NYC Metro Weather Forums > Model precip amounts

icehater

Mar 16 2007, 07:45 AM

Models have cut back precips somewhat from last night but are pretty much still saying 2-3QPF. I always scale big amounts like that down by 20-30% as models more often than not overdo large precip. The Valentine's day storm was way overstated by models (and in fact had similar amounts as this one on the model output beforehand) and this storm has a similar track so it may well be way overdone too. Most forecsats seem to be assuming way less than model QPF. Anyone else noticing this or have thoughts on it

Virgaman

Mar 16 2007, 07:50 AM

QUOTE

Models have cut back precips somewhat from last night but are pretty much still saying 2-3QPF. I always scale big amounts like that down by 20-30% as models more often than not overdo large precip. The Valentine's day storm was way overstated by models (and in fact had similar amounts as this one on the model output beforehand) and this storm has a similar track so it may well be way overdone too. Most forecsats seem to be assuming way less than model QPF. Anyone else noticing this or have thoughts on it

TOTALLY agree ice there is no way on those amounts my guess up here would be 1 to 1 1/2 inches of qpf.

lab94

Mar 16 2007, 07:57 AM

I would say 2". I think (and I don't know sh!t about this compaired to you guys) the storm can hold some more pricip because its not as cold as the VD storm (6 deg. and sleet). Just my thought. That and $2.44 gets you a gallon of gas. LOL

icehater

Mar 16 2007, 08:04 AM

VDay storm was about half of model output.

Virgaman

Mar 16 2007, 08:08 AM

QUOTE

I would say 2". I think (and I don't know sh!t about this compaired to you guys) the storm can hold some more pricip because its not as cold as the VD storm (6 deg. and sleet). Just my thought. That and $2.44 gets you a gallon of gas. LOL

LMAO :D :D :D :D