Updated at 8:00 am. Revised his snow forecast for NYC -- believes NYC will see 8" of snow instead of his previous forecast of 4". All points north and west of route 287 will get a foot or more.

Did he happen to say if more frozen precip would now fall further south then first anticipated?
Thanks...

robbs,do u think this could be true and when does it supposed to get bad?

robbbs this is so awesome, yes i have yet to see a flake lol, but temps holding at 26.6 degrees with a biting wind, my gosh i can smell the snow in the air.  i guess he figures the precip will come in faster at a heavier clip and changeover will come slower?

I can only hope i see over a foot, many forcasters up here in poughkeepsie are only saying 5 to 10 though

I can only presume that JB is buying the GFS solution. The 06z NAM is a disaster with a coast hugger and much upper level warrming. The 06z GFS is much colder. There are some signs that the low is slightly further east than where the models had it pegged.It all boils down to the track. Nowcast time.

Hey Robbbs, what are you feeling at your location W.Milford...

Robbbs - that GFS/Nam difference is hard to understand. The cold air has pressed a lot further south and east then was progged by models yesterday. Newark at 28, cetral NJ under 31, you at 23 etc were not forecasted anything like that on the 18Z or 0Z runs. That would lead me to believe the GFS track yet the Nam should have a much better resolution on those colder temps. I'd be a lot happier if the GFS was hugging the coast and the Nam was the more eastern model. The reason why I fear the Nam is we had all snow at 34 and now have snow pellets, sleet and freezing rain at 31. So some warmer air has come back in aloft. Admittedly though precip is far lighter than before so we may also be missing out on column cooling dynamics of heavier precip.

One way or another you won't get out of the 20's so if the Nam is right you are headed for valentine's day 2 or an ice storm.

Light to moderate snow; temp is 22.4.

Ice, this one can take a number of turns yet and while some have compared it to 4/1/97 for my area, the huge difference is that in '97 the track was east of LI while this one crosses LI about 50 miles further west. The track will be everything and all bets are off for everyone. I know my limitations -- this one is too difficult to forecast with any degree of reasonable confidence.

sorry folks....don't want to be a negative here but, this storm is not going to be close to the benchmark of 40-70....
no matter how you slice it, upper air column will warm....it's sleet for most....to rain east....higher elevation will not stay all snow either....

per my statement above....

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack.gif

That's not a coast hugging track and is actually a very good track for snow - especially just inland and west of I-95. Pus the actual storm seems to be east of that track right now in SC.

I echo that. That's a dream track for me and if it verified, I'd be looking at a white out.

UP HERE to in poughkeepsie robbbs even though i am more east and north?

Blizzardboy - don't know your knowkedge of weather but it's a myth that only benchmark storms are classiuc snowstorms for our area. We don't care where the storm is when it gets to New England. We only care where it is when it's off our shore. Many storms have moved due north or NNE from our area and changed Boston over to rain while we got heavy snow.  The December 2000 storm brought 14-18" of snow to NY, 50-55 degree temps to nantucket  and 1-2" of rain to Boston just to name one.

Ice...while I do agree with you to some extent....when this baby winds up and cranks the 850 temps will rise as per the soundings forecast....tough to stay all white.

Anyway, I don't have professional experience, weather has been a sort of hobby for 30 years....so I have been around a while (meteorically speaking that is). LOL

Anyway, you guys (Robbb's, Storm etc) do a nice job explaining the models to the readers...keep up the good work!

Let hope to keep the eastern trend going.....

I agree with you. It is going to be very difficult to stay all snow SE of I-95 per the latest data. Hence why the heaviest snow will accumulate from this afternoon into the evening hours for coastal areas, prior to changing back to sleet. Looks to be virtually all SN nw of I-95. Still some uncertainty in track, but the 12z NAM trend towards the GFS enmb mean is encouraging.

Storm, some very heavy banding heading in my direction. If I can stay all snow for the next 3 hours, my area will already reach 6"+. Temp continues to go down (22.1). However, I remember a temp of 9 with sleet not that long ago. LOL.

Robbbs, you're definitely 8-16" up there, probably the higher end of that range. Good job detecting this storm early, BTW.

Storm, Thanks. You know what they say about broken clocks getting the time right twice a day. LOL.

LOL. Well, at least our winter snowfall forecasts won't look as bad after this storm.