It's a better run than the GFS train-wreck. However, would be a snow to rain event along the coast; possibly big snowstorm for northwest NJ and points north. Complexities galore. I doubt we'll have any kind of model solution or concensus today/tonight. "Currently" (for what's that worth based on all the models), looks like a snow to rain event along the coast; an all snow or snow to mix and/or rain event northwest, depending on distance inland.

so NYC-NOrth all snow?

Ben, depending on how far north.

nYC-NW NJ?

Ben, any forecast made now based on the models is not very reliable. The "current" model concensus (based on my interpretation of all of them) would probably yield an all snow event in the arena of 50 to 100 miles northwest of NYC. However, that is not my forecast. I do not think there is any way to make any call at this point. More time and model runs to look at.

12z runs from the HELL continues!!!!Every single 12z was hell except ukie...

I can't remember too many large storms (actually I can't remember any) that did not have flip flop as to where the rain/snow line was goin g to set up for our area.  We are still two days out and we should all be use to going through this.  Fact of the matter - this was bound to happen.  Better now then Tuesday morning.  This can be a major disappointment but it also can be a huge storm for all of us.  Let's roll with the punches and see where the models take us.  As a resident of Central Jersey where it looks like a change to rain at this time - I'd actually rather see it do this today cause I know it will change.  Let's just hope that change is for the better.

i agree.

The 12z Euro solution isn't all that bad. The secondary low is in perfect position, near 993mb east of VA -- we don't have the 12hr increments, but I'd imagine temperatures would crash. Taken literally it's a snow to rain to snow event for I-95 -- major snows inland from NW NJ to interior southern new england. What's interesting though is the Euro is further SE with the track than the GFS -- but has a similar temp profile.

Not buying into any model run just yet. I still believe this is a major snowstorm for many folks, later runs will determine where.

Robbbs & storm - after looking at the GFS closely the real difference in the outcome change was how it handled the STJ SW in the gulf. Earlier that was the storm that became the secondary on the coast and partially phased giving us the blizzard on the 0Z. Now that system escapes out to sea and becomes the double barrel low east of the main storm that bombs on the coast. So the GFS has gone full phase starting in our area and hugging the coast up to Maine where it then consolidates the eastern part of the double barrel low. What an outcome. It's virtually ends up in the same place eventaully in the north atlantic  as the 0Z but what happens in between is completely difdferent and 1-2' of white become 1-2' of water with little snow anywhere - even north NJ by Robbbs. In this one area the GFS is now consistent with the Nam as the Nam also left that SW behind and it became a very weak low well SE of the coastal bomb.

The Euro has moved away from a full phase now and takes the secondary well SE into a position that would normally be favorable for all of us. But the 850MB low ruins everything and pulls warm air in. The Euro is much better for Boston than the GFS.

I think if the next two runs of the  Nam and GFS don't come more SE we are in serious trouble. We are getting too close to the event and the models should be starting to lock in . Once the California SW gets onshore and that data is digested we should see a final outcome of all this by 12Z tomorrow.

From a Baseball analogy POV I feel like we just lifted a pitcher who through unhittable pitches through 8 innings and brought in a reliever to close the game out and the reliever got blasted all over the park. Incredible.

NWS has adjusted they're forecast to warmer temps, but still have not revised the 5am statement. Not looking so good.

Ice, why are you going into such a long analysis of the models? Didn't Henry say to ignore the models? The very models he relied on initially to make his call? LOL.

Ice,Thanks for the baseball analogy--this could be very disappointing if we get mixing after the "winter" we have had

Robbbs - my number one rule - ignore Henry.