Just got back late last night and see all the news about a storm...
The mets this morning seem to be lowering totals... Chris C. channel 4 stated city probably no more than three inches..
The issue seems to be the track of the storm, they are calling this a coastal hugger...
Craig Allen 2-5 inches in NYC...
Is this the general consensus on the board?
Good to be back...
It was near 80 in NC for two days

Summer, you could have stayed here for the warmth -- it was 75 to 80 in NJ two days ago. LOL.

and all the golf courses were open - if we get a huge storm we may look at them being closed for almost a week with temps staying below normal through mid-week (next week)...
Still uncertain in my own mind if this one will be a big storm...

Robbs, do you see this one being a coastal hugger?

Summer, as per JB, 18"+ in the higher terrain of NJ & PA!!

Everything still rides on the track. If it's too close to the coast, you can't fight back the upper level warming. If it's marginal, dynamic cooling could crash through the column and keep it snow. However, a further east track would certainly be the way to go for snow. For now, this may still turn into a sleet storm for many. I haven't looked at the the 06z runs yet.

Here's an update -- the new coastal is a little further southeast than where the models had it forecasted (over eastern Georgia now). If the track follows that slightly further east path, this could turn out to be very interesting, particularly for central/northern NJ.

robbs, i guess GFS might win this afterall. And we only needed low to move 50 miles east to get good snow out of this.

Robbs, here are the soundings for sussex for the 6z gfs. Already off with the temp by 8-10 degrees. (its colder here now). Shows about 2 3/4 inches of pricip falling with temps between 32 going  (its already  @24.9 ) down to 19. 850's are good -2 to -11 but the 500-1000 thk  goes between 542 - 540

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.s...amp;submit.y=10

I'm actually encouraged by the fact that snow has been reluctant to break out in Sussex County versus points to its southeast. Over the years I've noticed that that's a tell tale sign that the coastal is further east than anticipated. I've observed this many times when snows break out in more earnest in NYC versus my location in West Milford.