...MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND...
A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NERN
STATES SATURDAY. ON THE SRN END OF THE TROUGH...AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY MIDDAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC NEWD
INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER 60S F. AS SFC TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND MOVE
EWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS AT 21Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 KT
RANGE SUGGESTING A SUPERCELL THREAT WILL EXIST. ALTHOUGH SUPERCELLS
MAY PRODUCE HAIL...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY BE THE GREATER THREAT
ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS CAN CONGEAL INTO A BOWING LINE-SEGMENT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS PLACED THE
ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY... A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

Lots of heavy storms and rain coming up for the Hudson valley.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_p60_060l.gif

This is nice.





6z Nam shifted south with the heavy precip.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_p48_048l.gif

Were did you get that map from Met? Looks very intriguing

Never mind- Found it

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN CONNECTICUT
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
EASTERN NEW YORK
FAR NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
VERMONT

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF BURLINGTON
VERMONT TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF POUGHKEEPSIE NEW YORK. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NY. AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
SHOULD DESTABILIZE FURTHER WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND WEAK COOLING
ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HELP
INITIATE MORE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THOUGH LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE
LOWER 1 TO 2 KM AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATES A SUPERCELL OR
TWO MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.


...IMY

Very impressive looking picture for tomorrow afternoon, potentially, dare I say it, one of the better threats in awhile for tomorrow. Assuming we can get some morning destabilization via sunshine, temps into the low-mid 80s w/ TD's near 70, MUCAPE values should surpass 1500-2000 J/KG, maybe up to 2500 J/KG. This coupled with strong shearing of 55-65 kts via the mid level jet and pressure falls associated with the surface low, should be sufficient for widespread convection in the forms of multicellular clusters, bow echos producing wind damage, or a few isolated supercells. As you know supercells in the Northeast are akin to snowstorms in Norfolk VA, so approach with caution. Helicity is extremely favorable, 400 m2/s2, meaning there's plenty of turning winds as we head up in the atmosphere, conducive for wall clouds, funnel clouds, or isolated weak tornado development. My main concern is wind damage in the forecasted environment but be on the look out for some scary looking cloud formations tomorrow afternoon.

What can go wrong -- morning convection could be ongoing in PA, and if the cloud debris and residual weakening T-storms impact us late tonight or tomorrow morning, that could put a damper on destabilization and thus afternoon severe weather opportunity. IMO severe t-storm forecasting is probably the most difficult out of any type of weather, even harder than winter storm forecasting. So many different variables that can affect the outcome.

Some weak T-Storms developing in Jersey now

they keep diein off

got thunder in the distance now

Dutchess and Ulster counties had a Tornado Watch this afternoon.

There was some nice vivid C2G and C2C lightning with very dark clouds around Fishkill and Wappingers Falls came back to Newburgh the clouds seem a bit lighter, but still had a nice heavy downpour.