Called for conditions that would be this bad this morning.

This is why people who think we can predict, with any degree of accuracy, weather far in advance should be taken with a dose of caution...

As late as 11:00pm last night most mets said snow would come in around mid-day (sunday) however this morning by 5:00am with a small amount of snow and frigid temps. conditions outside are very dangerous (also the first snow)

The city and the coast will go to rain and this will get washed away but the lesson here is that even less than 12 hours from the event the mets cannot get the timing correct and factor in how the cold temps make everything stick and become one sheet of ice

I drove one mile to get the Times and the conditions are extremely icy and dangerous be careful gang if you have to go out

noaa doesnt have me going to rain til way later today and tonight wich i belive because temps are still falling

summer, I dont even watch them anymore.  Most arent even actual mets.  I probably know more  than half of them.

me to,noaa has me going to rain after sundown,if it keeps this up,maybe couple of inches like henry said

And RG if this one was a weekday morning the area would be in traffic nightmare that would take all day to clear up

Yes I was not expecting anything like this, temp is 23.2 and still dropping. Snow is coming down moderately and looks pretty nice. Enjoy it guys

It's amazing isn't it? That's why I hold hope until the bitter end. This time I was rewarded!

and u see y i didnt give up on this

it's the miracle of snow, summer and rg agreeing ;) christmas is around the corner

:laugh:, Im a changed man.

yea but its not as big as you thought it was gonna be lol

:ohmy: lol

The precip overcame the dry air much faster than I expected. However, don't let the cold temps fool you. Despite my temp down to 15.0 and snow falling, the sky has that look of upper air warming. No way the snow stays into the pm in NYC IMO as well as here.

i didnt say it was gonna be big,i said watch henry be right,i bet u when he gets up,hes gonna be happy,does anyone know how it is near him in state college

:laugh:

Mets are still calling for <1" in NYC. Are they nuts? LOL.

i think we gonna go over to sleet sometime this afternoon

and another thing,upton was the only one saying slight chance of snow before daybreak and look wut happen

models have it snow here to about 1 or so.  I still think we all go to rain later tonight

yea me to

Rgwp -- I'll take that bet. IMO it goes over much sooner (to sleet).

My guess is that most spots turn quicker then you think - temps are surging in western pa, west virginia

the AD is holding though so im not worried at all actually on my temp thing they went DOWN in pa instead of up.

im at 19 now and falling  :ohmy:

Yes, it would appear that things are changing over quickly...we have sleet now...never did see any snow.

I have to go out at 10 so I wont know(will be inside at my daughters cheering competition)

Summer,

I've been calling for 1-3" of snow today with surface temps below freezing right until very late afternoon or early evening. That still looks to be the case as numbes are 3-4F below MOS guidance right now. Many folks are snowing in the teens and low 20s. That low level cold is NOT going to get scoured out in the blink of an eye -- for inland areas. Still looks mostly frozen for sussex county up until midnight, but by then, most of the precip may be over.

I'm sorry but I just watched NBC Weather Plus and they said maybe a half inch at the most in the city. Not sure if this is recorded? Well there was certainly an inch in some spots in the park an hour ago and it's still snowing hard.  Clearly the models have not handled the strength of the cold air well, that, combined with the fact they seem to never fully realize the dynamic cooling factor of the snow makes me discount alot of their forecasts.  It's 21 in the park now.  ABC 7 says it will be 34 at 3pm.  I aint buying it.  That's alot f warming with cloud cover in about 6 hrs.

My forecast is not busting, and neither is Mt. Holly's or Upton's -- it was clear to me the low-level cold would be more intense than progged after noting the temp busts of up to 10-12 degrees in the Plains yesterday. Secondly, when you have a fresh canadian airmass w/ a 1038mb high sitting in the classic position - that HP isn't just going to vanish overnight. Cold , northeasterly ageostrophic flow should persist throughout the day allowing a 1-3" accumulation areawide, prior to a change to rain on the coast. NW of NYC in the mountains -- I've been saying a pretty good period of sleet/freezing rain before it end as some light rain later tonight.

Warm air is surging from the south and west - it has turned over in many spots already

Where? Turned over to what? It's below freezing down to Cape May and Wilmington DE.

I heard on TV that Cape May turned to freezing rain. I don't know if it's true.

There is even a NNE wind in the Carolina's!  where is the warm air surging???????

This cold air is holding on very strong. Even out here on the Island temps are still hovering just above 20. We have about an inch of snow.

I agree with Storm. Can't say the NWS busted as they called for an inch or two of snow with the warm front, then rains later. Many of us expected exactly what's happened. I had my doubts about the coastal plain getting any accumulations as I thought the dryness of the cold air would make it difficult to get enough precip at onset so I busted on that. However, in all other respects this is pretty much on target and Storm, the NWS, and many others have been saying this.

Western PA - raining in Pitt and Cleveland - up to 28 degrees in State Collge, PA with a SSW wind and 38 in Pitt, PA and 40 degrees in cape may,nj

If you would refer to the temps in PA and Cape May you will see what I am refering to - don't know why you would bring up NC when they are not even getting any precipation from this storm?

You do realize pitt and cleveland are west of the app. mountains!?  High pressure is draining south east of the moutains!  cape may is south of the artic front i beleive.

Do you realize that you will always criticize me no matter what I say - do you realize that when a storm moves west of NC that it drags warm air north - I did not say that we would turn over in the next 60 seconds but that this was moving north

soon as the snow stops, the $**t hits the fan.

I guess so is Philadelphia where the temp is up to 28 degrees and they have changed over to sleet

Temperatures have gone above freezing and even close to 40 in south Jersey. The winds have become onshore down there. This will happen up here later but I am glad we at least got an inch of overrunning snow.

Some spots in our area are going to have a prolonged icing event if enough precipitation gets in with temps below freezing

Summer's correct. The cold air damming is holding on east of the mountains for now but that milder air to the west is on its way here. Even this morning's snow is a result of the mild air coming in, first at the upper levels.

I am sure that you have said it now Robbs JJve snow will agree with this - he will post a disagreement with anything I post no matter what it is without even reading it

i do disagree.  i want to see where the coastal pops! 

summer makes sense alot, she just likes to incite a little bit, get u excited.

Summer likes to debate but he makes plenty of sense.  At the same time what's happening isn't anything we didn't expect.  Maybe we were a little surprised at how well the precip was able to penetrate the cold air but that's about it.

Yes, Summer is correct, it's warming up to our SW, but I really don't see the point intended there. We knew this was going to happen -- but very, very slowly over the next 12 hours.

yes but if you go back to summer's post's "WARMING ALREADY IN CAPE MAY"!
making it sound like everything is going over to rain asap! 

this is the stuff i am talking about.