Looks like a strong ridge and a lot of heat for the eastern third of the nation builds in next week and potentially a hot Memorial day weekend. This heat looks to build well into eastern Canada so no backdoor fronts if the data today verifies. Let's track it and see if it happens.


Early week start of the heat building:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grb...8&cu=latest

Later in the week:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...1712!!/

GFS presentation:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_slp_252l.gif

Ice,

I'd have to agree at this point. Pattern should break to a much warmer one in the Eastern US by the final week of May. Models are in fairly good consensus and indices such as the NAO/AO will be rising. Wouldn't be surprised to see our first heat wave of the season occur the end of May or early June to break in our hot summer on the way (IMO).

By the looks of the pattern progression, I think we'll be in the heat before Memorial Day weekend, possibly approaching 90 as early as Tuesday of next week. We've got easterly flow w/ surface HP ridge near 40N latitude this weekend; high gradually builds south and weakens with time so that much warmer 850mb temps bubble southeastward from Canada. In fact on a W/NWLY downsloping flow this heat spell has the chance to really go to town next week. Will be interesting to watch unfold.

Agree - next week looks hot. Plus I think we'll surpass expected high temps tomorrow and Friday too. I'll turn the pool heater up tomorrow for the first time and get the water to 83--84.

I plan on opening up my pool next friday, mine is above ground, been thinking of getting a heater for it, instead of using the solar cover, its a PIA to roll up

Virg..I also have above ground pool, but it's a oval, so if you have a oval you can do what I did, at the far end of the pool on both end sides I installed 8x8's into the ground with a 12x2 shelf on top of each one, making sure the shelf is level with the pool, then I purchase the built in pool solar panle reel and bolted that down onto the shelfs, so actually what you are doing is making your above ground solar blanket install as a in gorund pool..

yes mine is also oval 16 by 32, thanks for the advice

We're already seeing MOS guidance underestimate high temps. Today was very warm - high of 82.6. Tomorrow will be mid 80s at least, cool off for Sat,Sun, Mon, then the heat and humidity arrive in a big way for the last week of May!

Storm,

My general rule of thumb is add 4-5 degrees in April-June to all high temps forecasted when winds are west. Exceptions are only cool unstable canadian air days when forecasted highs can easily be overstated. Agree - easy mid 80's tomorrow in a lot of places. My pool is warming, now at 75.

Ice, agreed. Even with SSE winds I've got a temp of 82.8 right now, already above the forecast high. Pool was 68 early this morning but should be above 80 with the strong sun and the heater on.

Next week we'll have a sub-tropical low approach from the SE, which will keep temperatures moderated in the 80s, but once the upper ridge pushes that cut-off swd by Wed-Thurs, we can really go to town with big heat. Obviously won't last long at this time of year but we've been in a warm stretch since March 1st. Very indicative of a hot summer IMO although surprising many forecast models have a cool summer for much of the country, along with NOAA. I know JB's on my side with the heat, so we'll see what happens.

My forecast highs for next week have dropped considerably. Near 90 for next Tuesday and Wednesday is now low 80s for highs and even has me cooler into the 70s for highs by week's end. So much for this heat. Anyways, I hope we can get some heat next week. I think I need a tan.

So your read of a ten day forecast is your bible. Everything is set in stone, now. Remember how those 60's forecast worked out to 85-95 heat the last time you posted something like this. Next week will come down to a LP in the south and a possible BD front NE of us. On days models favor that BD front (and models are prone to favor it) they'll cool temps. On days they d'ont then they'll forecast temps to 90. And as for reading temp forecasts just look at how easily todays temps have been exceeded within 24 hours of forecast vs 7-10 days.

Don't start again. The last time time I created that thread, you gave me a hard time. Yeah, how did that go?

I'm at 79.5 degrees, even with the winds out of the E.

The long range ECMWF (interpretated by pro met Brett Anderson) shows the unseasonable warm conditions continuing in the east for the next several weeks.

Give me a break...who said everything is in stone. We'll see how hot it gets next week. You are the one who makes it sound like this heat is in stone. Wait till early next week and then start talking about heat. Yes, the chance does exist, but nothing is ever a guarantee when it comes to weather, so what makes you so sure this heat is coming. Weather is Full of Surprises!

Where did you come from? You are still here, I thought you once said to this board that you are leaving because somebody upset you.

I've been here the whole time.

Then I guess you should stick to generic TWC, accuweather, and broadcast media forecasts which rarely veer far away from averages more than a couple days in advance. On this weather board we tell you the potentials of what can happen 7-10+ days in advance, outlining the meteorology behind the possibilities as well. Honestly - I wouldn't know half of what I know today regarding meteorology if I didn't read weather boards. If you don't mind having only 2 or less day notice of events, then just ignore the discussion between Ice and I re next week's heat. Just as in wintertime when we tell a snowstorm is coming 7 days prior yet your favorite radio station or TWC indicates flurries until 24 hours beforehand. Same idea. What you get here is invaluable information about pattern changes far in the future which apparently you don't appreciate very much.

Storm...I have nothing against you forecasting long range or anyone else. I just happen not to believe in any long range forecast because nothing proves to me that it is a guarantee. If you can prove to me 120% accuracy about a weather phenomenon and it happens, then I will believe in long range, but until that happens, I do not bother with long range. I only look at 2 or possibly 3 days ahead in a weather forecast. I have seen your work on here and I do respect it and do appreciate it.

You should go back and read your posts because it doesn't seem you understand what you write. And the last time Danny posted heat was coming in you did jump down his throat for it based on a forecast that was so far in left field vs reality (off by as much as 30 degrees for about 5 straight days) that it was a joke.

No..I dont think so...I understand perfectly well what I write. Maybe it is you who does not understand what you write. As for your friend Danny, well, excuse me for picking on your danny here, but, I am afraid this is a "Free Country". Freedom of Speech.

Well here's what you wrote:

My forecast highs for next week have dropped considerably. Near 90 for next Tuesday and Wednesday is now low 80s for highs and even has me cooler into the 70s for highs by week's end. So much for this heat.

That certainly reads as a cancel event and a 100% buy into a forecast to me.

Ice..I am not stated that it is 100%. I am simply writing what I saw and hope that it does not verify because I do want the warmth next week, especially being memorial weekend . As I have stated before, nothing is set as stone days and days away. I will never believe long range outlooks, unless evidence proves me wrong. You on the other hand disagrees with me and that is fine by me. A forecast can only be taken seriously only from a short period (2 -3 days), not 10+. For Example, would you set a Barbecue Party at your house for lots and lots of people 7+ days away, if you see a forecast for your area calling for Sunny skies for that certain day? I would certainly not. Now, if the forecast calls sunny skies for your Barbecue Party 2 or even 3 days prior to that event, wouldn't you feel more confident? I would certain be more confident. Again, I want to emphasize that this is only my opinion and everyone has a right to their own beliefs.

FWIW, you do come off as a little confrontational and very sarcastic and are always looking for anything to put down either Danny's or Ice's predictions.

Thanks Mike, glad I'm not the only one seeing it. I'm also sure he has no clue places got as high as 94 today, some 15 degrees over yesterdays forecasts.

Just wanted to add my take on this subject. I've learned that AW and other long range forecasts more than 3 days in advance are useless because i think that these forecasts are only based on one model. Take the winter for example. They will usually never predict a big snowstorm more than 3 days out. I've also learned that the info i get from this board with the knowledge of Ice, Storm, Robbbs and others is far more accurate in the long range than local forecasts. Heck, they can predict storms coming 10 days- 2 weeks in advance.

yep!! So Mike, when is that keg party??

Exactly my point as well.

Hey how about tonight!

Nam looks very warm to hot for much of next week. Trop fetch of air off the cut off SE ocean low will make the Carolinas and Georgia noticably cooler than us and the moisture feed around the low tomorrow and Monday looks strongest well S and then W of us where some trop downpours can easily occur and produce flooding rains as they potentially train. New England may get hotter than us.

Six weeks to two months from now that cut off storm would have the chance to become a significant hurricane, but 70's water precludes that now.

Cut off storm and 570dm thickness allowing 90 heat in our area and areas very far north by Wednesday. Note the cooler 564dm thickness in the SE thanks to the ocean storm.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_slp_084l.gif

How's saturday the 29th looking at this time..have family picnic at wantagh park

Tuesday has mid to upper 80's potential, away from the immediate coast. Wednesday has 90's potential away from the immediate coastline. The timing of the backdoor front depends on which model you look at, but I don't think it will happen until Wednesday niight.

Agree, I think the backdoor won't come through until sometime Thursday afternoon; Wed and Thurs have 90+ potential.

Today's another gloomy one. 61F and fog.

unless I'm looking at things all wrong (which is entirely possible), the weekend is looking pretty godd - minus the heat though.

Probably. When I started this thread models had the ridge really building and holding in with persistent near 90 or 90's temps starting Wed and lastiing into the weekend. Now it looks like it gets pretty warm tomorrow and hot Wed-Thurs before a BD front dtrops us back. Models saw the right synoptic 8 days ago but had it pesrsisting with the ridge building well into SE Canada but it's that part of the outlook that they now have backed off on. Nonetheless the pattern seen on the models early on seems to be establishing and it likely gets hot right after this weekend.

BTW - if you want it warm head to Fairbanks. Could well be 80-85 all weekend up there in central Alaska. Meanwhile up in Barrow the snow has really gotten filthy as it melts down. ocean still frozen but sometimes the tide has brought the water closer in to shore as it wams further out. Temps still haven't topped 25 up here but the worst of all possible sun angles has still melted the snow through a lot of overcast days. I'll tell you though when they have crysral clear blkue skies the sun shining on that frozen ocean is pretty. The snow on land is getting dirty because this place is a desert and it's windy so once the ground gets bare in larger patches that dirt blows onto the snow. Much of this snow is on the ground since late October and early November. 8" of snow lasts 8 months up there.

http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam

Here's one fom 3/21. There have been some much more striking ones than this but I never saved them. Imagine though that this landscape deteriorated to the current link even with temps rarely crossing 20 degrees and with many night time lows near or below zero. Shows you the strength of the sun even in a frozen world where it's often blocked by cloud cover.

Spent the day in Westhampton on eastern Long Island. A nice day out there today, a completely sunny afternoon.

Nice call by some (ice, storm) on the mid-week heat wave. While Upton changed its forecast highs like a yo-yo, others maintained hot temps were on the way. Latest forecast is now 91 here for Wednesday (higher in many other spots). Some thunderstorms end of the week from an approaching cold front and then a delightful holiday weekend -- sun and 70's.

So what are the chances of some nice big storms on thurs night around 8PM??????????


Wife and her girl friends are going to see Bon Jovi open the new Giants stadium

Yes very nice call by ice and storm. I was kind of hoping the heat would be more lasting but if this is the trend for the summer it's not bad. A few days of heat, then some storms and then a break for a few days. We probably won't have these BD fronts for much longer though so who knows.

Satellite, that's exactly what I think will happen as we get into June and particularly July/August. We'll get plenty of big heat and for longer stretches than we've been accustomed to over recent summers. It is only late May - still very difficult for heat to sustain itself in the Northeast due to cold ocean waters. Really through June 15th you're hard pressed to get a torch more than 1-2 days in duration. But we've seen the above normal temp regime all spring, since March 1st, (even May will finish above normal temp wise, making this the hottest spring on record for NYC), which sets the stage for a 1973/1966/1988/1995 type summer season with many more 90 degree days than the last few years. If I had to make a guess, all of us should record at least 20 90F highs with the potential for up to 25-30 in the typically warmer locations (this includes September, as early fall is looking warm as well). For our area anything 20+ is a lot, 25+ impressive, and 30-35+ record breaking territory. All those analogs with the rapid switch to weak nina by July sure had plenty of warmth to go around.

WRT T-storms Robbbs and Lab, things could get very interesting Thursday afternoon/evening ahead of the backdoor front. Impressive parameters for maybe some multi-cellular clusters or bows propagating north to south from NY State into NJ/NYC late Thursday, probably right around 801pm when the Bon Jovi concert starts.

Now I want to go, wet t-shirt show for the win

76 right now.

85.5 here

78 and gorgeous outside. Damnnnnnnn!!!!

Great points but that just goes to show you how extraodinary that April heat was. We really haven't had so many BD fronts this year. It's more of slow moving storms with ocean winds that preserved cool air here. There have been many days where northern NE up thru Caribou and into SE Canada reached temps 25+ over us in those storm systems. Even Sunday and Monday Caribou had 80 temps while we were so chilly. That never happens with BD fronts. So this year may be even easier to erode BD fronts than most years as the pattern has not really favored them in the first place.

Sitting at the golf corse while thee kids take their lessons,man it is nice. Cooled off alittle and not a cloud in site

86 here and only 76 in Central Park.

84 here and it feels a bit humid.

A bit humid here also but tolerable with dewpoint at 61. Tomorrow everyone should max out at 90-92 with downsloping winds off the mountains.

Ice -- agreed, the April heat was remarkable and this spring as a whole as been unprecedented in terms of the extremely early leaf-out, a string of 85-90 degree weather in both April and May, and temp departures > +10 for the March/April combined period!