Finally getting active


[img width=500 height=333]http://i12.tinypic.com/4zdbjf5.jpg[/img]

Looks like it maybe heading towards the Caribbean.

Oh boy, here we go. Since it waited this long, I wonder if they will start going buck wild since they haven't been active since June.

066
ABNT20 KNHC 310919
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE...LOCATED ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHATHAM
MASSACHUSETTS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.  THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AROUND
15 MPH.

324
AXNT20 KNHC 311046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE CENTERED NEAR 37.8N 64.9W AT 31/0900
UTC OR 330 NM NORTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 330 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS MOVING NNE 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH THE DEEP
CONVECTION CONFINED TO WITHIN 120-150 NM NORTHEAST OF THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THIS ENVIRONMENT UNTIL IT TRANSITIONS TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN 24 HOURS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEPRESSION TO REACH STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THAT TIME. 

1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N50W POSSIBLY SPAWNED BY THE RE-LOCATED
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W WAS LOCATED ABOUT 650 NM E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH A BAND OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN
120-150 NM OF THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FOR DEVELOPMENT AND COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE RE-LOCATED TO ALONG 34W/35W S OF 20N WITH A
TRAILING 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N29W. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AT 10-15
KT WHILE THE LOW WAS DRIFTING WWD. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WAS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH
ADDITIONAL TURNING NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRAILING LOW.
A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE
LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED MAINLY
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AND ITCZ BETWEEN
29W AND 38W.

RE-LOCATED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W S OF 18N WAS MOVING W 15 KT.
THE WAVE WAS RELOCATED BASED ON SSMI DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER (TPW) IMAGERY WHICH CLEARLY SHOWED THE AXIS OF THE WAVE
FURTHER W AND SEPARATING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR 10N50W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPREADING WWD OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC IS
TILTED FROM 23N67W THROUGH 15N69W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 5N69W MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE NOTED IN TRADE WIND CUMULUS FIELD GENERALLY IN THE ARE
BETWEEN 66W-76W. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING
AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 13N23W 8N34W 11N44W 9N55W
8N60W. EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF W AFRICA WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST
FROM 9N-16N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 54W AND 59W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH CENTERS OVER THE TEXAS
BIG BEND AND E-CENTRAL TEXAS APPEARS TO BE RETROGRADING TO THE W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDED ESEWD ACROSS THE NE GULF TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS A RESULT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED
OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR 24N99W WAS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AS IT MOVED INTO NE
MEXICO. MODERATE BUT SOMEWHAT DIFLUENT NELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS
ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
GULF AND ALSO MAINTAINING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOTED OFF THE ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTS. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A 1015 MB HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OR SO. THE PRESENCE OF
DIFLUENT FLOW SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH HOLDS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE
GULF AND NORTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA NEAR 9N78W NW TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR BELIZE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
COUPLED WITH DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 67W. WIDELY SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PER SAN
JUAN WSR-88D DATA...AND ALSO MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL WINDWARD
ISLANDS IN ADVANCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W. 

ATLANTIC...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE. VERY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE N ATLANTIC WITH SHORT TERM
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. BROAD TROUGH COMPLEX
OVER THE NW ATLANTIC WITH FIRST NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SEWD THROUGH 38N67W TO 35N64W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ALLOWING DEEP
CONVECTION TO PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF
THE DEPRESSION. A SECOND POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING IN
FROM THE NW AND CUTTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE
CAROLINAS HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST
AHEAD OF ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 32N76W AND A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO NEAR 29N79W. THE FLOW IS STRONGLY
DIFLUENT AS WELL IN THIS AREA AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO OVERALL
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. 

FURTHER S...AN ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS FROM 31N57W SWWD TO
THE WRN BAHAMAS WITH SOME MODERATE SUBSIDENCE NOTED S OF THE
RIDGE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 30N51W MOVING WWD 10 KT HAS
ASSOCIATED SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING SWWD TO A SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NEAR 20N65W. ANTICYCLONES NEAR 16N48W AND 26N27W
AND ASSOCIATED FLOW PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC
WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. UW CIMSS SAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER THE ATLANTIC E OF
45W THOUGH THE COVERAGE IS NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS PREVIOUS DAYS.
AT THE SURFACE...DRY STABLE AIR E OF 60W AND A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION NEAR 41N41W
DOMINATE THE ATLC GIVING THE AREA FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

$$
COBB

[img width=600 height=387]http://i9.tinypic.com/67zkdvq.gif[/img]

There is a Low just North of South America I think we should watch

[tt]A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N55W IS ABOUT 325 NM E OF THE SOUTHERN 
WINDWARD ISLANDS. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION HAS APPEARED INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS INTACT. THE SYSTEM STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EVEN IF DEVELOPMENT
DOES NOT OCCUR...THE LOW WILL LIKELY BRING SQUALLS TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. [/tt]
[img width=600 height=387]http://i15.tinypic.com/4r2ya2f.gif[/img]

[tt]THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH.  REGARDLESS OF WHETHER DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SQUALLS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. [/tt]

[tt]AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS PRESENTLY
ENROUTE TO THE LOW CENTER.[/tt]



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Apparently noone cares about the tropics

Looks like something forming off the Georgia Coast


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_slp_084l.gif

Still looking pretty bland to me.

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/augustnon...e_animated.html

But it's still only August 1st. This is about the equivalent of December 15th in winter. Three named storms so far but the three are about as meaningless as it gets. Pattern is setting up to block the canadian fronts and that should set up less shear in the tropics making a favorable setting for development. But strong western Atlantic ridges likely steer storms well south. We'll see. 

Who uses weather.com any more  ::)  :D look at this


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html


[tt]AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DID NOT
FIND A LOW LEVEL CENTER DURING ITS LAST FLIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES W NEAR 15 KT.[/tt]

TWC maps are good and that one I linked shows the whole ocean for a better perspective. I hope you realize that anyone who knows weather knows GOES.

The one that Ice used is better. The color on the map make it look more interesting.

That wave off the west coast of Africa looks like it needs to be watch the next few days.

The GOES maps are best once a storm has formed. Plus you can view it in IR, water vapor etc. But to see the view of the whole tropical Atlantic and Carribean for widespread signs of development, and high pressure placement - I prefer the TWC map.

Over night the Low has really stated to get better organized

[img width=600 height=387]http://i19.tinypic.com/5xzxt80.gif[/img]

Shear has annihilated this system as of this writing. The system never had any organizerd circ in the first place but that blow-up last night was impressive  while it lasted.

No one ever gave this much of a chance and there's still plenty of shear and unfavorable conditions ahead of it. We'll see if it survives the shear and gets some life back once it gets thru it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ft.html

I'm starting to get the feeling this is another dead season but unlike last year I don't yet have strong feelings about it yet.

[tt]...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W/67W WITH A 1011 MB
LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N MOVING RAPIDLY W NEAR 20 KT. AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND A LOW LEVEL CENTER
AND WIND SPEEDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN A DAY OR TWO WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE W
CARIBBEAN. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA FROM THE ABC ISLANDS TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE W MOVING OVER CUBA AND JAMAICA ON FRIDAY. [/tt]

Still a hostile enviroment. Look at that wall in the middle of the Atlantic. That's what we had last year and it killed off any western development and it curved any development off Africa right back east.

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/augustnon...e_animated.html

GFS showing a lot of trop activity developing after August 20th or so. I would discard the storms themselves and the placement of them but I would respect the fact that the GFS is saying conditions for favorable development and an active period is setting up.

Atlantic still not storm friendly but it's becoming less hostile than earlier. Also look at how last night's T-storm complex stayed so well organized far offshore.

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/augustnon...e_animated.html

I hear you Ice, just looked at the GFS and yeah it looks to be getting more active-Mid August and September are the most active months for Hurricane development I believe