Just look at this image from e-wall. The lower right looks like a neg tilted summer squall line. This is - in the words of Simon Cowell - "utterly Amazing". The question I have is why is arctic air even wasting its time coming in to our area later tomorrow night. It's useless and should just take a shortcut to its final destination. The Nam is so aggressive that it has now brought precip issues to Albany! This is a storm like no storm I've ever seen. But what the heck - what can you expect of a winter that tops 70 in January and gives you a number of other days near that number in the same month. Anyone want to help me hoist up the white flag. This winter is in serious need of someone putting it to death. In 24 hours this blizzard we were set to have seems like it was all going to happen 6 months ago. Are we all really experiencing this. You know I saw "The Illusionist" last night and I'm now convinced it had an effect on this outcome.

BTW - Isn't it great that the LES areas now get real snow!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_12z/wrf78.html

There is some method to the madness of the models.

The "Blizzard" and tremendous snows that we were expecting from 5 days out were based on a storm that was between Calif and Hawaii.  The model data was not very accurate, so the models did the best they were able to.  Take a storm out of the Pacific, move it across the country. phase it with a cold high and BINGO, blizzard.....but......now that storm has made it inland.  Numbers that were not available out in the pacific are now available on land.  These numbers are feed into the models and now you have an inland runner as opposed to a coast hugger.  I think earlier, i forget who posted, something about the blob over Fla stealing away the thunder of this storm.  I think a lot of that makes sense.This low will move into the Ohio valley, will have no strength to hand off the storm to the coast, and stays powerful inland.
So in closing- Va, MD, PH were all looking for massive snows.  Then it was AC, NJ and NY/LI.  Then it was north of 95.  Then it was Orange county.  Now its Albany.  Next, Oswego gets heavy rains and all that water melts down to Broadway.  On the countrary, can you see Oswego getting the brunt of this with 2 - 3 feet of snow, on top of 10 feet now....YIKES....

In closing i hope the models swap back and give us the snow we so richly deserve....

Peace out ya'll

wow...this better change.  takes on the GFS anyone??>

Ice, based on the NAM the coastal is simply too close to the coast. What kills is that there is no anchored high to the north or northeast to usher in cold air while the moisture sweeps in from the ocean. Thus, no coastal frontal zone develops and the warm air from the sea just rushes in. Nothing to hold it back. Inland, low level cold will probably lead to much ice.

Something still doesn't make sense here. 00z GFS has two seperate, weak lows off the SE US coast. One would think a more compact/stronger secondary would develop along the baroclinic zone -- but it doesn't.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/avn60.html

Off to bed.

Robbb's- I'll take the rain over ice, sleet's  a different story as it's mnanagable and can be driven on. This is where we needed a negative NAO. Useless winter and none of us are going to trust any runs going forward. The reversal of the runs like this requires a healing period.

I think we'll get dryslotted on this storm. It's a dryslot i look forward to. Nam is now cutting back precip here, particularly on the coast.

this hole sotrm is a big joke!!!

I just hope I do not wake up tommorrow and here this storm is going inland and we will get mostly rain. That would be a  trend I don't want to see. If it is still a coast hugger than there is at least some hope. As for these models, they can't be taken to seriously more than 3 days out, they just fluctuate way to much.