Looks colder.

Boy what an impossible forecast. We straddle the fence in every conceivable fashion.

How?  jog east ?  colder soundings?

Robbbs still coming out the 12z??

I see the center of the storm near Columbia, SC....my guess is the center passes right over Islip,LI
huge ESE fetch in upper layers prior......I'm telling you its a sleet mess for most......even in upper Passaic county

The 850 line stays south of central/northen NJ and western LI the entire duration. The 540 line stays north of all of us the entire duration. Need soundings to ascertain who gets sleet versus snow. I doubt this run clarifies anything. Switch to nowcast mode.

I tend to agree.

BTW, big precip totals continue -- 2" to 2.5" for just about everyone. No doubt a major disruptive winter storm -- impossible to tell whether it's snow or sleet for some, coast stronlgy favors sleet, perhaps even inland or back and forth. I should have been a politician with that wording.

Soundings not out yet, but the 2 meter temperatures are colder than the 850mb numbers. Both lines never make it NW of Monmouth county throughout the storm. (on the GFS) However, there's a pesky warm layer around 750-800mb which will keep snow accumulations under 8" for the city. I still think 4-8" of snow/sleet total for NE NJ/NYC with 3-6" of snow/sleet in central NJ. 12z GFS definitely a touch colder than 06z prior to examining the soundings.

Storm, good read on that. Confirms my earlier thinking that this will be a mixed mess with no clear forecast safe, except that it should stay below freezing on the surface for most.

i just woke up to an all out sleet storm with a temp of 29.7 is it gonna stay like this the hole storm please say no rain for north shore li