Long range looks very interesting to me. I just saw the latest GFS and it continues to go in the direction of a secondary storm developing off Virginia Sunday night and taking the storm up the coast. It even has a major snowstorm in New York city. Ok, let's not get too excited just yet, but one has to only see that the NAO is going negative again, and just like the last time it went negative, a storm will end up on the East coast. If you go just by the GFS right now, snow would develop in the Plains and spread east into the Appalachians, than the secondary storm will take over and snow would spread from Virginia to New England. This certainly one to watch because the cold air is coming in and that means the potential for snow over a large area...

funny guy lol

i wouldnt throw his idea away yet. noaa just put snow in my forecast for sunday and monday... the gfs is actually better 5-7 days away from a storm then 2-4. so ya never kno..obviously henry is a lil crazy but i still read his blog everyday...keeps the weather fun lol

i hope this comes true,i think it will becuase my highs next week is gonna be inthe low to mid 30s so theres the cold air,i think we might see something big,wuts the jma saying

Funny thing is that the Accu-weather site has sunny for Sunday.... ???

Well you'll get your snowstorm then!  Seems to me accucrap 15 day outlook is the worst outlook going  ;)

henry updated,hes saying that a major storm along the east coasts that blows up,then he says the extreme case is that the 195 corridor gets shut down  :ohmy:

That meens storm canceled :ohmy:

ha lol,hes been a jinx

henry saying that he hats to  use the B word, but that is the extreme of the storm he says :ohmy:

Just read his posts at accu for fun, but dont take him seriously :mad:, he changes his thoughts and predictions by each model run...He's no met IMO, he's a model reader, which most of us can already do  :biggrin:

i dont but it funny though

Accuweather post from earlier:



By the weekend, the low and other ingredients will be in place to create a large winter storm that could spread rain across the southern Plains and substantial snow from the central Rockies across the central Plains to the northern Great Lakes.

Snow could reach northern New England by late Sunday, with strong winds developing behind the system early next week.

Severe Weather Expert Henry Margusity is monitoring computer models that show the potential development of the storm. Margusity reports "I still believe the storm stays in the southern branch of the jet and does not get picked up by the northern branch until it reaches the Appalachians. At that point, we get secondary development along the (east) coast."

He posted this yesterday, even though he had today's date erroneously listed -- sort of tells you something about him if he can't even get the date right. He's since hedged as the new data came in.

henry update

he is saying that he thinks that there are errors in the gfs and euro models

http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?...og=meteomadness

GFS GOING WAY TO STRONG...EURO HAS A BLIZZARD FOR THE LAKES...NAM COMING INTO THE GAME....

1. I think the real key to this storm is how the models handle the system off California. The GFS run is now taking that system and whipping it through the Southwest and making a huge storm from Nevada to the front range of Colorado which looks odd to me this morning. Why would the model jump on the first system and develop a storm right-off-the-bat while the main energy has yet to get involved. The whole evolution of the storm on the model just looks very goofy to me this morning...

2. The EURO is playing that same game, but has a more extreme look, one that I hope does not come true. Why, it would play out as an extreme event for the Great Lakes. High Winds, falling temperatures and snow would create blizzard conditions. While the ingredients are there for it to happen, it just looks way overdone to me this morning...


3. The NAM is now getting into the game and it looks to me the model is handling the Southwest system much better. Instead of whipping the Southwest system out in advance of he energy coming through the West, it is waiting for the energy to arrive. It also has a much flatter look to the overall pattern which leads me to believe that later runs will show a flatter storm coming out instead of a big storm heading into the Lakes.

Updated: 11/28/2007 7:11 AM

I hope he's right but I swear, Henry is the Bagdhad Bob of weather forecasters.

"There will not be rain.  There will only be snow."  Meanwhile, it's raining cats and dogs outside. :biggrin:

If he is RIGHT!!!!!!!! he will never let us down, and can you imagine....he'll be predicting blizzards 25 days out...come on HENRY BRING THIS HOME....

I have to say that while I agree that Henry is usually a hypomaniac  ::) I think that his reasoning is good. (at least from my limited meteorological understanding) He is not the only one who thinks that the GFS is a bit nuts.  I think that once these storms hit the states and we start getting data as to how they will interact with other factors, the models may start coming around more towards the NAM.  Not saying that this is going to be a huge storm, but I do think that nothing is set in stone yet.

Is JB still mum on this?

I don't want to hear from that traitor! :biggrin:

henry loves the DGEX lol

Have not heard anything form any one mentioning JB....Henry still thinks we the NYC area could get a nice little storm.....will know more by Friday morning I would think....

First, and I don't wish to be mean-spirited, Henry is the laughing stock of Accuweather -- even among his fellow mets there. He has no respect because people there know how incredibly inaccurate & irresponsible he is. Second, I had to watch his video today (please - never again) because of all the posts about him here. His video has abandoned his earlier idea that this would be any kind of winter storm around here. He is saying that for places close to here (inland suburbs) there may be a frozen start, then change-over to rain. Even Henry cannot ignore the current overwhelming data that this will not be a winter storm for anyone in the I-95 corridor. A far cry from his "B" word warnings for here from a day or two ago. Be that as it may, people holding on to him for some hope of a winter storm for the weekend are grasping at straws since his own video today contradicts that, not that I ever care what he has to say but I wanted to correct the record.

robbs the "B"word was goin to be for the western lakes...he certainly said nothing of that for the I 95 corridor

Heck even Elliot Abrams from Accu is saying RIAN for us, amazing he is from Accu too....HENRY??????

Read his posts from a day ago -- he used the B word for the I-95 corridor -- he also said the words shut-down & paralyzing for here as possibilities. Here's where his incredible irresponsibility shows. The 18z GFS model on Monday was showing exactly that. However, it's one thing for a weather board to talk about that, knowing full well it would likely change. Look at the thread I started Monday night on this. We all knew it was for fun because none of us were buying into that solution 5.5 days out. Meanwhile Henry, a pro met with his own video blog on accuweather, goes berserk with his "forecasts". He does this always. A blizzard is always around the corner and he's always wrong. But hey, if that's what people want for entertainment, or hope, or whatever that's ok. Just keep all that in mind.

Good posts on this Robbs!

Storm Thoughts 1pm Wed
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
DON'T TRUST THE GFS...

I saw the 12z run of the GFS and I still don't buy it. Below is the 12z run of the Canadian model. It's basically a compromise between the GFS and my idea the secondary storm does develop. It runs one center into the Lakes and as energy shoots into the trough, secondary storm development occurs along the coast and heads northeast. My thoughts are that while parts of the Great Lakes will pick up snow and perhaps even a mix, the real snow is going to occur across parts of New York and northern New England into Maine as the secondary takes over. Also, I still want to emphasize that the cold air ahead of the storm will hold and many folks will see snow and sleet for several hours, despite any change to rain. This includes the I-95 corridor from Washington to Boston. I know a lot of you who live in that area love snow and want to see snow, and unless the GFS is correct and really pulls the storm into the Lakes, you should see some snow. The map I issued will not be changed until one of two things happens, I see enough evidence and consensus in the models to make the change or it's wrestle-mania with JB in the operations room at AccuWeather.

To quote Chris "Mad Dog" Russo:

"You can't trust this guy in a big spot."

I hope he's right but this guy's been way off so many times, it's hard to put much credence in this.

Much - how about any? who are you going to trust henry or allen, goldberg, evans, kasper, gregory and marshall who are all singing the same basic tune...

Bearing in mind what robbbs said the other day about it not being good us being in the bullseye 5 days out, maybe it's good that we're not in the bullseye right now.  There are still a few days to go the storm hasn't even got going yet so anything is possible.  I haven't given up hope despite all the gloom about what the models say.  Having said that I'm certainly not taking Henrys word as gospel either!

he thinks the 12z is wrong and he sees a secondary low form and he sees the i95 corridor seeing snow to

Exactly, although I find Marshall particularly annoying with that silly smirk. 

Both the 12z CMC and UKMET show have a secondary storm develop along the SNE coast, but it's too late for us. The 12z Euro looks pretty much looks like the 12z GFS. The Euro has been leading the way with the models, with consistently showing the primary storm, strong and going over the Great Lakes. I trust that model more.

Agreed.  I don't see how anyone can take him seriously. 

Trust me, so do I.  It's been a rough day for us snow-lovers.  First, the models keep pointing to a warm solution with Sunday's storm.  Then we see Robbs' post about a change back to warmth around 12/15.  Not exactly a smashing start to Winter 07-08.  It's kind of like getting excited about opening day, then watching your team get hammered.

henry said if the gfs is right,nyc and the i95 could still see couple of inches of snow before rain becuase of the cold air

i just like how he keeps the weather fun and intertaining...the rest of the mets just read the models and make a forecast based on the model...i think we can all be mets on tv if we just read the models and make a forecast on what they say. models are used for guidance and he puts its own twist on it..at least he has the balls to say something haha...the rest of the local mets just say w/e the models say...i think im gonna have my own weather show and just read models liek the rest of the local mets around here

I'd take that.  Hey, it's a start, lol!

he says snow or sleet  :ohmy:

Oh, no! Why must you use that five-letter word? :P

Well, it wouldn't be as bad as last year's 9-degree sleetstorm.

If we were within say 48-60 hours of this thing then i would agree with you w/o a doubt.  But we're not.  We still have enough of a window where the models can change, and if we see that, they will all change their forecasts very quickly.  Those guys don't normally give detailed forecast beyond a few days anyway.  Not saying they're not good at it, just that they don't do it, and there is a reason for that.  I'm also not saying i expect the models to change but like i said there is still enough of a window where it wouldn't surprise me.  So take THAT to the bank summer!  haha just busting  :biggrin:

yea,i was at 19  degrees when the sleet started last year

Good point.  I can't remember his name at the moment (Max something) but the leading hurricane forecaster at NOAA that is retiring this year sharply criticized forecasters for being inaccurate with respect to this year's hurricane forecast.  He basically said that the prognosticators are clueless when it comes to long-range outlooks.

I know it's Henry but he brings up several thoughts that i have as well. There is a ton of cold air place before this system comes thru maybe the GFS is not handling that very good right now.Read his new post on Accuweather.



It is funny on this board and several others at times.A couple GFS runs showing rain and people swear that's what's going to happen.People there is still a couple days before this event.A lot can change.A LOT..I just have a feeling a gut feeling that NYC will still see some kind of snow.Accumulating don't know about that but will see snow.

mr. snow,

everyone is saying be cautious because it is way too early to predict with 100% accuracy what will happen - but henry is a joke who always predicts snow and is usually wrong - the models have been trending consistent with a rain scenario - the best mets in the area - I mentioned them before - are all leaning toward a rain scenario - reality is a tough thing but we have to stay grounded

summer

With weather there is no such thing as a certainty and surprises do happen. However, Henry's thoughts fly in the face of rational, conventional, & accepted meteorological practices and thinking and he's wrong constantly. It's all about hype and/or exceptionally unlikely possibilities. This is the last I'll say on this because it's a waste of time for me to comment on that guy nor do I care in the least what he has to say. Hate to put it in such terms but he's that bad (and I never have a bad thing to say about anyone; well I guess I did now). BTW, Henry actually posted on Eastern about two times until he had his head handed to him by hobbyists, not even pros, who ran circles around him and his forecasts. He was in over his head and that much he knew so he ran for the hills.

he updated by looking at the nam and he said that nam is colder and he said by sunday morning,its snowin in the major citices

i think he might end up being right about this storm after all