000
WTNT41 KNHC 022359
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  AL062007
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX
HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE.  THE AIRCRAFT
REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 152 KT...WITH PEAK SFMR WINDS
OF 142 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  HIGHER SFMR WINDS WERE FOUND
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...UP TO 163 KT...BUT THESE MAY HAVE BEEN
CONTAMINATED BY GROUPEL.  A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND THIS DROP YIELDED A
SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 139 KT BASED ON THE LOWEST 150 M LAYER AVERAGE.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE PEAK SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT
LEAST 145 KT.  AN EYE SONDE MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 936 MB
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 24 KT.  BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND
GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING
ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITIES.  NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE BEING
MADE.  THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE
SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/0000Z 13.8N  72.9W  145 KT
12HR VT    03/0600Z 14.1N  74.5W  150 KT
24HR VT    03/1800Z 14.8N  78.0W  145 KT
36HR VT    04/0600Z 15.4N  81.1W  145 KT
48HR VT    04/1800Z 16.0N  83.5W  145 KT
72HR VT    05/1800Z 17.3N  87.7W  135 KT
96HR VT    06/1800Z 19.5N  91.5W    80 KT
120HR VT    07/1800Z 21.5N  95.0W    90 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

[img width=600 height=251]http://i7.tinypic.com/4ypqfx2.jpg[/img]

This has to be the fastest strengthening I have ever seen. Just last night it was a Tropical Storm and now it is a Category 5, I'm starting to think this is Simone from Category 7.

"Extreme turbulence NE eyewall."

"BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND
GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING
ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX."


...  :o :o

Well folks, this is definitely history in the making.

Felix dropped 59 MilliBars in 24 Hours.

[img width=600 height=400]http://i3.tinypic.com/5xfbm1s.jpg[/img]


[img width=600 height=450]http://i18.tinypic.com/4lih7v7[/img]

this storm is stronger than Dean and heading for the same general area. 165 mph sustained and gust to 200mph. Pressure 27.58.

Is it likely that the storm will lose some punch in the western Caribean when it reaches waters that Dean has already disturbed? Hurricanes do re-distribute energy by causing upwelling in waters, and by moving energy from low to high latitudes.

Not only Felix will hit Mexico, but I hear it could raise prices for Oil in the US.

The area will only become more favorable for development as it reaches those waters.

Felix has the smallest eye wall I have ever seen.


[img width=600 height=401]http://i14.tinypic.com/4p9eq8g.jpg[/img]

As exciting as weather can be, just returning from a labor day BBQ, I keep thinking of all those people in Felix's path. The family of a wonderful woman who works in my home is from Honduras and all I ask from my fellow weather gurus is to keep positive thoughts that everyone will be okay.  This terrific lady comes to work tomorrow and am awaiting to hear how things are going, if she even knows.  I'm fascinated, like all of you, by mother nature and all she has to share and teach us, but tonight, I worry and hope you don't mind keeping our neighbors to the south in your thoughts.  ???

Amen, it is amazing how a thunderstorm can turn into such a amazing storm.

Felix made landfall this morning as a CAT 5 with 160mph winds

The scene is described as Total Disaster with metal roofs flying like knives

Various media talking about how yesterday was only the second known time that two tropical systems made landfall on the same day (last time was in 1992 and one of the storms was Andrew.)

In Upstate New York this morning again and a wide range of temperatures was reported ranging from 30 in the Adironadacks to 60 in the Finger Lakes due to the placement of clouds across the area.

sweet lightning pic

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/weather/09/0...elix/index.html