Full Version: Tropical Storm BonniE
and look what just came off of the African Coast!!!
CMC South Florida then LA hit
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?...;hour=Animation
GFS weaker S,Fla,then AL/LA
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...;hour=Animation
SREF
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?...;hour=Animation
GFS weaker S,Fla,then AL/LA
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...;hour=Animation
SREF
That system is the only thing keeping oil and gas from plumetting this morning as today's energy report was absolutely horrendous.
QUOTE (icehater @ Jul 21 2010, 10:49 AM) 
That system is the only thing keeping oil and gas from plumetting this morning as today's energy report was absolutely horrendous.
I guess the traders dont see the dry air getting pulled into it. lol
My Bonnie forms in the Bahamas
Where people all lie in the sun
If not for the shear and some dry air
It could be category one.
Where people all lie in the sun
If not for the shear and some dry air
It could be category one.
QUOTE (lab94 @ Jul 21 2010, 10:59 AM)
I guess the traders dont see the dry air getting pulled into it. lol
If they saw the Euro they'd have a heart attack. It has a HP in the GOM just when they were hoping for a hurricane. Seriously distillates up 3.1mln barrels, gas up 1.1mln barrels while crude is a 2mln departure (up some 500K barrels vs an expected 1.5mln decline) from what they were hoping. In mid summer it doesn't get worse than that.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221224
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
825 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
ABNT20 KNHC 221224
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
825 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Bonnie, going to skip over Southern FL into the Gulf, current NHC track snows her going straight for New Orleans
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
...BONNIE NEARING SOUTH FLORIDA...HEAVY SQUALLS APPROACHING...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 79.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF MARATHON FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BONNIE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST. BONNIE IS
MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A SMALL AREA NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE BONNIE MOVES OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER..
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE KEYS IN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
FLORIDA LATER TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
...BONNIE NEARING SOUTH FLORIDA...HEAVY SQUALLS APPROACHING...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 79.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF MARATHON FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BONNIE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST. BONNIE IS
MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A SMALL AREA NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE BONNIE MOVES OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER..
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE KEYS IN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
FLORIDA LATER TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
Bonnie may be the most awful looking tropical system I ever saw. Last night on the TWC radar images it looked like a small area of 2-3 dying T-storms. If I didn't know any better I'd think the area near Mexico was Bonnie.
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/julynonac...e_animated.html
Radar:
http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interac...;animation=true
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/julynonac...e_animated.html
Radar:
http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interac...;animation=true
Rest in peace
QUOTE (Jimrin1967 @ Jul 24 2010, 01:47 PM)
Rest in peace
Fred disappeared on us. I guess this storm w'ont make his website. I doubt anyone at the landfall site noticed there was a storm in the first place.
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