JB's 4:00 am update now says he believes the zone of excessive snows will be further south than he thought earlier -- on a line along and 50 miles to the west from West Point NY to Lancaster PA will see 18"+ of snowfall. Also said the big I-95 cities are still in the battle ground for a bigger storm and not out of danger. Said the storm may go from a major category to one that will be talked about for years.

well robbs, bodes well for you guys..i'm actually sleet here right now, and according to mount holly not supposed to change over til the afternoon. this one could surprise a lot of people

Monmouthcounty, I agree. I'm actually surprised that my temp has dropped to 25 with light snow falling. It'll be a nowcast later as the low is no where near us yet and track and intensity will mean everything in determining final outcome. However, from reading a couple of sources this morning, it seems like the storm's impact is now expected to be greater.

Did you see the latest from UPTON? Apparently the storm has stalled. Any thoughts?

Lis, I saw no mention of a stall in their discussion. Can you elaborate on what you mean?

Give me a sec and I'll copy it.

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
437 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SLEET POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HAS BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY. WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH...THE
PRECIPITATION IS CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH SLEET THIS AFTERNOON
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME QUITE HEAVY. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST EXPERIENCING PREDOMINATELY SLEET...RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN...AND INLAND AREAS MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET.

UP TO A FOOT COULD ACCUMULATE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK
CITY...WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES IN AND AROUND NEW YORK CITY...AND
SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
WHICH WILL AFFECT THE SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS.

CTZ009-NJZ003>006-011-NYZ071>078-161700-
/O.EXT.KOKX.WS.W.0002.070316T1200Z-070317T1200Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
437 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY.

LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...SO DRIVING
COULD BE QUITE DIFFICULT. A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES
BEFORE THE ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS LATER TONIGHT. NASSAU AND
NORTHWEST SUFFOLK COUNTIES COULD SEE SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB
SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES.

Stationary means stalled right?

i believe the front is stationary they are talking about.  This is becoming a nowcast now, and not to look at the computers anymore, the cold air is coming in strong.  I am just cloudy up here in poughkeepsie, i think JB is making a pretty cool call and i think we will all be surprised on heavier accumulations with this storm, heck west point new york is much further south than me, i cant fathom getting over 15 inches but if it happens then let it be, only thing here is i am north not northwest on the projected path of the storm so i may get more mixing issues even north, robbbs do you see myself sharing in on this higher amount up here in po town?

Yeah thats the front they are talking about

The precip band set up just southeast of me by 10-15 miles and I've been dry all night

awesome, just went over to snow and sleet now..

Vic, I think you're good for 18"+ if the storm behaves as the models currently show. The issue with the stationary front is it may prevent the cold air from being scoured out of here quickly. Remember, one of the issues yesterday was that there is no blocking high to keep feeding the cold air. With the front stalling this may slow the cold air departure. On the other hand, that won't help with upper air warming if the track is too close to the coast. It would only make for a longer duration sleet storm. The coastal track is still everything in this ballgame and phasing situations are always tricky. A shift of 50 miles in one direction or the other would have huge implications in snowfall amounts.