Don't know if this has been mentioned/posted -- NOAA's 30 day outlook for December has the northeast with a better chance than even of having temps below normal (their way of saying cold).

even NOAA is backing off on the blowtorch...

its only dec. 2nd with some snow under our belts... with 2 more chances this week

gonna be a good month folks  8)

I didn't read it personally but others have posted on other boards that JB is now saying the cold in the east may last for the first 3 weeks of December.

It's about time they come around to reality.

In the words of Summer -- when NOAA calls for a below normal month, take it to the bank.  :laugh:

Cold is going to be frustrating if we deal with lake cutter after lake cutter. If it's that way I'd rather have JB's blowtorch.

Why Ice do you think that's going to become a trend around here this Dec and maybe longer?

ice mentioned something i think it was yesterday or the day before about lake cutters in la nina years

Yeah that's true, but the NAO looks like it's about to tank soon and that can only benefit us. Hopefully with that and the colder than normal temps we"ll get ourselves a nice sizable snowfall.

You need the cold with a neg nao this way you have upstream blocking. That pushes the storms south and they then can ride up the coast. If we had a neg nao with this storm we'd be getting 12"+ of snow. Without a neg nao we need a perfect set-up of arctic air. Otherwise you'l get lake cutter after lake cutter which is common in La Nina winters.  

i heard from another board that the nao is gonna really tank soon

"You need the cold with a neg nao this way you have upstream blocking. That pushes the storms south and they then can ride up the coast. If we had a neg nao with this storm we'd be getting 12"+ of snow. Without a neg nao we need a perfect set-up of arctic air. Otherwise you'l get lake cutter after lake cutter which is common in La Nina winters."      "Icehater"


That's what I was saying the NAO looks like she's going NEG and it looks like were gonna have some cold air so we might be in good shape.

Metsfan4life -- You have made it clear that you like the cold/want a snowstorm. Not need to re-post it 500 times. Do not respond to this post.

Thanks.

I will take this one week at a time but as far as I am concerned Dec week #1 will come in well below normal for most of the NE and JB's prediction is already in trouble - "historic warmth" watch his disciples try to spin this as he only said Jan-Feb "historic warmth" - not true, not true friends  re-read his winter post - if Dec. comes close to normal, JB is 1/3 wrong no matter what his disciples and his masters of spin try to frame the debate...

Ichater, i know i mentioned to you many times that in the winter of 1978-79 we had a similar set up, very cold, then lake cutters, followed by cold, was that winter a la nina also? just curious? thanks for your help in advance.

Three days into the month and he's already hedging. 

We love ya, JB! :biggrin:

Likely. But there was no SE ridge domination that year so it was storm after storm that actually cut up west of Chicago and the lakes. They weren't even lake cutters, most were great plains cutters. I do remember that we'd be dealing with 40mph wind gusts and cold air intruding as a storm was already riding NE near Des Moines or Omaha.  Areas in western Pa were already on SE winds while we were having the gusty northwesterlies at 6PM and they had only started. By 6am we were on SE winds and the warmp-up to rain was on its way. 36 hours later the whole thing repeated and it went on endlessly that winter. That was one of the most frustrating winters ever.

Tracks like this kill snow for places as far north as Buffalo!

So far this year we (Sussex County) has seen a decent pre winter so far.  Ahead of last year by a lot.  Im not looking at any long term outlooks.  I like to take a few days at a time.  Just going to put too much stress on some people.  :P

But tha area, could be Buffalo, could be Watertown, can still do well with lake effect after such a storm.

lee goldberg just said the 2nd half of december looks like we gonna warm up :ohmy:

0z gfs says warm ups here and there but then wants to build the ridge back in the pacific!!!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...0/fp0_384.shtml

NWS has a predicted high for 48 next Monday here.

I recall that 78/79 had a big snowstorm (12"+) in February.
I checked CP records and they had 20" in Feb. 79 with only 9" the remainder of the winter.

Just from the little I have seen and heard from local mets and the many posters on this board including our experts, there seems to be very little consensus on the remainder of this month... which is fine we take it one day at a time and see what happens...

It looks like that over this coming weekend we are still slightly below normal and then next week, at least at the start, we turn slightly above normal and this trend holds much of that week - if normal high temps in NYC are now supposed to be around 46, 47 degrees, it looks like next week on many days we are right near 50 degrees maybe a hair under this, cloud cover will largely determine how low we drop most nights

No one seems to be talking about a blow torch or an ice box through mid month and after this we lose a consensus - some want to move spring into the area while others are saying winter just gets cranked up - my own gut tells me that if we divide both extremes we end up somewhere close to normal -

Anything close to normal for the rest of the month means Dec. comes in below normal temp for most spots and is a sharp blow to those calling for blow torch winter - they will try to spin it and say no we were only talking about Jan and Feb but this is a spin, read their initial winter forecasts

Just my thoughts on a cold Wednesday morning in December