Pray!

still doesnt look too good

  :'( :-

more rain were doomed!!!

Still time. Wait until tomorrow night to panic.  There are still several model runs to go yet.  If we''re supposed to have a cold front coming through monday night I don't see how temps are supposed to be so warm to allow rain anyway.  The models keep doing this and we keep dancing to their tune.  I think this is going to be a nowcast event.

True. But the models have been trending this way. So if tonight's 0z runs still show this then we have little hope.

Nybrit,

I have been on top of this all day and thank God for this site - away from the nonsense at abc -  but my feeling is that most of the models have moved to a consensus and the end result short of a miracle turn around will be snow at the start followed by a transition to rain for a good chunk of the area - i hope I am dead wrong and the evidence of a strong high is compelling yet all day we have had one bad run after another and the radio mets who are usually pretty good are confident enough to issue a forecast with amounts and the call for a changeover - I maybe dead wrong and hope I am but I see this as pretty much a done deal....

I'm afraid you may be right summer but I am an optimist and there are still a couple of days to go more or less.  We'll see what the models say this time tomorrow.  Though I'm afraid you may be right as when it comes to rain the models always seem to be consistent like you said.  :P

I'm hanging in there until we are near in the nowcast mode Monday eve.  I've been pessimistic all winter but I'm still feeling Ok for N and W (I'm just south of Robbbs by 10 minutes).  As freak just noted, still too early to panic.  This sucker has waffled N to S and back at least 2 cycles in the last 2 days.

I was 040374 on Bill's board... made the changeover  ;D today to here...what a relief to find failiar landscape again!

I find it hard to believe that primary will hold onto it's energy that long when it comes face to face with that strong high..I say 00Z runs are going to say much. Again, I'm thinking a secondary energy transfer is quicker than what the models show..just my opinion. Where is my data? Common sense. You don't have a primary low actually holding control that long so that the secondary bombs out way late.
Can't wait for 00Z. I already have the noose around my neck & a tree all picked out.

There is some weird stuff going on with this whole system. I've never seen anything like this.

Let me start here:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_slp_030m.gif

That blob by Florida is the STJ system that was supposed to be our blizzard. It runs offshore and escapes and that's our big problem. If it was the secondary reforming near the NC coast we'd be golden.

Now watch what eventually happens:

A different secondary now gets going at the Delmarva. If it was further east we'd save the snow becaise it does get going in time.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_slp_066m.gif

and now the thing that will give you all fits:

The original STJ system way out in the atlantic that was supposed to be our blizzard rivals the coastal in strength and is going to take the power from it. What is very frustrating here is there's no arctic airmass or anything happening here. That STJ always had a lot of energy which is why models saw it as a very powerful storm a few days ago and now it's going to become the king storm.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_slp_078m.gif

And here it takes the power from the secondary as the coastal that hugs us starts to dissipate and the storm that was supposed to bury us is finally there - about 800 miles too late.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_slp_084m.gif

This is the ultimate end around you'll ever see and it screws the I-95 corridor of a blizzard.  I've never seen this happen in my life and if someone had predicted this two days ago you'd send the guys in the white suits to pick him up. Bottom line - with all that energy out there it's hard to believe we won't still see changes in the solution. One of the most complex maps I've ever seen and it's all happening because of the way the polar vortex is being played. The models are onto something that is almost hard to grasp. A storm tries to penetrate an arctic dome that it can't, passes a lateral to a secondary that forms to nearby which in turn laterals to the system that would have buried us in the first place and now t's in no position to do so. It almost reminds me of a play you'd run with time running out in a football game.

WOWOWOW!!! ice so ur saying we will see em change again???

I told you it would change again Freak.

ice, im confused, so that means it wont be a big snowfall?

"ice, im confused, so that means it wont be a big snowfall?"


From my post -  "This is the ultimate end around you'll ever see and it screws the I-95 corridor of a blizzard."

Now the pattern is so complex that we have probably not seen the last of some surprises. It's hard to believe it's as cold as it is now, will get colder still to the mid 20's at best Tuesday behind an arctic front, and then see a storm screw us with rain the next day (draining out a massive fresh arctic airmass in doing so) and bring in warm air before it turns bitterly cold again. This whole synoptic and the miss of a snowstorm and instead a storm giving us rain within 24 hours of an arctic front passage is hard to accept. It's why I still don't buy all this model output. It just goes too much against the grain. It's starting to remind me of two years ago when every model under the sun said 2' or more of snow for Boston when all weather logic said that snow should be 150 miles northwest of Boston. Robbbs and I discussed the illogical model output on Bill's board that day and we said we thought the hit would be in New Hampshire and Vermont. it played out exactly that way and Boston got hvy rain that day. The illogic we saw in the models were that they (all of them) were trying to take Boston from 50 to a blizzard in 12 hours while Vermont and New Hampshire were only in mid-upper 20's dry air. It made no sense and the models were dead wrong. The MM5 was the first one to correct itself and the Nam needed two more runs before latching on - while it was raining in Boston! This also makes no sense to my weather knowledge. Let's hope the models are dead wrong this time too.

Would be quite the slap in the face, Ice. I haven't topped 32 degrees in over 8 days -- we've been below average since the middle of January; an arctic shot the day before snd after the storm -- we still get rain! The headline of this winter should be, "Expect the unexpected."

Ice--That was one helluva explaination and a very interesting set-up. Like you said, just like a football game play!
This is going into nowcast mode..I can feel it..I don't think the models will ever have a handle on this system.......

Ice, last time I looked, the JMA was the only model that still showed a massive snowstorm for most of our area. At least there's still one on the table. There are a number of aspects of this event which do appear to conflict with the models' take on it. Even the NWS forecasts, while largely a hedge, are not completely buying into the mostly rain scenario. Still, there is pretty amazing closeness between the NAM and GFS models and the NAM has been consistent for many runs, while the GFS has had two successive train-wreck runs. If the 00z runs tonight still show the same, there's still tomorrow. However, with each run closer to the event, you would think the models would be closer to the correct solution.

Actually Geek - it's easy. Just watch that STJ shortwave. If it escapes out to sea we have a problem. If it doesn't the models will screw this up. If it does than the nowcasting will be about the freezing line and where the secondary forms. But the Nam is so warm you may not even see a snowflake if it verified.

Storm - My backyard is still snow covered from the 3.5" of snow 3 weeks ago. My driveway is still snow lined on both sides and about half of my front yard is still snow covered. It lasted longer than the Blizzard of 2006's 2' of snow.

I got an inch out of that, and where I brushed it into a pile off the steps, about the size of my fist, is still there! It just can't rain after all this. Snow gods, say it ain't so! :D

If we didn't have bad luck--we wouldn't have any at all!  I am amazed at the turn of events.  As like most people who  read this and channel 7's board, I wait until Robbs, Ice and Storm are in consensus on the models.  This morning I was quite confident in this one, now, not so much. This one must be awfully tricky for the forecast to have changed so radically.

Not to be sarcastic here but this is weather, its unpredictable, the computer models may be able to predict a storm coming, but knowing where exactly it will go is pretty hard. Just like in a hurricane or tornado, they jump around. I am wanting snow like everyone else but these models have jumped around a lot in the past few days and i think they will continue to do so until tomorrow afternoon or so.

JMA to hold you folks over until 00z:

If it changed one way , it could just as easily change back, she said with her fingers and toes crossed!  ;D

Ice--was looking @ the links you posted..never saw anything like it..energy being handed off from a primary low to secondary finally to a tertiary low way out in the atlantic..hopefully that energy in FLA will not get too far out and the last low to get the energy transfer is the secondary along the shore..time will tell..

no snow to be found here..just ice in the pool..

remember--JMA nailed blizz 06 a week out!

YEA FOR THE JMA!!!!

Robbbs - I actually am wondering if bad data is driving both runs plus the MM5. The Ukie, JMA and Euro do not show the aggressive and radical outcomes the Nam and GFS do. The Euro is bad with Cad too - it's one of it's big weaknesses - and it's probably 5 degrees too warm as a result. I think all Mets are disbelieving the US models and making major forecasting adjustments. We'll see if the 0Z runs correct this or hold on to these radical solutions. 12Z runs tomorrow are the real make or break. Remember all these players are still over data poor regions. error magnitude is still large and there's a lot of disagreement across the model universe right now. If I'm a Met I leave myself a lot of error margin in any forecast.

BTW - If I was sitting in albany or Vermont I'd still be very worried right now. This is no lock for anyone just yet.

Wow that JMA is a bit dramatic with the 540 line don't you think?

"Storm - My backyard is still snow covered from the 3.5" of snow 3 weeks ago. My driveway is still snow lined on both sides and about half of my front yard is still snow covered. It lasted longer than the Blizzard of 2006's 2' of snow."

Ice, I have a pile of dirty snow at the end of my driveway -- at least I think it's snow -- can't quite tell anymore.

Oh c'mon guys! I don't know squat. Is this good or what?

That JMA is so damm logical, I want to hug it. That's what is amazing, no one's following a model that makes sense right now. Hey - the JMA probably also has the best pacific data of all the models and the pacific is so key. Didn't think of that till Robbbs brought up the JMA.

Bottom line: Another 24 hours of agony to go.

This 540 line is good where it is, right ? Cold air north... warmer air south. Did I get the gist or am I way off base?

Guys don't forget, computers/models are only as good as the people putting the data into them.

lis', the technology does not exist yet to predict complex sytems like this; this far from the event. FD

Yes, on the JMA it's good. The map I posted is an all-out blizzard for many. Can the blind squirrel find another nut?

You are correct....you wanna be above the 540 for any chance of snow.....most times at least.

Wow! I might actually be catching on here!  ;D I like the blind squirrel/nut thing!  ;)

JMA nailed 06, maybe it's leading the blind (NAM/GFS) with 07..