http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/2...aneoutlook.html

until they change it

What a joke this is. They cannot forecast the next three days with a great deal of accuracy, but they can predict how many named storms. What a waste of time.

I guess I should cancel my cruise for late July.......

I highly recommend Joe Bastardi's video on "La Nina is NOT the driving force of the hurricane season" for those that have access. He makes some excellent points, disagreeing w/ the NOAA methodology behind their outlook. The Atlantic water temperature profile is much more important than what goes on in the tropical pacific, as we saw in the hyper-active hurricane season of 2005. A neutral/warm signal in the Pacific was present, yet we had 28 named storms, due to a similar tripole appearance in Atlantic SST's - warm north, cool central, warm near the equator. This creates a natural tendency for heat transfer from the tropics northward into the temperate regions, enhancing tropical cyclone activity.

It made a lot of sense and credit must be given as IMO Joe Bastardi is probably one of the best at pattern recognition in the industry.

As far as NOAA's range, it's pretty difficult to end up wrong with that one. 14 named storms up to as much as 23 named storms. If that was a snowstorm forecast, it'd be the difference between missing one day of work/school or everything shut down for almost the entire week.

agreed 120%.