Still looking very impressive for the heat this weekend and really right on through next week.

Pretty good model consensus too, at least through the first half of this heat wave.
Around 90 on Saturday, followed by middle-upper 90's on Sunday, and then upper 90's on Monday, with the hottest day being Tuesday, where several, if not many locations could hit or break 100.

Now after Tuesday is where there is some conflicting scenarios. The GFS brings a weak boundary near the area, "cooling" you down to say near 90 for the rest of the week. However, the Euro keeps the boundary to the north, keeping you guys in solid mid 90's for the rest of the week. In fact it keeps the hottest day for you on Wednesday, which if it holds could push some locations up to 102-103 degrees.

Lab, what you have there is some extremely intense heat over the Ohio Valley, which if that verifies, could unimaginably break 110 degrees. Now the GFS is much more "reasonable" right now, keeping things in the upper 90's to near 100 down there.

Not looking forward to this at all. It's going to be really hot. Get ready to see your electric bill go through the roof.

Look at this ridge. Wow.

I'm going to be in the D.C. area this weekend, that will be uncomfortable, to say the least.

But is this going to be a stick-type of heat, or a dry heat?
The forecasts I've been seeing seem to show heat but no chances of thunderstorms, which leads me to believe it won't be as humid as the last heat outbreak..

Nittany - I know it's far out, but what do you see for fcsts for NEXT weekend (9th) for Lyndonville? I'm going up for the weekend...

Anyone remember the great Chicago heatwave of 1995? Daytime highs of 105-110 for a week, consistent daily heat indices near or just over 120 and several nightime lows of only 90. I remember it being 97 one night near midnght. Many people, especially elderly died in their apartments. When I saw those Euro 594's that I posted the other day I was thinking about that.

John,

Recent summers (and I mean last 15+ years have not had it) but I remember plenty of summers where a Bermuda HP dominated for months with only minor intrusions and we had very little T-storm activity. The heat was accomanied by tremendous humidity but you had to go way north (usually north of Albany) to find pressures low enough to allow T-shower development. Fronts that would come through never made it far south and never returned as warmfronts. They just dissipated and the heat and humidity was barely broken or surged right back in after a 24 hour break. The season that NYC had 39 days over 90 was like that and there were probably another 25+ days of 88-89 temps that season. I remember Bermuda HP's dominating well into September a lot more often in the past then in the current.

This will be more of a dry heat than the past heat wave. It is a pretty deep dry layer. Surface dewpoints will probably be in the 60's, and 850mb RH stay between 30 and 50%. Given what it could be this time of year it will be very hot but not overly humid (Would probably rather have 97/65 than 90/72 anyway).

In regards to next weekend in the NEK (is this for a certain someone's 21st? ), looking warm but the hottest air should be pressed southward with the boundary that moves through mid-week. Although by that time it could be trying to make a comeback around the ridge of high pressure.
Mid 80's look like a good forecast right now for Friday/Saturday along with a chance of some thunderstorms as there will likely be another boundary set up just to the north over Canada. The heat could try to move back in over the area on Sunday as we get another surge, so maybe could push 90 by Sunday.
Again pretty far out though.

As anticipated by many on here, GFS continues to back off its initial presentation of the cold frontal boundary sagging far enough south next week to break the heat wave for the NYC metro area. Actually pretty good consensus of it getting as far south as Albany by next Thursday, but then not going any further south through next Saturday.

Hottest days look to be Monday/Tuesday as they have the greatest 850mb temps and should be the driest, so it can maximize any heating by the sun.

Still looking at 90 on Saturday, middle-upper 90's on Sunday, upper 90s to near 100 on Monday and Tuesday, then if this latest trend is to be believed, solid mid 90's right on through Thursday, possibly "sinking" back to near 90 by the weekend.

Just looked at the 00Z Euro Ensemble Mean. 850 temps on Tuesday range from 20'C to 22'C in the NYC Metro Area. Someone is going to get to 100 degrees. This kind of heat continues into midweek.

Made a post on the potential heat next week. I think Newark may record a century mark heat wave, with 3 consecutive days of 100F highs.

http://nymetrowx.blogspot.com/

Just found another blizzard of 96 pix. Maybe this will chill us. Despite everything I saw here this winter, nothing I saw compares to this for CNJ. Look at the depth of this snow - and this was 30 hours after compaction. It must have taken me 5 hours just to get this far and 2 days to get to the curb. Once there I had 7' of snow from the plows which took me into day 3. If you look close you can see the scoured lines in the snow as it was more than 2X the depth of my Ariens snow blower so I had to knock it down with a shovel and than blow it out. You can also see the hilly terrain in this part of Colts Neck as the slope of the land shows clearly behind the swingset. That drops off from top to bottom about 55 feet to a small tributary of Big Brook river. The swingset is long gone now that the pool occupies that space.

Maybe not just not Newark. Products that I'm looking at this morning are even hotter...

90 on Saturday, mid-upper 90's on Sunday, upper 90's to near 100 on Monday, around 100 Tuesday and Wednesday, and then mid-upper 90's Thursday and Friday. Finally a cooldown to the 80's for Saturday...

Threaded Climate Extremes for New York-LGA Area, NY
Period of record: 1947 - 2009

7/3 107 in 1966 98 in 1949 97 in 2002+
7/4 100 in 1949 99 in 1966 98 in 2002
7/5 100 in 1999 99 in 1955 94 in 2003+
7/6 101 in 1999 98 in 1986 97 in 1994
7/7 97 in 1994 97 in 1993 97 in 1986


Threaded Climate Extremes for New York-Central Park Area, NY
Period of record: 1871 - 2009

7/3 103 in 1966 100 in 1911 100 in 1898
7/4 102 in 1949 99 in 1919 98 in 1966
7/5 101 in 1999 98 in 1955 98 in 1919
7/6 101 in 1999 98 in 1986 98 in 1911
7/7 98 in 1993 98 in 1986 97 in 1994+

well, it was 47.0 this morning. what a great day again. I wish summer was like this the whole time.

BTW- the dam gfs still has rain for most of the 7-14 day time frame

0z Euro bakes us right through Friday. Yuck.

I can't believe how hot the Euro is. Holy ****.

Ice, I hope we can repeat this storm in our lifetimes. It was about 6-10" greater than our 2nd/3rd biggest storms, and the arctic air following it allowed the impact to be severe.

Agree Mike, I think many spots will hit 100.

Euro has taken the heat up higher - 850's now at 20-24 for much of next week and 24+ for a few of those as it centers the core of the hot air mass right over us with strong high pressure. Some areas will get to 103-105 if it's right. Keep in mind this is the 0Z Euro so these are 8PM 850's.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grb...0&cu=latest

Ditto here.......

Yeah I noticed that and actually had a brief discussion with one of the lead forecasters on duty right now here in Burlington. He said that it would even put parts of southern Vermont up to 100 degrees. However, he said he has noticed that, at least for up here, the Euro has had a slight warm bias so far this year. Not sure of how its exact performance has been down there.

Highest 850mb temp I saw on the Euro for next week was 26 degrees. That would give someone a 105-106 degree reading.

Quite accurate.

I have Euro surface data, and I wish I could upload them for you because they are simply incredible. It puts the western half of NJ at 100 by 2PM on Monday. 105 by 2PM on Tuesday, and 107 by 2PM on Wednesday.

The 00Z Euro and its Ensemble Mean have backed away from the idea of a retrograding H5 Low that retrogrades close enough to the coast to temper the heat. The 12Z OP run of yesterday showed more of an onshore flow component at the coast, tempering the highest readings, but leading to higher humidity levels. That H5 low doesn't seem to be handling well by all the models.

The 00Z Euro Ensemble Mean brings in 850 temps between 18'C and 20'C on Monday, and readings as high as 22'C Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and slightly lower next Friday. Even shows a swath of 24'C readings those days.

Con Ed is going to throw a party next week..that's for sure.

Looks like the 12z Euro backed off from the really insane heat. It also introduces some rain for Wednesday.

I think you can forget that storm retrograding back west into HP that strong. The Euro has flirted with that but then backs off. The ensembles may end up showing it but I doubt the deeper data runs will show that as we get closer to this heat event. If that retrograde happens it'll likely be a lot more north of this area, where the surface HP is weaker IMO. Nam at 84 hours shows an anchored strong HP and the offshore storm well north.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_500_084l.gif

We could use the rain, my sprinkler system has been working overtime.

Not going to get it with this Omega block in place. Stagnant hot air and no T-storm chance at all. Moisture flow is way north of us into canada andI I don't see anway that ocean ULL retrogrades west. If the Euro drops the idea and goes the way of the Nam the midweek 594's and potential 104-105 temps will come back.

Glad I got the week off. Thinking of buying a generator in case the power goes out do to high demand. Im sure Obama will frown that I am buying one that runs on gas instead of pinwheels and pixie dust.

low this morning was 49.1 three mornings in a row that I hit the 40's but today you can feel the heat of the sun already compaired to the last few mornings

Intense heat is back on the 0Z Euro. Let's hope it breaks to near 90 or low 90's by late week. But if it does, it will be tempoary as the pattern will be ripe for more intense heat after that. This is going to be an unusually hot July.

Low of 47 yesterday, 3 degrees off the record, low of 54 this morning, can definitely feel the heat building today.

We can thank a ULL for this cooldown as it caused cooler HP to come a lot further south than normal. But that's working offshore now and the HP is getting baked. Downsloping NW winds can make it hotter than forecasts expect today as the heating will continue till 5-6PM in these conditions. Already 83.1 here.

12Z Nam has extreme heat Tuesday/Wednesday and shows a developing 594 thicknesss expanding in SE Pa and SW NJ. This will probably expand thru our whole area and some places can reach 105 on Wednesday, and 102 or so on Tuesday.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_500_084l.gif

Well, my forecast highs for next week went lower now. I would not be surprise if it goes even lower. We will see what happens regarding this heatwave. If NYC hits 110, I am jumping in the Hudson River for a swim.

0z Euro ensemble mean is really hot. It's going to get nasty this week.

12z Nam has 100's for NYC by Wednesday.

I see a lot of places have already hit 90 in Jersey. http://climate.rutgers.edu/njwxnet/mapview...ature&t=cur

It's 85 here atm.

Been in the low 50s the past three nights, but a huge diurnal range today. Started off at 54.2, up to 89.1 now. Let's see if we can begin the heat wave today.

Still on track for mid/upper 90s with scattered low 100s Mon-Wed of this week. Absolutely perfect pool/beach day today.

That's brcause your forecast is 18 hours behind the data we are talking about and beside that it was based on a useless GFS run. Forecasts are ancient, as they are based on old model data (usually 12-18 hours outdated) that then generate computer forecasts vs the real-time data we discuss here.

18Z Nam has large 594DM right over us. Easily over 100 in many areas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_500_078l.gif

Heat wave has officially begun here. 89.8 degree high.

Same here 90 degree high.

Hit 90.7 here. When I was in Bergen county on the GSP earlier my car registerred 96. further north iin Valhalla it was 91-92.

0z Nam is still toasty for the start of next week. NYC gets to 100 on Tuesday.

Only got to 85 degrees here today.

The NAM is still very hot into early next week, and the 12Z Euro Ensemble Mean is warmer than the OP Thursday and Friday.

81 right now.

After a low of 54, had a high of 88 yesterday.

88 right now.

91 here @ 10:45am!!!!