AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
227 PM EST SUN FEB 11 2007

.OVERVIEW...
SWEET-HEART OF A STORM ON THE HORIZON, BUT THE MODELS ARE LIKE A BOX
OF CHOCOLATES, YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT YOUR GONNA GET!

THERE IS PLENTY TO TALK ABOUT AND, CONSIDER WITH THIS FORECAST. SNOW
TO RAIN TO SNOW AND BECOMING ICY ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT PERHAPS. I
WON'T SAY THAT I PREFER 115 INCHES OF SNOW(PARISH, NY)RATHER THAN
ICE, BUT I WOULD PREFER SOME SNOW TO ANY AMOUNT OF ICE. THE UPCOMING
SCENARIO IS A LITTLE WARMER AND FARTHER INLAND WITH A CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN BUT THEN BACK TO SNOW OR EVEN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. NO
MATTER THE OUTCOME, LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO BE VERY
MESSY. QPF AMOUNTS, IF ALL RAIN, WOULD EVEN BE A PROBLEM WITH STREET
FLOODING WITH THE GROUND AS HARD AS A ROCK.

&& 

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A
DECK OF MAINLY LOW LVL MOISTURE NOSING INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO MONDAY. VERY STRONG PACKING BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY
WITH A COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SO WHAT ARE WE IN FOR? FIRST GLANCE
IS THAT WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE HEAVIER SNOW AXIS FARTHER WEST AND
NORTH THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND GO WITH A MIX IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS
BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW THERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S EXCEPT LOWER TEENS NORTH. ON MONDAY HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING MOST
AREAS. LOW MONDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S AND
TUESDAY HIGH IN THE 20S. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW INITIALLY
THEN WE START TO SEE THE WARM UP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SOUNDING DATA
SHOWS PHL GETTING TO NEAR A PLUS FIVE AT THE SURFACE BY WED 12Z.
BEFORE THEN ABOUT 1/4 INCH QPF FALLS. IT WILL BE SNOW THEN WE'LL
START TO SEE A CHANGEOVER AT SOME POINT. THE QUESTION IS, SHOULD I
MAKE SUCH A DRAMATIC CHANGE FROM 10 INCHES IN PHL TO 1 INCH OF SNOW
NOW FORECAST BY THE GUIDANCE, OR REACH FOR ANOTHER PIECE OF
CHOCOLATE?

WITH STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY, WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCHES AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL BE RE-SENDING AN SPS. AS YOU KNOW, REAL ESTATE IS
LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION, WHEREAS STORMS ARE TRACK, TRACK, TRACK!

THE GFS HAS THE LOW OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AT 12Z WED AND THE
NAM ON THE BEACH ON THE DELMARVA. BY 18Z BOTH MODELS MOVE THE LOW
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND BRING IT 48 TO 75 MILES OFF LONG BEACH
ISLAND. WHAT'S HOLDING UP THE PROCESS IS THE LOW OVER OHIO VALLEY IS
SLOW TO WEAKEN AND TRANSFER MOMENTUM TO THE COAST. IT FINALLY DOES
BY 06Z WED WITH 13 DAM HEIGHT FALLS ON THE GFS AND 90 DAM ON THE NAM.
80H WINDS ARE 50 TO 60 KT DRIVING A 550 THICKNESS ALONG THE COAST.

WHAT I AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS WHAT IMPACT WILL THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION HAVE ON THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS AS LIQUID? THAT
IN ITSELF COULD BE A PROBLEM FOR COMMUTERS ON WED AND EVEN THURSDAY
MORNING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, STILL ALOT TO CONSIDER BUT WE STILL
HAVE A COUPLE DAYS TO ARRIVE AT A SENSIBLE SOLUTION.