The GFS has alot of rain after the heat.


The Euro also had the same thing.

And they both have a lot of heat after the heat too. GFS is mid 90's for most of its 384 hours. That in and of itself is a terrible sign as this is a cold bias model. And when it's not mid 90's it's near or just over 90. So that rain you see is not a solid curtain of rain - it's broken areas of showers and most likely most of them will be in hillier terrain to the NW. I never buy into progression of cold fronts south in summer in general and in patterns like this moreso than ever do I not buy into them. Dollars to donuts most of those showery periods are north of NYC and all the models are painting is instabilty tropical T-showers that are pop-up in nature for the rest of us. Where they are slow moving they will be drenching though. But we've seen it before, 4-5" of rain in one spot and nothing 10-15 miles away from that spot. Also at some point there will be sea breeze induced storms. Make no mistake this is going to be a tropical month with 576DM thickness (588DM on the Euro and 500 plots) through us most of the next 10-15 days. You d'ont get rainy days in heat like that. You get scattered storms, some strong that are slow moving but they will develop in 90-95 degree heat with a ton of humidity ala Florida. And again most likely the models will be 100+ miles too south with the important trigger of greater widesread T-storms, especially this far out. The GFS is also pretty useless in this pattern so if you are banking on it good luck.

Note how close that Bermuda HP is to us on this link and how little you need to tinker with the models to forget anything but spotty T-storms. The HP on this link is the same one that will be over us this week. The GFS eventually retrogrades it back west after it gradually moves east next weekend. i doubt it ever gets as east as the GFS makes it go (this is where knowing the GFS is an important factor) which is why I really have little faith in a front triggering a lot of rainy T-storms here. If the HP backs up so does the front (actually it dissipates) and if the HP never gets too far east the front never gets close enough in the first place.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_500_264l.gif

I personally like the heat but am hoping for a wetter pattern. It's gotten extremely dry - I've noticed several ponds and lakes at lower levels, and when I'm able to drive a golf ball 240 yards, well, it's a sign that we need some rain.

Hi Ice--

My wife and I are thinking about taking the kids tent camping during the week of July 12th (Promised Land State Park in the Poconos). Given the heat and chance of periods of rain, would you recommend doing this another week?

Thanks!

I d'ont see any rainy weeks. The huimidity will increase and with it the T-storm chances in the late day and evening. Lightning in heat like this is often dangerous CTG and this pattern will produce intense heat at times and unbearable heat and humidity in others. I've never been a camper but have often wondered how those who did so composed themselves with a lot of CTG lightning under any of those cells. If you can tolerate that tye of heat and T-storm chances you're a lot braver man than me.

Thanks!

Forecast for Greentown, PA looks to be about 10 degrees cooler than here in Central Jersey... As for T-storms and CTG Lightening - we'll take cover in the car, I won't take any chances having my wife and kids with me...