...ERN PA/NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SW ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT
EWD OVER NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...AROUND THE SERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CLOSED LOW NEAR JAMES BAY. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROGRESS
EWD/SEWD ACROSS WRN PA/NY THIS MORNING...REACHING ERN PA/NY AND NRN
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING
DESTABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN A NARROW MOIST CORRIDOR IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
SBCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG...WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MODEST
WITH ROUGHLY 30+ KT FLOW EXTENDING DOWN TO 2-3 KM AGL AS FAR S AS
ERN NY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH MULTICELL STORMS IN A BAND
ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.