Full Version: Accuweather forecasting 101 degrees on June 17?
NYC Metro Weather Forums > Weather Discussion > NYC Metropolitan Area Weather Discussion and Prediction
thats gotta be an error
Yeah, I looked at different cities. Philly at 105, Richmond at 107, I'm at 104. It has to be a mistake.
Accuweather with those 15 day forcasts just open themselves up for more ridicule. I believe after day 5 those are just GFS forcasts with no meteorologist input. I remember something I heard Elliot Abrams say years ago that any forecast given out after 5 days with such specificity is meaningless. That was more or less his quote.
QUOTE (LongIslandCoastalWx @ Jun 3 2010, 02:37 PM) 
Yeah, I looked at different cities. Philly at 105, Richmond at 107, I'm at 104. It has to be a mistake.
Computer glitch. Only the GFS goes out that far and it doesn't show anything that supports that heat. Now the Euro which cuts off around the 13th is indeed showing a strong Bermuda HP development entering that period but as usuall in summer the cold bias of the GFS conflicts with that. Typically to top 100 we need a hot HP and dry with downsloping NW winds anyway, not a Bermuda HP, which brings lesser heat but much greater humidity. Also the forecasts days before make no sense whatsoever vs the heat on the 17th.
Spoke with Jesse Ferrell on Facebook, who works for Accuweather. he said it was probably a computer bug or something, and hopefully it's fixed with the next run, which I believe is the 00Z GFS run that they use verbatim for those 15 day forecasts.
QUOTE (doncat @ Jun 3 2010, 02:39 PM)
Accuweather with those 15 day forcasts just open themselves up for more ridicule. I believe after day 5 those are just GFS forcasts with no meteorologist input. I remember something I heard Elliot Abrams say years ago that any forecast given out after 5 days with such specificity is meaningless. That was more or less his quote.
At this time of year the GFS temp forecasts are pretty useless after 48 hours. The 5 day rule is much better in winter than summer for the GFS.
It's alreadt fixed.
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