...NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
REMNANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AREAS WHICH RECEIVE GREATER HEATING
SHOULD DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION...AIDED BY
MODERATELY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WSWLYS. WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY TO BE
LIMITED IN GENERAL...ONLY MARGINAL HAIL IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS.
EXPECT MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...UNTIL
THE STRONGER STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

I'm already at about 83 after only dropping to 76 - one of my warmest overnight lows in years. It would feel good to have some heavy showers and storms later minus any severe damage.

SPC WRF



Nails NJ and NYC

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/

Well the Nam has been ruling the roost and it's not onboard until you go into southern NJ. It seems that the same areas that got hit the hardest on Thursday may have a repeat today, hopefully without that level of severity.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_p12_018l.gif

We certainly don't want a repeat of last Thursday, but a nice thunderstorm without any damage would be nice to cool us all off. Great Neck is still a mess.

we need the rain really bad

Yes we do. It's really dry out there. I haven't seen a good thunderstorm yet this season.

same here my water bill is going to be crazzy from justteying to keep the grass green . what a def a year make

Last year, June was really rainy and cool. This year is the complete opposite.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1154.html

I think the parameters look pretty good overall; my main concern at this point is the FROPA timing. The cloud debris are already overspreading much of NE and central PA, in fact NW NJ may start clouding up within the next couple hours. Most conducive zone for convective explosion actually looks to be near I-95, the DCA-NWI-PHL-NYC-BOS corridor, which is unusual for us as most of the time we see the storms intensify well west over CPA, prefrontal boundary, then wait several hours for the action to get here.

MUCAPE values are 3000 J/KG hugging the coastal plain of MD/DE/NJ in conjunction with 40kts of WLY effective shear and 8-8.5 low level lapse rates. That intersection of impressive thermodynamic and wind shear parameters should be the box of intense convection later this afternoon, namely VA, MD, DE, eastern PA, NJ, and up into coastal SNE.

So if the fly in the ointment doesn't show up as per usual for us i nthe Northeast, today has the potential to rock and roll. As I said the cloud mass is propagating ewd a bit more quickly than I'd like, but we've got sky-high surface instability already, so that shouldn't be too much of a concern.

storms popping just to my west

raining

Lee Goldberg on facebook said a Severe thunderstorm watch is likely to be posted within the hour for the metro area.

Nothing over here yet.

had 30 seconds of light rain, not enough to wet ground. But it is close, I can smell it. LOL

Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now issued for the NYC Metro area until 9 pm tonight.

Nice storm just popped west of Newton

All those broken patches of dryness with the line on your radar find there way to central NJ pretty routinely.

LOL its raining to my N,S,E,and west LOL wounder if that storm by Newton and H-town are going to merge

Looks like a nice cell is about to hit Bridgeport.

Just stepped outside the office here in Jersey City. Winds have really picked up. As has been the case all month, looks like the action passes just to our north (at least this first batch). Areas that got hit with Thursday's microburst could get hit again.

Current radar showing most of the thunderstorm activity moving north of the NYC area and LI. Bridgeport, Ct is under the gun once again as severe weather is headed their way now.

82. after beng 92 . about 2 hrs ago... whit no rain

Looks like Staten Island has a strong shield at the moment. Once again I have a storm passing to my north and one to my south and a nice big gap right over me.

Rained hard for a few seconds here, than stopped. Looks like it may split my area again, to the north and to the south. We could really use some rain though!

Rained hard for a few seconds here, than stopped. Looks like it may split my area again, to the north and to the south. We could really use some rain though!

Currently getting light rain, and radar looks like that may be all I get out of this for now. Southern Ocean County on south getting pounded.

Zippo so far. 96.3 degree high today.

Hit 95 for a high. Temp now down to 83.

Had a torrential downpour here - finally. No wind or lightning whatsoever though.

Picked up .33 within a 15-20 minute period. Some is better than none. Is this all we can expect the next 5 days?

Much like in the winter, pattern persistence is very important. Severe weather threats have generally been underforming this season, so chances are that will continue the rest of the summer. I really hope not, but as some guy once said, "It doesn't look good." I can count on my one hand the number of T-storm days this year, nevermind svr wx. One of those days was the early feb snowstorm. The past several summers we could count on many days of garden-variety storms, but we can't even pull that off. Strong high pressure, sinking pattern looks to be overtaking the Northeast. Amazing reversal from the record wet March to a potentially top 10 dry June.

The line in PA has a shot if it survives. That looks like our last rain hope for awhile. We'll probably be praying for a tropical cyclone hit and/or remnants to get some water in the ground across our area.

None even a drop of rain today. Horrible.

after 3 rounds of showers I ended with 0.05"

Had high of 93 here yesterday, had several rounds of heavy showers in the late afternoon-early evening hours, and that was it.

It rains all the time up here, literally all the time.

zilch! stuff is burnin up!

Another day of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and NOTHING. UGHHHHHHHHHHH