...NEW ENGLAND AND SERN NY/NJ TODAY...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...NOW OVER
SRN QUE...THAT SHOULD DRIVE DIFFUSE COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH
E/SE OFF THE N ATLANTIC CST EARLY TONIGHT. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
LIKELY WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF FRONT/TROUGH THIS AFTN...WITH SBCAPE
INCREASING TO AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO ME.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF EXISTING STORMS ALONG
TROUGH...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT/TROUGH BY EARLY AFTN.
COUPLED WITH 30-35 KT WLY MID LVL FLOW AND ASCENT WITH UPR
DISTURBANCE...EXPECT A FEW BROKEN LINES/SMALL CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW MARGINAL SUPERCELLS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND/SVR
HAIL THROUGH SUNSET.

TUESDAY:



...UPR OH VLY INTO MID ATLANTIC ...
MOIST...WSWLY LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF GRT LKS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SFC HEATING...WILL DESTABILIZE THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY. COUPLED WITH
ASCENT PROVIDED BY TROUGH...EXPECT SCTD CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STORMS BY
MID AFTN ALONG LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS/WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN
OH/NRN KY INTO WV/MD AND VA. A BAND OF STORMS ALSO MAY FORM ALONG
WAA AXIS THROUGH CNTRL NY/PA. DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN FROM OH/KY INTO WV. A MORE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WILL EXIST OVER AND E OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM MD/NRN VA INTO
NY/PA...CLOSER TO UPR TROUGH. THERE...A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION
TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

ANZ335-338-345-355-CTZ005-009-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>078-080-230915-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-
HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
404 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WOULD OCCUR LATE
IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

Rain Delay at Yankee Stadium right now, nothing severe in our neck of the woods yet

Not much activity here - just partly cloudy skies.

Nice band forming across Long Island - Could tops around 35K feet with some small hail. Special marine warning up

That line just missed me here on Staten Island.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
427 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

NYZ077>081-202130-
NASSAU-NORTHEAST SUFFOLK-NORTHWEST SUFFOLK-SOUTHEAST
SUFFOLK-SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK-
427 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...

AT 424 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FAIRFIELD TO NORTHPORT TO HUNTINGTON TO OYSTER BAY TO GARDEN CITY...
OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF STONY BROOK TO
NORTHPORT TO HUNTINGTON TO OYSTER BAY TO GARDEN CITY...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
NEAR WOODBURY BY 435 PM.
NEAR PLAINVIEW BY 440 PM.
NEAR WANTAGH BY 445 PM.
NEAR PORT JEFFERSON BY 450 PM.
NEAR MOUNT SINAI BY 455 PM.
NEAR RONKONKOMA BY 500 PM.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...VERY
HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...COULD CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS... AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4072 7373 4089 7358 4089 7348 4094 7349
4091 7341 4096 7340 4091 7323 4093 7316
4095 7316 4098 7312 4096 7310 4098 7308
4095 7265 4078 7284 4071 7323 4069 7326
4066 7335 4065 7348

$$

GOODMAN

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NYC103-202130-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0022.100620T2039Z-100620T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
439 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SUFFOLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

* AT 437 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PORT JEFFERSON...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MOUNT SINAI BY 445 PM...
CORAM BY 450 PM...
MIDDLE ISLAND AND ROCKY POINT BY 455 PM...
YAPHANK BY 500 PM...
BROOKHAVEN NATIONAL LABORATORY AND WADING RIVER BY 505 PM...
MASTIC AND SHIRLEY BY 510 PM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4089 7324 4091 7323 4094 7316 4097 7316
4098 7312 4096 7310 4097 7308 4097 7277
4093 7260 4092 7261 4091 7249 4085 7252
4084 7260 4080 7268 4084 7253 4082 7254
4074 7280
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 290DEG 25KT 4094 7309

$$

GOODMAN
[size="3"][/size]

Severe threat later today looks real. Watch that dying MCS in WPA for possible regeneration downstream in EPA later this afternoon into the evening hours. Once the T-storms are through tonight we'll see torrid conditions for Wed-Thurs, then moree MCS potential for this weekend in association w/ the next heat burst.

...UPR OH VLY INTO MID ATLANTIC ...
MOIST...WSWLY LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF GRT LKS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SFC HEATING...WILL DESTABILIZE THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY. COUPLED WITH
ASCENT PROVIDED BY TROUGH...EXPECT SCTD CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STORMS BY
MID AFTN ALONG LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS/WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN
OH/NRN KY INTO WV/MD AND VA. A BAND OF STORMS ALSO MAY FORM ALONG
WAA AXIS THROUGH CNTRL NY/PA. DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN FROM OH/KY INTO WV. A MORE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WILL EXIST OVER AND E OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM MD/NRN VA INTO
NY/PA...CLOSER TO UPR TROUGH. THERE...A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION
TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

ANZ335-338-345-355-CTZ005-009-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>078-080-230915-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-
HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
404 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WOULD OCCUR LATE
IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

This afternoon/evening is looking pretty good for you guys down there, regeneration off of the dying MCS or maybe some re-initiation even later this evening, as the best indicies look to pass after 00z.

Surface CAPE projected to be around 1200 with Lifted Indicies around -5. Showalters around -3, K-Index of 37. More impressively SWEAT indicies above 400 and total totals near 50. Bulk Richardson number projected near 20, and EHI above 1.5.

Now this is all based off of last nights NAM run, but these indicies would support a moderate outbreak of thunderstorms, possibly severe at times. A super cell or two may also be possible with the BRN and EHI's where they are, and Helicity values around 300. Main threat would likely be damaging winds as is usually the case with any MCS, but also 850-500 Lapse rates are above 6. And with any supercells the outside chance of a tornado.

Nothing too impressive out there right now, but we'll see what kind of heating you get down there.

I am more impressed with the POSSIBILITY of Thursday morning. Any threat on Wednesday seems to have disappeared.

Now there is not much dynamical support for Thursday's event, which obviously is a huge downside. However with some of the indicies where they are, it definitely bears watching.

CAPE is projected to be nearing 3000, with lifted Indicies as low as -9. Showalters are as low as -6 and a K-Index of 40. 437 on the SWEAT Index, and total totals of 53. Numbers like this can lead to major outbreaks.

Sometimes with this much instability, just enough shear, and moisture like that, any little dynamical support you can get can set something off (and there may be a prefrontal trough near the area). Time of this appears to be 12z-18z right now.

Thursday evening brings another chance of some storms with the frontal passage.

Nitt when you talk about 0z, 12z, etc is that actual time? I always wonder about that esp when i read forecast discussions. Should we adjust the time? So 0z is really 8 pm for us (minus 4 now but minus 5 during Non-DST). I know on the models that's how it is but was wondering about forecast discussions when they are not talking about models also.

Yup its Greenwich Mean Time (or Zulu, hence the z), so 12z is 8AM and 18z is 2PM.

Thanks. Meant to say Non-DST but you knew what i meant. I changed it.

HRRR supports rapid development behind the initial weakening batch of rain, but keeps most thunderstorms south of NYC.
Moves into the area ~4-5PM.

Best shear and instability lies from I-78 southward right now.

Millersville WRF starting to pick up on Thursday's possible event. However, keys in on southern New England instead, where there is more dynamical support, like most cases this year.


Unfortunately NCEP ran the hurricane models instead of the NMM.

I'm basically convinced that somewhere in the Northeast will have a big severe weather day on Thursday...

Mike, the WRF has a couple rounds of convection, some T-storms this evening and possibly a more organized MCS late tonight. I think we're still very much in the game for strong storms tonight.

We can certainly use the rain from a hvy shower or storm but this airmass seems pretty stable and dry right now.

First new thunderstorm development picking up now near State College.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast...99&smooth=0

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast...99&smooth=0

Storms firing along I-81 now. Main threat looks to be I-80 southward. Lifted Indicies near -5 now poking up into NJ, along with some CAPE now over 1000. 30-40 knots of shear in there too.

There's a very impressive storm near Hershey, PA with a real nice hail core visible on radar. Intense lightning with it too.

http://rrsignal.com/stormvue.html

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dix...111&loop=no

That storm looks real nasty. It's got a 46,000 ft cloudtop per the last aviation report but I wouldn't be surprised if it's 50-55K ft tall now.

http://aviationweather.gov/obs/radar/

Severe Thunderstorm Watch
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-021-025-029-033-230100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0384.100622T2100Z-100623T0100Z/

NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN
CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER
MERCER MONMOUTH OCEAN
SALEM
$$

That was just issued here for that line, though this area is in the northernmost part of it. We have more of an east wind component now and temp has fallen off to 82.3 here as a result so the dynamics may ease and weaken those storms a lot. DP here is 65.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
518 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL YORK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN LANCASTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 516 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE STORM
CONTAINING THE POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS NEAR SHENKS FERRY...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SMITHVILLE AROUND 525 PM...
QUARRYVILLE AROUND 535 PM...
WAKEFIELD AROUND 540 PM...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY.

THIS WILL IMPACT ROUTE 222.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER INSIDE NOW. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. PUT AS
MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE OUTSIDE AS YOU CAN. AVOID WINDOWS.
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

They are really getting hit hard today across south central PA. This cell has an impressive hail core with it as well.

On AW the radar of those storms shows the intensity barely one level below the maximum severe level limititation.

Here is link to live TV coverage from the Lancaster, PA area of these storms

http://www.wgal.com/video/23996063/index.html

Possible Tornado reported in Lebanon County, PA
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

Storms continue to develop in Eastern PA. Will see how far east they get...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
528 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E HERSHEY 40.28N 76.63W
06/22/2010 DAUPHIN PA EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0415 PM HAIL HERSHEY 40.28N 76.65W
06/22/2010 M1.00 INCH DAUPHIN PA TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL MEASURED WITH ACTUAL QUARTER IN HERSHEY
PARK.

0421 PM TORNADO CAMPBELLTOWN 40.28N 76.58W
06/22/2010 LEBANON PA EMERGENCY MNGR

POSSIBLE TORNADO IN CAMPBELLTOWN. WIDESPREAD TREES DOWN
WITH STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

0430 PM TORNADO MOUNT GRETNA 40.25N 76.47W
06/22/2010 LEBANON PA EMERGENCY MNGR

POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR MT. GRETNA. LARGE TREE DOWN ON
HOUSE. FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTED.

0434 PM HAIL ANNVILLE 40.33N 76.51W
06/22/2010 M1.00 INCH LEBANON PA TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE INCH HAIL MEASURED IN ANNVILLE

0508 PM HAIL EPHRATA 40.18N 76.18W
06/22/2010 M1.00 INCH LANCASTER PA TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN EPHRATA.

Torrential downpour right now, no thunder or lightning, but much much needed rain here.

18Z Nam has a lot of rain over northern NJ in the next 12-15 hours.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/na...amp24_NE024.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_ref_006l.gif

52K ft cloudtops now in NE Md.

Nice re-blossoming of cells as they approach central NJ western areas. I just want that hvy rain BM got. Couldn't care less about thunder and lightning.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/health/alle...?animation=true

Ice, only .30 out of that first cell, but rain has picked up again.

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NJ/DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384...

VALID 222259Z - 230000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384
CONTINUES.

THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CONTINUES FOR WW384.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF TWO VORTICITY MAXIMA OBSERVED
ON WV IMAGERY OVER UPSTATE NY AND NJ. INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK OVER
NY...WHILE GREATER INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER PA...NJ...AND DE. A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA...AND IS
PROGRESSING EWD INTO SERN NY/NJ AND NRN DE. CURRENT VAD WIND PROFILE
DATA INDICATES AMPLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND VEERING IN LOW LEVELS /175
M2S2 01-KM SRH PER DIX PROFILE/ THAT MAY SUPPORT BRIEF
ROTATION/ORGANIZATION IN ONGOING CONVECTION.

..HURLBUT.. 06/22/2010


ATTN...WFO...PHI...






EL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 500 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST
OF WILMINGTON DELAWARE TO 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ATLANTIC
CITY NEW JERSEY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 381...WW 382...WW 383...

DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER SERN PA IN AREA
OF FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND MDT INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS EWD TO COAST

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.


...HALES

The last cell in the line, which is very healthy looking, looks like our only hope here. The frontend of the line separated and crawled north and south of us as if it was trying to avoid a virus. It's very still and warm and humid here. 78.8 degrees. The brief maritime flow has died and there's no hint of it at all in the air.

I see that cell heading into Trenton and another into New Brunswick. Mod-heavy rain right now here.

Recorded 0.30" here so far; light rain currently.

About 10 drops of rain so far here. Interesting sky though as a last second storm formed about 2 or 3 miles north of me.

Parents report about a half inch in Newton.

Picked up 0.32 in T-storm.

Just ended here in Queens. Pouring rain for a good 40 minutes with a few intermittent breaks, temp has cooled a little but it is still very muggy.

This is a warmfront. Humidity is going the other way. No rain here. It looks like Monmouth is the only place that didn't get any rain.

Only .17" here

Here's a link to some pictures of the severe weather out in south central PA today. There are a lot of good funnel cloud / tornado pictures.

http://ulocal.wgal.com/service/searchEvery...p;d-7095067-p=1

Well for about 4 minutes it came down in wind driven sheets, total was only .13. Sure was hoping for more, maybe tomorrow.

Tomorrow has almost no chance and 95+ is on tap, Thursday too. Thursday could be the severe day. Regardless near or over 90 thru Sunday in Monmouth is likely. One last shower has sprung up in minutes with a hvy core near Matawan and is moving east. Missing me north by 4 miles. Frustrating.

.18 here, good to have some rain.

I just received some rain and a few rumbles of thunder. Nothing exciting.