Out to 48hrs stronger with the CAD -- 1040 mb high battling like crazy against a juicy storm to the south. Details to come. Big differences with Polar Vortex orientation compared to 12z.

this run is looking nicer am i rite storm!!! :P

THIS SUCKS!!!!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...8/fp0_054.shtml

storm..i hope this run will give us good snows and not go up the coast and give us rain

A bit manic there... lol

Go back to sleep everyone. 18z NAM is rain, ice inland.

storm i think its safe to say its OVER for everyone!!!!

Nam is absurdly warm.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_18z/wrf66.html

No one should be giving up on this storm 3 days in advance. Secondary takes over just a bit earlier -- and it's a huge snowstorm.

i have a feeling this storm will be a bust for our area....most models are trending to make the storm go up the coast......JB and Henry are the only two METS still saying the models are wrong, but i think they will be wrong

I'll decide whether to put the nail in the coffin after tonight's 00z runs -- and with that -- a nail in this God-awful winter.

[quote author=Stormchaser link=topic=298.msg1779#msg1779 date=1171226578]
No one should be giving up on this storm 3 days in advance. Secondary takes over just a bit earlier -- and it's a huge snowstorm.
[/quote
Storm, I'm not giving up. However, what are you seeing? This was a terrible run for snow.

[quote author=robbbs link=topic=298.msg1784#msg1784 date=1171226763]
[quote author=Stormchaser link=topic=298.msg1779#msg1779 date=1171226578]
No one should be giving up on this storm 3 days in advance. Secondary takes over just a bit earlier -- and it's a huge snowstorm.
[/quote
Storm, I'm not giving up. However, what are you seeing? This was a terrible run for snow.
[/quote]

Robbbs - agreed. The high pressure is actually stronger on this run -- but the warm air still wins out. I just can't believe the primary would run directly into a 1040mb high that far north.

Alright, for a day now the models were looking great for everyone around here. Snow and lots of it. But the past couple runs haven't been so friendly for snow lovers. I don't think we should all loose hope. The models will jump around and probably start to look better tonight and tomorrow.The models trend east, west, east untill the event happens. Now it's time to trend east again.  I live in Monmouth county and am still feeling confident. If this thing does what we want and stays MOSTLY SNOW, its a slow mover and will without a doubt drop 12 in +!

[quote author=Stormchaser link=topic=298.msg1787#msg1787 date=1171226855]
[quote author=robbbs link=topic=298.msg1784#msg1784 date=1171226763]
[quote author=Stormchaser link=topic=298.msg1779#msg1779 date=1171226578]
No one should be giving up on this storm 3 days in advance. Secondary takes over just a bit earlier -- and it's a huge snowstorm.
[/quote
Storm, I'm not giving up. However, what are you seeing? This was a terrible run for snow.
[/quote]

Robbbs - agreed. The high pressure is actually stronger on this run -- but the warm air still wins out. I just can't believe the primary would run directly into a 1040mb high that far north.
[/quote]
Storm, the only thing to come out of this would be an ice storm inland. Not that I'm buying any of this or giving up yet, but this was just another in a series of terrible runs.

Storm,

It's absurd what the Nam is doing but it keeps doing it and it's either blatantly wrong or it's nailing somethng that doesn't make logical sense. The stronger and colder it makes that high the more it takes the storm right into it trying to cut the high in half. I've never seen a storm do that. If the high was retreating into the atlantic I'd buy this solution in a heartbeat. But the High is trying to build in. Something is screwy here. I keep saying and thinking this is amost the exact thing that the lindsay snowstorm was (except that storm only dealt with a Canadian High, not even an arctic high) and the difference between this model and that storm is the handoff to the coastal happened quickly and the coastal erupted. What's incredible is the transfer to the coastal and the strength of the inland storm are almost identical to that February 1969 storm.

[quote author=robbbs link=topic=298.msg1794#msg1794 date=1171227309]
[quote author=Stormchaser link=topic=298.msg1787#msg1787 date=1171226855]
[quote author=robbbs link=topic=298.msg1784#msg1784 date=1171226763]
[quote author=Stormchaser link=topic=298.msg1779#msg1779 date=1171226578]
No one should be giving up on this storm 3 days in advance. Secondary takes over just a bit earlier -- and it's a huge snowstorm.
[/quote
Storm, I'm not giving up. However, what are you seeing? This was a terrible run for snow.
[/quote]

Robbbs - agreed. The high pressure is actually stronger on this run -- but the warm air still wins out. I just can't believe the primary would run directly into a 1040mb high that far north.
[/quote]
Storm, the only thing to come out of this would be an ice storm inland. Not that I'm buying any of this or giving up yet, but this was just another in a series of terrible runs.



[/quote]


Robbbs, if we don't see a trend the other way on 18z and 00z -- we're going to have put this storm to rest. I do believe we'll see the trend as I'm banking on my pattern recognition -- not some of these wacky model solutions.

Ice,

My thoughts exactly. If a retreating high were being depicted, I'd easily by the scenario of snow to rain -- but it's not. Not just one, but TWO powerful, blocking highs up in southern canada. We're about 60-66 hours out now -- so I doubt the models would remain consistent for the next three days -- we're going to see a trend in one direction. Either a continued trend towards a full phase, or, a return to the earlier solutions of a partial phase. Time will tell, but I'm not ready to give up yet.

Storm,
When is the next set of models we should look out for?

18z GFS out 430-5pm; ensembles by 6pm. If the GFS shows no change I think we're in trouble.

get this high of 36 wednesday WHAT A JOKE!!! lol no way with those to highs there will i even reach 32

18z at it's WORST!! (Am I correct when i say) This model is thrown together with incomplete data???

* Lets goto tonight's Oz runs!!

Storm, did you see my question to LC on Eastern? I'm curious if I get a response. I understand his point about model hugging, but he doesn't give one much confidence if his forecasting argument is "what if the earlier model runs were right"? Is this science? LOL.

Are all the "players" on the field yet? I thought some of the features haven't come into NA yet. Would the models still not be seeing the best data available yet ?

well heres the surface temps animation.  freezing line goes way to our west and north. 

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/animations.html