Looking at the 12z soundings from OKX, IAD and southeast to WAL, warm air will be working in around 800 mb. The models have this forecast and if you dont look at the entire temperature profile and just look at the 850mb temperatures or 700mb temperatures, you would not see this
warming. As the best vertical moition and heavier precip comes into this afternoon, we will dynamically and evaporatively cool enough for a mix with snow and sleet in the city, but for a period, snow will be the dominant precip type.

Then the flow around 800mb becomes more SE and sleet will become the dominant precip type with rain working west across LI and flirting with Manhattan island. Areas west stay all frozen sleet and snow. I think 3" is still a very good number for Manhattan as some rain will work in later this evening. I think that JFK and LGA will definately go to rain and the eastern end of L.I. It's a very tight precip gradient so you don't have to go too far west and north of Manhattan and you get into the 4-6" area and then farther out 6-8". I could see White Plains get near to 8". Go to Poughkeepsie and you get 12".

The precip will quickly come to an end tonight as the flow aloft turns around from the southwest and a dry slot rages in. It will be windy and cold tomorrow for the St. Patrick's Day pardade and Sunday as well.