...S CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE MODEL DATA CONCERNING SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES AND PROCESSES THAT WILL IMPACT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PROBABLY WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000
J/KG/ WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO THE SOUTH OF A STALLING WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE REGION...AT LEAST IN AREAS NOT IMPACTED BY
REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM TODAY/TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MEAN DEEP LAYER
FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL BECOME RATHER WEAK...WITH UPPER FORCING
UNCERTAIN..AND PROBABLY ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK. IF
STABILIZING OUTFLOWS DO NOT ADVANCE TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...THEN THE ENVIRONMENT
MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORM
CLUSTERS ACROSS PARTS OF OHIO AND WEST VIRGINA INTO SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA/NORTHERN VIRGINIA...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

Impressive squall line on the Nam for early tomorrow evening.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_ref_030l.gif

Most things I have seen today shows the line develope just too late for us in NWJ. Look out from NEJ down to the SW

The NMM is also big to the south showing a big cluster developing on the squall line.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...sw_ref_036l.gif

looks more impressive then yesterdays storms.

Hey guys, haven't been on in a while...any blizzards on the 320 GFS yet ? LOL and just kidding.

Have a question for you guys, what is the best radar to use for tracking the storms. I had a great link on my other laptop that crashed a couple weeks ago and I can't retrieve the data yet and find the link for it.

Any help, would be, uhhh, helpful !

Thanks guys and hope everyone is doing well,
Mark

www.weatherunderground.com

there radar is pretty good id say one of the best for tracking storms,been out fishing at all roughsurf?

Unfortunately not. I have a very bad back that I'm trying to have the surgeons fix me up and it's not working that well. So fishing and walking in the sand is very tough for me. Can't play golf either, so that is a bummer. Would love to get out there and I'm itching to go...I still might make a trip to hang with my brother as we haven't done that in a while, well, actually since our dad passed away, so it will be good times with him and I guess I'll could "suck it up" for one day !

How about you ?

Mark

...and thanks for the link. I was on that one, but don't think I drilled down far enough to get all the options I was looking for.

I see you're a Giants fan, did you buy the PSL and get tickets ?

Sorry for the "off topic" garbage, but what the heck, it's after 11 on a Wednesday !

Slight Risk still today:



...NERN STATES...
EARLY MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND LEE-TROUGH WILL BE IMPETUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BY LATE MORNING WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED AND
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM PARTS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MLCAPES WILL BE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND GIVEN
PROXIMITY TO 30-40 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE BASE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL RESULT IN BOWING LINE SEGMENTS/ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

We also have Saturday to watch:

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS PLACED THE
ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

They called me about buying a PSL too but it's $7500. They may eventually have some at $4000 but still too much.

Sat. looks better than today for big storms.

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM EDT THU JUN 3 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CONNECTICUT
MASSACHUSETTS
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK
RHODE ISLAND
SOUTHERN VERMONT
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST
OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS TO 10 MILES WEST OF NEW YORK CITY NEW
YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS.. MLCAPES TO 2500 J/KG...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30-40 KT
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WEAKLY ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.


...IMY

Radar is dead. Some storms were over CT earlier this afternoon otherwise very quiet.

Just noticed the serve thunderstorm watch has been taken down for the Hudson Valley, New York City and Northern Jersey.

Thunderstorms remind me of snowstorms in a way.

Usually when the SPC forecasts a big day we end up w/ nothing, and vice versa. Works almost every time. I knew we were dead in the water when the winds shifted to NW around 2pm and skies went from towering thunderheads to clear blue skies. Very stable out there now w/ anything but a convective look to the sky. I'm more impressed with Saturday.

By the way - notice how the GFS has underestimated temps all week. I've been 85F or higher for highs since Sunday, 88F today. Tomorrow and Saturday both have 90 potential prior to frontal passage saturday night.

DC area is getting hammered right now.

Totally agree. The GFS had this as a cool week actually with temps in the 70's all week as late as last weekend. Then it had a major temp drop supposedly after todays frontal passage and many TV Mets kept following it which is why on TV we kept seeing 70's as high temp forecasts Friday and Saturday. Those forecasts are now badly blown as upper 80's to 90 are a given now for both days. It is a dreadful model for this time of year and any 10 day forecast off of it is useless. Euro and Nam are the only two models you can really use right now.

LOL and my kid is heading out on a dinner cruise out of BWI at 6pm. LOL

Have not had any substantial rain here in a while, nothing today. Was on Dune Rd in Westhampton Beach today, the sun didn't come out until mid afternoon. One good hurricane and many of those expensive houses will be getting severe damage, simply not enough protection from a raging ocean that a hurricane will cause.

Yea I actually can't remember the last time we had a wet ground here in Flushing. When storms have hit the tri-state, the city has missed wide right.
I hope we get slammed on Saturday night.

good thing I decided to water my lawn

Get dressed B!tch! We have to go meet the man for lunch!!!