...NORTHEAST...
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN
A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
QUEBEC/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CHARACTERIZED BY
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE FORCING AND FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD BECOME ENHANCED BY
FAVORABLE SHEAR BENEATH AT LEAST MODEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE
MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY FROM MIDDAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WEST/SOUTHWESTWARD.

for Thurs...

dont think ive ever seen it that high for area or even other areas.

Some of the storms that drop almost straight in from the north are the worst we get. So a lot of potential but the Nam has nothing for us and pushes the precip and storm chances further west.

My main worry w/ tomorrow is not lack of instability but axis of convection. The highest Theta-E values may align just SW of the NYC area, from western NY state ssewd into EPA, MD and DE, with NJ being on the eastern fringe of activity. We'll see how tomorrow goes as this potential looks very interesting. Thermodynamics are there although dew points could be a little bit higher. But you can't expect 70+ TD's in late May -- still pretty early for that. However surface instability, CAPE/MUCAPE, lifted indices, and favorable unidirectional winds aloft will support bow echos again tomorrow w/ wind damage likely the primary threat. I'm excited for the first big boomers of the season! Just a little concerned the svr may pass just west of us.

Wow the wind is roaring out there right now, Severe Thunderstorm warning woke me up

US51 KOKX 270539
SVROKX
NYC103-270630-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0013.100527T0539Z-100527T0630Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
139 AM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SUFFOLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 230 AM EDT...

* AT 132 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 16
MILES NORTH OF NORTHPORT...OR NEAR BRIDGEPORT...AND MOVING SOUTH AT
40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CENTERPORT...PORT JEFFERSON...STONY BROOK...SMITHTOWN...COMMACK...
CENTEREACH...CORAM...DIX HILLS...HAUPPAUGE...FARMINGVILLE...
RONKONKOMA...BRENTWOOD...MEDFORD...DEER PARK AND HOLBROOK

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM THURSDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

LAT...LON 4096 7340 4093 7335 4093 7330 4091 7323
4092 7322 4094 7316 4097 7316 4098 7311
4096 7310 4097 7308 4096 7304 4080 7296
4073 7340
TIME...MOT...LOC 0538Z 348DEG 38KT 4107 7324

$$

PW

No rain here last night, all to my east. This afternoon it could all be to my west.

NMM model certainly favors some severe weather, especially just west of NYC, but Nam says not much. With NE winds in already I have to side with the nam.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...ef_l_loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...sw_p48_048l.gif

went from 80*F to 76*F in a 8 mile span on the way to work this am, and that was heading to a more urban setting. was noticible as i felt the difference first.

Wind is off the water (east) now.

Temp went down from 78 to 72 in the past few hours.

Agree I think svr chances are done for the city, E NJ, points east. Maybe western Jersey can get some action.

I've fallen from 79 at 6am down to 65 now with an east wind. Low clouds are socked in w/ a cool east breeze. Backdoor front coming through much earlier than forecast; mid 80s won't be reached today.

Let's play find the BD cold front:

FWIW the NMM had yesterday's severe weather nearly perfectly modelled.

Gotta admit, feels refreshing today after dealing with yesterday's heat. Currently at 70 with cloudy skies. Too bad Thunderstorms are not looking likely today. I could use a few nice rumbles.

81 under mostly sunny skies here

Mesoscale Discussion, Watch Likely:



...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 17Z...

OVERNIGHT MCS THAT SURGED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAS ENHANCED
NELY SFC WINDS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY...SWD ACROSS MUCH OF NJ/DE.
EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL MAINTAIN THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE INLAND WHILE
AREAS WEST OF THE WIND SHIFT WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID HEATING OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS A REMNANT MCS
OVER ERN ONTARIO WHICH WILL SOON INFLUENCE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS UPSTATE NY. IT APPEARS SFC-BASED PARCELS WILL REACH
THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WHEN READINGS RISE INTO THE MID 80S
AND SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE 17-18Z TIME
FRAME...DEVELOPING/SPREADING SWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION LATER.
LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...AS WILL STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS.

temp down to 69 here

Overcast and 73 here. Big difference from yesterday's high of 94.

82 degrees under mostly sunny skies
Severe Thunderstorm Watch just issued

74.2 dpt 64 hum 71%

84 degrees here, very convective look to the sky

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
eastern Northampton County in eastern Pennsylvania...
this includes the city of Easton...
south central Monroe County in northeast Pennsylvania...
northern Hunterdon County in northwest New Jersey...
western Warren County in northwest New Jersey...
north central Bucks County in southeast Pennsylvania...

* until 300 PM EDT

* at 157 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail. This
storm was located near East Bangor... or 16 miles north of Easton...
and moving south at 20 mph.

* The severe thunderstorm will be near...
East Bangor... Bangor and Pen Argyl around 205 PM EDT...
Belvidere around 215 PM EDT...
Roxburg around 225 PM EDT...
Harmony around 230 PM EDT...
Forks around 240 PM EDT...
Easton around 245 PM EDT...


First one of the season for me...

temp back up to 78

HRRR shows some really intense thunderstorms developing along the old line of showers across upstate NY and propagating southward right into NJ and NE PA (around 4-5PM):

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/...mp;animate=true

Time Sensitive:

I've been watching the cell that the warning was issued for move by just to my east. Not a great amount of lightning with it. The outflow boundary associated with it has just passed over me and the temp has dropped from 87 to 81 here.

Storms developing to the west and Northeast, but none to the North/Northwest, which is how their moving, so looks like I'll miss out on these. Can hear some faint thunder from one of them.

I can hear the one to my NW. Lost power for 2 min.

Now another big one just to my west.

Looks like a few tring to pop to your north, then slide down on you

Hoping so, the one to the west is strengthening and wunderground is picking up a mesocyclone signature. Very loud thunder coming from that one.

There's a whole crop of storms grouped together looks like they'll reach me in about an hour or so. First big boomers of the year maybe.

Thundering now, dark skies, some intense looking storms coming from the nw.
http://www.accuweather.com/enhanced-radar.asp

LOL and the wife is on her way to the bon jovi concert

Had rain and some lightning/thunder, but the meaningful storms have missed left and right.

Looks like some nice hail has been coming out of those storms over Pike County, PA in the past hour.

I have a pool diver here who just arrived who's looking for a pool leak. I warned him about that line of storms. We'll see what happens.

I like this radar

I hope he finds it quick!

They might lose their intensity as they move closer to the coast due to maritime air.

Pool guy just left. Way too much lightning going on. We'll try tomorrow.

Looking at current radar the next hour is looking very interesting for my locale.

Getting rocked here now.

I having my turn with it now. Lot's of CG action.

barely got anything last night and today looks like a miss for me,i got the worst sunburn bubbling"skin poisoning" and would love for it to rain so i know im not missing out on anything.

This radar profile fits the NMM run from 0Z very nicely.

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interac...?animation=true

Getting dark here but we're in cool maritime air here. Up in Tarrytown around 4:45 it was 15 degrees warmer and quite humid. That area seemed to go back and forth from an E wind to a W wind all day. At lunch tome it was cool and clammy and 4 hours later the ocean front must have moved back east because it was a totally different day.

Thunder and lightning right now.

Robbbs, my pool scared me this spring as I found a lot of dirt edging out between the coping and stone patio as it broke the deck seal that covers that area. Oddly it was happening at night with no pool power on and it was only happening at certain times. Then a light bulb went off in my wife's brain and she asked if it could be the sprinkler system. Then I remembered that this was the first year the guy who shut my sprinklers took out the 9V battery back up. Because of that the system defaulted back to factory 10 minutes per zone setting when i turned it on. Since I had the sprinklers off during rain events or when the lawn was still wet it was those days that I had no problem. I thought I was still safe though because I had the sprinkler guy cut power to the zones near the pool. But he only cut 1 of the 2 zones. I went over and checked and sure enough both were set to 10 minutes and my zone 6 failed to work because of the electric being cut while zone 7, when I manually put it on, immediately flooded that crack and brought up the dirt.

World of fun having a pool, isn't it? Always something going on but great to have in the end,