While the 12z Models of today have really put a damper on the potential storm on tuesday/wednesday..I am still confident(though it is draining very quickly) that most in the Tri-State will see major snows (10"+)..
While I can't post maps and all of that stuff and while I am not up to the knowledge of Storm,Robbs, and Ice..it is a normal state that these models, in the range, shift on MAJOR/HISTORIC events. PD II, for instance, was one of the those cases..and was 2/5/03..
Models Flip-Flop.. Friday/Yesterday we were in a possible blizzard..today we are talking possible rain/mix issues..
Is it coincedental that all models tread the storm closer to the coast? Does that meen a full-phase is occuring?
I dont buy it. Tonight you probably will see a trend back east..and then tomorrow 12z will be back to where friday was..atleast thats what I am thinking..
It doesnt make sense the 12z Models today..it is impossible to have a major swing like that in 24 hrs..the models will trend back
I am going to stick my neck out and all of you can chastize me all you want for this..but i am going to buy Fridays 12z UKMET and add a part of the 12z EURO to it. I won't say amounts yet..probably not until tomorrow afternoon..but I feel that the models cant have had this storm for as long as it had to jsut trend it this close to the coast after 8-9 consecutive runs of where they were at..