM is the outlier at this point.


I'm not paying much attention to it. Spring weather is boring as hell, especially after a year with the winter systems we had. But if the ARW fails to join in and stays with the Nam I'd worry about any other model verifying.
Stormchaser
Just returned from Disney World and the 90 degree heat down there. Back to 50 and rain, looks like a soaker tomorrow. The 18z NAM has now joined the GFS with 2"+ of rain for most of the area.
icehater
QUOTE (Stormchaser @ May 17 2010, 04:52 PM) *
Just returned from Disney World and the 90 degree heat down there. Back to 50 and rain, looks like a soaker tomorrow. The 18z NAM has now joined the GFS with 2"+ of rain for most of the area.


Very sharp cutoffs on that 18Z nam. This would be another feast or famine snow event in winter.
NittanyLion
I would say 0.25-0.50" in Northwestern areas, 0.50-1.0" central areas (Trenton-Passaic), 1-2" eastern areas (E of I-95).
icehater
0Z Nam is back to less than .25".

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_p60_060l.gif

And GFS just made a big jump toward the Nam. Definitely more but a big change on the GFS well toward the Nam:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_p60_060l.gif
lab94
as of now, not a drop of rain yet
Hurricaneff
0.10 here




































shark253
Very little rain. 52 & chilly.
icehater
Radar presentation very much looks like last nights 0Z nam and GFS runs. But Nam has now upped the ante on rain and future radar on TWC has widespread hvy rain developing in a few hours. Down here we've already exceeded the Nam with .52"
Stormchaser
QUOTE (icehater @ May 18 2010, 10:44 AM) *
Radar presentation very much looks like last nights 0Z nam and GFS runs. But Nam has now upped the ante on rain and future radar on TWC has widespread hvy rain developing in a few hours. Down here we've already exceeded the Nam with .52"



Yeah, radar estimated totals are way off as I've recorded 0.60" thus far yet the radar shows me in trace amounts. More convection blooming to our south; I'll be satisfied with 1" or more.
icehater
Rain here is falling at a significantly heavier rate than current radar shows. We should easily end up at 1-1.5" of rain here in central NJ, if not more. Meanwhile radar shows very heavy flooding rains up toward Snowamps area across to Binghampton.
Stormchaser
0.80" and 50 degrees now.
Virgaman
QUOTE (icehater @ May 18 2010, 06:01 PM) *
Rain here is falling at a significantly heavier rate than current radar shows. We should easily end up at 1-1.5" of rain here in central NJ, if not more. Meanwhile radar shows very heavy flooding rains up toward Snowamps area across to Binghampton.



YUP,

in the winter, snow missed me to the south and east, and now rain is missing me just to my west, i cant win lol.
lab94
.77" so far today
robbbs
Recorded 0.94" thus far. Moderate to heavy rain currently and for the last hour.
Virgaman
QUOTE (robbbs @ May 18 2010, 09:04 PM) *
Recorded 0.94" thus far. Moderate to heavy rain currently and for the last hour.



I will assume the GFS beat the Nam on this event.
lab94
QUOTE (robbbs @ May 18 2010, 04:04 PM) *
Recorded 0.94" thus far. Moderate to heavy rain currently and for the last hour.



.92" here now
rgwp96
.89 of rain, should probably finish at around 1 inch
bm55
A bit more rain than was forecasted, esp here up north, .85 so far with a chilly light-moderate rain falling.
Stormchaser
1.07".
NYBrit
Just had a very strong gust of wind. Is it supposed to get windy later or was this just a freak thing?
doncat
1.20 in. here today.
icehater
1.11 and still getting soaked in rain that radar fails to show. Meanwhile northern Maine hit 80 degrees today!
Stormchaser
Still drizzling but 1.12" looks like the total.
icehater
OT from this thread but an awesome T-storm in Texas being covered right now on TWC. Phenomenal wall clouds, inflow, sky presentation and a tornado trying to form. Well analyzed and better than any chase I ever saw.
weatherbowl
QUOTE (icehater @ May 18 2010, 08:20 PM) *
OT from this thread but an awesome T-storm in Texas being covered right now on TWC. Phenomenal wall clouds, inflow, sky presentation and a tornado trying to form. Well analyzed and better than any chase I ever saw.

Just put it on, some great pictures. A few days ago I was watching the Weather Channel and they were doing a live chase, it was very interesting. This could boost their ratings.
weatherbowl
Weather channel doing a great job, very interesting for anyone interested.
weatherbowl
.76 inch of rain here today, wind gusting to 25mph.
Stormchaser
QUOTE (icehater @ May 18 2010, 08:20 PM) *
OT from this thread but an awesome T-storm in Texas being covered right now on TWC. Phenomenal wall clouds, inflow, sky presentation and a tornado trying to form. Well analyzed and better than any chase I ever saw.



I happened to briefly turn on TWC and caught that segment as well. Phenomenal looking supercell with excellent coverage by Forbes and Cantore.
robbbs
Recorded 1.14" for today. Far more than models predicted.
icehater
QUOTE (weatherbowl @ May 18 2010, 09:17 PM) *
Weather channel doing a great job, very interesting for anyone interested.


We often see on radar how these storms pulse - weaken and then re-intensify to even stronger storms than they were. But we just see the radar presentation of that. TWC caught that visual presentation of those pulses very well and the analytical coverage was outstanding. This is the way the channel was when it first started out, allowing on air Mets to muse about what might happen as opposed to reading scripted prepared forecasts. I remember vividly a forecaster named Vince something or other back in the early 90's saying how he disagreed with the channels forecast and thought a snowstorm would hit NY and he was right. He left and became a forecaster at some midwest TV station but I often think the channels scripted forecasts with no tolerance for different opinion is what brought them down. In some ways the original TWC was like a weatherboard. Anyway that storm tonight had so much rain that the downdrafts from them kept interfering with the classic tornado formation. But the storm was an awesome sight.

This is vortex week so live coverage in probable tornado areas may be on several more times. Last year they caught a tornado that got so turned sideways that you actually could see inside the tornado.
NittanyLion
QUOTE (icehater @ May 18 2010, 10:30 PM) *
We often see on radar how these storms pulse - weaken and then re-intensify to even stronger storms than they were. But we just see the radar presentation of that. TWC caught that visual presentation of those pulses very well and the analytical coverage was outstanding. This is the way the channel was when it first started out, allowing on air Mets to muse about what might happen as opposed to reading scripted prepared forecasts. I remember vividly a forecaster named Vince something or other back in the early 90's saying how he disagreed with the channels forecast and thought a snowstorm would hit NY and he was right. He left and became a forecaster at some midwest TV station but I often think the channels scripted forecasts with no tolerance for different opinion is what brought them down. In some ways the original TWC was like a weatherboard. Anyway that storm tonight had so much rain that the downdrafts from them kept interfering with the classic tornado formation. But the storm was an awesome sight.

This is vortex week so live coverage in probable tornado areas may be on several more times. Last year they caught a tornado that got so turned sideways that you actually could see inside the tornado.


Was watching that as well. Fantastic coverage and footage. I am taking an increased interest this year as well as last year since my school has students and professors taking part in Vortex2. And especially this year as my girlfriend is out there as well. I will try and post some pictures from them as well when they get them up.
lab94
1.11" was the total here. Mist stoped about 30 min ago
Hurricaneff
0.91" here
shark253
Cloudy and chilly around 51. Rainfall total was 1''.
bm55
1.15 total here.
wishcast_hater
I watch Fox 5 every morning before i head out to work. Mike Woods predicted .10 of an inch of rain. What was central Parks final tally? I know he was waaay off. Also if you can post a link for central pk almanac that has all the weather history that would be great. I couldnt find it on NOAA.
icehater
QUOTE (wishcast_hater @ May 20 2010, 05:59 AM) *
I watch Fox 5 every morning before i head out to work. Mike Woods predicted .10 of an inch of rain. What was central Parks final tally? I know he was waaay off. Also if you can post a link for central pk almanac that has all the weather history that would be great. I couldnt find it on NOAA.


Go into observed weather for recent and local data/records for historic. It gives you Central park and 5 other locations to choose from. Newark being there is surprising to me as I'd have thought that was Mt Holly.

http://www.weather.gov/climate/local_data.php?wfo=okx
wishcast_hater
Thank you icehater. Seems they predicted .10 of an inch and we got over 1".
bm55
QUOTE (wishcast_hater @ May 20 2010, 05:59 AM) *
I watch Fox 5 every morning before i head out to work. Mike Woods predicted .10 of an inch of rain. What was central Parks final tally? I know he was waaay off. Also if you can post a link for central pk almanac that has all the weather history that would be great. I couldnt find it on NOAA.

Try Accuweather.com and click on month then click on view. It gives you actual highs and lows along with daily precip totals for all the past months.
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