Most models take it towards the Yucatan

The last thing I claim to be is a tropical expert. But I am seeing a lot of shear and dry air in the path of a system that is very poorly organized to begin with. I don't give it much chance atm.

GFDL has a Louisiana hit

0z Nam has a gulf hit.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_pcp_084l.gif


0z GFS has nothing lol

1000 mb's. That's a strong depression or weak TS.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 252159
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
83.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION
WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN
GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THERE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

WTNT41 KNHC 260847
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
500 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE REPORTED 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT ABOUT 90
NM EAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 35 KT.
THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED A
LARGE AREA OF WINDS NEAR 35 KT THAT DID NOT APPEAR TO BE RAIN-
CONTAMINATED. BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM ALEX WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX REMAINS
BROAD...AND THAT THE RECENTLY REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
MAY HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE AREA. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED SFMR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
WHICH APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
285/7. FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U. S. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW THIS EVOLUTION WILL AFFECT
ALEX. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE GFDL SHOW ENOUGH OF A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO STEER ALEX NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE RIDGE REMAINING
STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER ALEX GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. THE HWRF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE NUDGED
WESTWARD AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS MODELS. IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE NEAR OR UNDER A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS A RESULT...
ALEX IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS LONG AS IT REMAINS OVER WATER.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A 50 KT INTENSITY AS THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM
MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET DO THAT...BUT WILL CALL FOR
MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 16.9N 84.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 17.4N 86.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 18.4N 88.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 19.4N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 28/0600Z 20.5N 90.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 29/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 94.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 95.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

cmc


GFS


GFDL


HWRF

One iof the few places that can truly get a significant hurricane this early. Alex looks primed to intensify rapidly today.

Yep,would not be suprised to see a Cat 3 at landfall in 2- 3 days

12z Nam has a direct hit on Brownsville, Texas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_pcp_060l.gif

000
WTNT31 KNHC 281443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...ALEX SLOWLY INTENSIFYING...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 91.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WNW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF
BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA THROUGH
TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

HEAVY RAINS COULD REACH THE COASTAL AREAS OF TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN
VERACRUZ...AND SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

12z GGEM



Same place where the GFS has the storm.


12z Euro

NHC should be embarassed. At 7pm listed at 70 and TS, it has to be higher than that, so organized eye quickly forming. Compared to quite a few previous "hurricanes" Alex should certainly be named one.

think they are waiting to get reports back from recon.Once they have them they will have special statement

lol at 1am looks quite a bit worse, but guess what now its a cane. lol

WOW is that pressure low. 957.7 on the latest recon pass. RI underway

Looks to hit land in Mexico, well south of Brownsville Texas. Brownsville up to Corpus Christie will be getting nasty weather from Alex.

First June CAT 2 storm to hit land since Alma in 1966 Hit Isle of youth as a 2..if it does reach CAT 3,it will be the first june major landfall since Audrey of 1957..

For a hurricane that's not low at all. Alex looks a lot more impressive to me than it's CP actually is.