Slowly drifting thunderstorms are dumping a lot of rain in parts of NJ. Spots in southern Morris County have already received over 2" of rain this evening according to radar composites.

Didn't snowamps area get inundated with a stalled out storm last night?

Warm sultry but cloud free here. 6ths straight night I was in the pool.

One bad sign for tomorrow is that all of the frontal lightning is gone.

http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/severe...m=36hr_svrWatch

Seriously Robbbs, I've got to think with a triggering front, high DP airmass and a tropical ULL there have to be some bonanza rain chances that models can't pick up at some point in the next 24 hours. Until that point any lumbering shower or T-storm area from the trop fetch off the gulfstream can also cause localized flooding rains. We'll see.

Yep; parts of western and northwestern NJ getting drenched. They're just missing me to the west as they drift from south to north. I expect they'll slowly shift east in time. For now, it's feast or famine for our region with the rain.

0Z Nam isn't much. Loves central Pa. GFS is similar. This is really all frontal and not picking up the small but intesnse deluges that have formed this evening in western NJ.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_p48_048l.gif

whats up with the winds after this?havent been up on this storm but sunday i have a plan to go on a boat and dont need it to be blowing...

This system is producing some good rains here this morning. I was awakened to some loud claps of thunder and it is pouring here right now. I have already had 0.83" today and have experienced downpours with 2" rates this morning.

Pouring out here, and it looks like some good rains are making there way in from the west.

Getting a tropical downpour right now, with thunder.

Same here. Rains had been inching this way since last night and have finally arrived. Pouring rain now with thunder.

Still pouring here. Looks like most of the lightning activity has moved east into NJ. We have had 1.62" of rain so far today and it is continuing to come down.

http://www.strikestarus.com/index.aspx?id=40

Absolutely amazing rain right now. We must have 2 inches in less than 1/2 hour. This is actually potentially dangerous. Just starting getting some T & L too.

Satellite -- Radar composite shows your area and/or nearby with some 4"+ totals!

Rec'd 1.30" in about 20 minutes, much needed.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
832 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

NJC019-027-035-037-101630-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0027.100710T1232Z-100710T1630Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX NJ-MORRIS NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-SOMERSET NJ-
832 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MORRISTOWN...
SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOMERVILLE...
HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
SOUTHEASTERN SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

* AT 830 AM EDT...HEAVY RAIN WAS CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. MANY LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL RECEIVE
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP AROUND THREE INCHES POSSIBLE. THE HEAVY
RAIN WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND ALONG SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS.

Lightened up but we still have thunder. Would not be surprised if we got 3 inches but haven't gone out to look closely at the rain gauge yet.

that line is sure a slow mover

No question. It was in West Jersey about two or three hours ago and is only now getting within 20-30 miles of the NYC area.

Radar composites now estimating some 5"+ totals in some spots of western NJ.

Nam has obviously busted badly. Big precip totals already over parts of NJ and radar shows the entire band of heavy rain much further east than modeled on the nam. Judging by radar, there is much more rain to come over much of our area that has already received significant rain totals.

Line is moving so slow.

http://www.accuweather.com/us/radar/sir/pa...r.asp?play=true

Not a drop of rain here yet. But the sky here has rain swollen darkening clouds, and the moisture laden small dark clouds that run ahead of massive rain events are further east amd SE in the bright portion of the sky. Have actually had some sun and it is Maimi like oppressive out there and 81 degrees. No winds whatsoever. If the front were 3-4 hours later 90 would be a given.

look likes its braking up west of the city

Weakening too, especially at the northern end. The Nam is off in places as the line is more east but the nam always had that line weakening as it came east. It's possible that the Nam has the placement off by 100-200 miles but has the synoptic right. Scary is that the 0Z NMM and ARW were also light in precip in central and southern NJ. The NMM gets us good in Monmouth but has a donut whole in much of NJ just south of Monmouth. As much as all that rain is sitting there, the fact that the hi-res models show a lot of weakening of it as it finally gets east is not comforting at all.

Ruc also heavily favors western areas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...01_l_loop.shtml

Looks like one of those frustrating summers where we're begging for a T-storm here in Monmouth. I've still had zero rain since June 9th now.

Same here.

Philly is getting it good.

It's amazing that with all that rain west of us I have no faith in getting .25" right now and getting less than that wouldn't surprise me in the least. Most of the lightning has broken up and highest cloudtop is 31K feet. More impressive cloudtops are now south of NJ.

Ice, that batch of convection is falling apart pretty quickly. We'll probably see it die and then regenerate east of us. Drought begets drought, and I guess our time isn't up just yet to break the back of this dry period.

I'm actually getting more interested in the nam's sim radar at 84 hours!

Storm, have you noticed the transformation in the clouds overhead. 45 mins ago they were rainswollen and looked like long lasting trop downpours were imminent. Now they look like a light-mod rain event at best.

Rains ended, actually saw some blue sky/sun, now teeming rain again. Very tropical.

Cloudburst just passed with 0.30" of rain in a little over 5 minutes; as quckly as it came, now gone and sun trying to break through.

This is really depressing. We can't even good a good rainstorm over here.

Not a drop over here. Was looking for some nice rain for my lawn instead of the sprinkler. Oh well.....

Unreal- the rain got right up to our doorstep here in NE Jersey, then sputtered out. The summertime version of the dryslot, lol.

Just woke up and by looking at the radar, looks like we been getting hammered all morning here in warren county. Wunderground estimates of 3 inches plus here.

Raining again here although radar doesn't show it. Seems like cells are developing right overhead. Florida-like weather.

looks like the rain has ended. .72 today with .90 for a 2 day total.

Seeing the rain completely disappear from northern areas out of nowhere is incredible to look at. That line looked mighty impressive also.

Nam didn't bust here Robbbs. Not even enough rain to make a puddle. Now clouds are thinning, sky is very bright and sun starting to come thru at times.

System was not a bust here. Total rainfall for today is 2.25" Looks like it is done for now.

nothing here in hoboken, not a drop!

This airmass is very tropical and there are plenty of triggers around to squeeze it so let's not give up yet. The main band from this morning is gone and lifeless to eastern NJ but a heavy shower has rapidly formed south of Newark and a larger area of heavy cells is almost motionless over the north shore of LI in its wake.

Agree Ice. I doubt we get anything but a glimmer of hope still remains for a pop up slow moving T-storm this afternoon.

Wow. What a downer, at least so far.

It looked so promising this morning. All we got here were some sprinkles.

Regardless of which areas in our region received rain and which didn't, there's no question that the nam busted in a huge way with its precip forecast. It had consitently shown the axis of heaviest precip totals to set up over central PA, and very little to no precip to the east. In fact, central PA saw practically no rain in the nam's forecast time frame and many places over western and northern NJ were drenched. It also missed the heavy precip amounts, which totaled 3"+ in many areas, with a few lollipops in excess of 5".

Reports of 5"+ rain totals now being rerported in central Nassau County NY. Flood warnings issued in and around that area. Some amazing rain totals are surfacing. Seems like western and nortwestern NJ were drenched, then a real drop-off in precip over northeastern NJ and NY metro, and then a dramtic increase again over parts of Long Island.

Heavy rains here for a little while now.

Had a decent spell of rain this morning. Nothing spectacular but it's much needed. Hopefully a thunderstorm can fire up. I'm surprised about the temp. It reached 82 for a high this morning and is now at 78. Was down to 75 earlier.