Will post analysis here as it comes out. Looking good through 54 hours. Strong high; northerly flow, storm centered further south than the NAM.

Sounds good, but I'm not playing the slit my wrist game... Lollol

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/avn84.html

I wonder if it will stay farther south.

Bombs away 90-96 hours -- beautiful track - comma head too:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/avn90.html

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/avn96.html

This looks great ;D
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/avn102.html

Wowzers, let me go change my pants... lol  ;D

Don't look terry it'll only upset you!  :D

yea but storm what about your  ee rule :D

Its stalls through hours 96-114 over New england

storm:

whats your latest analysis of this ruin besides it being a big hit, any more details

thanks

jim

Dang. How many inches or feet are we talking for NYC if that thing holds up?

LOL. Let yall keep hyping it. Everytime yall do, IMO, if doesn't come here.

Jim, the GFS depicts the partial phase scenario which is the most favorable for big snow along the I-95 corridor. The difference between the 00z GFS and NAM is the handling of the polar vortex. The NAM completely phases a piece of that vortex; thus, allowing the mid-west low to remain dominant -- the result being rain on the coast. The GFS, however, shows the more reasonable outcome as the primary low weakens rapidly in the ohio valley as it interacts with a monster high pressure to the north. This forces the energy transfer to the mid-atlantic coast -- the thermal gradient/baroclinic zone then results in bombogenesis of the secondary low. The 00z GFS is an all-out blizzard for parts of the Northeast. QPF panels coming in now. Once again, details still up in the air - but this system will produce big snows for someone.

heres the total qpf throuhg 108 hrs

It's only in effect when I say it is.   ;D

NAM is worthless this far out -- plus, I need another run of the Euro showing a similar outcome.

Thanks storm, keep up the great analysis

Storm how long have you been a weather enthusiast and did you go to college?

He is in High School. LOL.

Very informative. Thanks!

I've been examining upper-air panels and studying skew-T's before I learned how to walk.

Storm,

The thing to remember is that every model's ensembles, including the Sref for the Nam are further south than the ops run. The ensembles don't support the ops at all. My gut feeling on this storm is central NJ thru NY iis going to get crushed but eastern LI is going to be the big dog winner. The solution for Boston is way too extreme. I also think it will be south oif there and a lesser version of that is what eastern LI will see. The GFS is going to nail this thing. It's the model playing the cold the most logical way.

Guys, i just got home from party and i went to check out 7online and its a nightmare and i knew rightaway where to find you..lol..Anyway so far, it looks like Nam is def outlier and need to come around. On the other hand, GFS make sense and give us 12"+ snow. Got it.

I just got in from NYC and see the promising news.  Great analyses guys.

Icehater - I know you said that Boston area is overdone, but could RI and Eastern MA get the worst of this, like 78?

Was in NE PA most of the day, and wow its nice to come back and see this. 2things

1. Thanks guys for all your informative posts.

2. Were can I find a website to find the soundings for sussex airport for temps pricep etc. I saw they were all ready posting some for Boston. I have this site but it gets updated when the want. LOL   and keep praying to the snow God!!
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.s...amp;submit.y=10

Freezing Drizzle - I think tomorrow's runs will be the key to everything. This storm has dynamics that can make it be the "Boss of Bosses". Phenomenal energy, 2-3" QPF possibilities, pressure gradiant that will lead to 50 mph winds in places etc etc. To pick any area as the bulls eye this early is going to be subject to change. But my gut and instinct and many years of following weather leads me to believe Li is in the catbirds seat. I think Boston is too far north for the bullseye. They get crushed - don't get me wrong - but I think LI is the best choice for biggest snow totals. In this storm 10" is going to be minor, so we are talking big potential numbers here. The key is going to be the coastal, how quickly it gets circ control and crushes any warmth that gets in fromthe primary, and how far north the primary gets. Those are the key things to focus on tomorrow. The Nam needs to lead at some point but it and the MM5 look like they are trying to do things that - as Storm put it - are meteorologically impossible. So they can't be taken seriously yet.

12Z runs tomorrow are going to be very important for the obvious reasons that we all know but also because they are going to shape the newscasts and how this is presented to the public. If the 12Z runs are a continuation of what we are seeing tonight than this is going to be plastered all over the news tomorrow evening.

Thanks Ice, nice summary of possibilities. FD

Obviously, I am a novice (and that's giving me WAY too much credit). But I have question. I keep seeing the phrase CAD, and I don't know what that is? Can someone enlighten me? Thanks!

listarz, cad is cold air damming, not quite sure what that is though,lol

Thanks weathermom. I don't know either. Must be important though. Boy, do I sound like a dumbaxx or what?  ::)

For listrarz - http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/335/

Listarz - did you used to post under another name?

That looks like a good link, freezingdrizzle. And no, I never posted under another name. You're the second person to ask me that. Why do you ask?

Okay, NOW I know what CAD is! More or less. LOL Thanks!

can someone just double check to make sure my email doesn't show up?  thanks.

Okay, NOW I know what CAD is! More or less. LOL Thanks!
Your good. No e-mail

lis' - I guess because you became an active poster very quickly; most start off slowly to get their feet wet. It also seemed like there was some continuity in your discussion. I was wondering if I had corresponded with the person before but under another name.

Some people change their names because trolls were copying their name, like Shri. FD

Yeah, that's just me. I tend to jump right in. Maybe before I should sometimes. But I do have 2 brain cells to rub together and like to learn new things. Oh, and did I  mention... I do LOVE the snow!

Sat -- email shows as "hidden"..can you do the same for me please ? Thanks

surf your email is hidden too