I hope for once GFS kick NAMs behind this winter...

[img width=600 height=480]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p06_012l.gif[/img][img width=600 height=480]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p06_018l.gif[/img]
[img width=600 height=480]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p06_024l.gif[/img]
[img width=600 height=480]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p06_030l.gif[/img]

24hrs and 30hrs..

Hey blizzard,

Just wondering what NAM and GFS is?

[img width=600 height=480]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p48_048l.gif[/img]   

Wow :o

[img width=600 height=480]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p48_048l.gif[/img]
:o

unbelievable QPF...

They are both computer models that use incredible amts of info to predict where future storms will be headed.
The GFS is a global model and is used in longer/medium range and the NAM is a close-range model. The 00Z run of the GFS is coming out now, looks like a coastal hugger with 540 line way inland. Of course things can change but it's not looking good for NYC.

Thats going to make the VD sleet storm  look like a dusting!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! about 3" of pricip with temps in the mid- upper20's and  @543 mb thickness

Inland areas get pounded

Look @ that orange shade along coastal NJ, that's 4" QPF. Sick.

The 540 line never really makes it in ti NJ, so I guess its all sleet unless some unexpected cooling

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_slp_024l.gif

weathergeek87

Thanks for your help man.  Although my gf thinks that i am crazy for going on a weather blog, I am a huge fan.  You guys truly know your isht.

D

Any idea how Bergen cnty looks?  weather.com is showing 5-9, but i am always a sceptic when it comes to their predictions.

morristown and sussex all snow through 24 hours, sussex actually stays all snow until 30

GFS has the 850 low as a coast hugger. This would not be good news for the coast and a close shave inland. Precip amounts and intensity are huge and may make for some wild dynamic cooling changes in precip type. I'd have to go with the conventional thinking if forced to make a forecast and go with a general 3" to 5" snowfall for NY Metro, 4" to 7" just to the north and west, 7"+ further north and west, Poconos get 12" to 18", central NJ real battleground but 2" to 6" (from east to west), LI 2" to 5" (from east to west). All subject to change. Very low confidence forecast.

lab you dont always need it to be below 540 for snow.

RG -- your our soundings guy, hows LGA looking throughout?

robbs, i dont blame you for being carefull this year...

Weathergeek, but you're our pharmacy guy. We need sedatives more than soundings.

Damit!! I thought I finaly learned something!LOL So all of this will be snow? 1.5 - 2"
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_p24_024l.gif

snow through 18 than sleet at 24(or sometime between 18-24)

Another 50 miles further east would sure increase confidence. I'd take 1.5" precip instead of 3" if it's all snow. Nice trade-off. LOL.

;D

Chunderboy we are all sick in the head when it comes to secondary lows! LOL
It all depends on what part of Bergen you are in, there is going to be major swings in totals if you compare Ramsey to the GWB!
6-10" for Ramsey, lower towards Fort Lee but still a decent hit for March & a winter that was truly disappointing.

all snow here as of now 35.6 degrees with a coasting already had a heavy echo over me

Rgwp96, you may be right about the sleet composiition of this storm. I still hope for the dynamics to overcome mid level warming. Either way, this should be a heck of a storm precip-wise. I may finish this winter getting more sleet than snow.

I can surely fill your RX's but I will need a valid Perscription! Don't make me get all legal on your asses now. LOL

I always have my bar to fall back on.

The one in your house or the one in town ;)

The one in the house is closer.

Rg, if you still up, how about couple of sounding for central, north and east NJ. And snowfall map would be nice too... ;D

Funny, the models started trending in the wrong direction for us as soon as Larry Cosgrove had my area in the snow bull's eye. It never fails. I'm hoping he changes his forecast to all rain in the morning. That way I'll be sure to get heavy snow.

wut r the soundings in brooklyn for the storm and wut would u expect me to get or is it not determined yet

TWC...snowfall totals...its reminds me when paul kocin was working there...Actually, i am kind of shock that they are going with high numbers.

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/severewin...m=wxcenter_maps

only sounding available at the momenet are skew ts which are a pain to post, but I mentioned sussex and morriston and lga earlier.  for coastal areas(belmar) not much snow quickly to sleet

thanks,

Wow, I think 95% of us would be happy if that map verified. Problem is they probably prepared it before the 00z runs could be reviewed.

nam snowmap

http://grib2.wxcaster.com/wxcaster4/CONUS1...UCHERA_72HR.gif

Damn this map only shows me getting 1 inch or less in bk

Where was the warning label- read a your own risk.LOL thanks again for the maps