anybody have a handle on this system and what we may get from it

this thing doesnt know were it wants to go the 18z gfs just came out for it and is following the nams track now!

which means

freak
thanks for the info

I think he meant the nam is moving toward the GFS which means the clipper is more south and things don't llok all that good for us. But that's todays runs and given we are only talking about a clipper it's still too early.

thanks for the correction ice! you think it will switch again?

lol! 18z gfs monster storm
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...8/fp0_360.shtml

clipper is south on the 0z NAM. man, can we catch a break? wish we would get some snows out of this

I wouldnt worry about the clipper yet. 

i was just gonna post this,we got another day to track it

hopefully the models will shift north tomorow

Met's consensus is dusting to an inch. The high will be above freezing so it may be a car-topper event.

At this time of year, we'll take it. FD

Good point bro. I thought the old thread was stale. ::)

Well, 12z GFS today gives us at least a little more qpf in this area.  Nam gives us nothing.  We shall see.  I think however it will most likely be a trace to an inch at least in the city and north.  Southern jersey may get more. Just based on what the GFS is saying.  Most likely I will have gotten more snow out of these snow showers this morning then in this clipper.  We shall see. 

uhh!! the little storm thats cominh in after that looks better form me now!!! :ohmy:

which one for friday?

alot of people were happy about this clipper and look now,its going to our south  :mad:

we cant get it rite 1st storm to far north this one to far south!

In a prior post about this clipper Icehate had mentioned the possibility of it deepening once it reaches the coast and the possibility of it throwing back snow. 

Is this still a possibility?  Or at this point are we just hoping that it trends further north?

well the clipper on the nam is horrible for us,the gfs gives us little precip

18z gfs

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gfs is different then the nam

gfs had the precip rite at the begining of the last storm so lets see whats gonna happen thats a band of 1-2 id say maybe!

this clipper bombs out too far offshore,looks like south jersey is in the jackpot of this clipper

still looks decent to me atleast ill take it over the other runs. :happy:

yea me to,better then nothing like wut the nam gives us

Too bad that the models have the clipper's main precip axis to our south for now. High ratios of 20:1 or even 30:1 should produce some pretty high "fluff snow". JB's even forecasting a swath of 6" to 10" totals. Those numbers seem too high but if the GFS is to be believed, some 5" totals are very possible over extreme southern NJ and Delaware, although the NAM is much drier.

wow thats some high ratios

Robbbs,

JB is probably also thinking a sharper turn north with some amplification in the water near the coast. I've always thought, and still do think thats possible with this system.

Ice, 00z NAM is trending wetter.

There gonna have a nice little storm down there and nothing up here  :mad:

Robbbs,

The Nam and GFS have swapped tracks on this clipper. Originally it was the GFS that was too far south. At that time I thought the Nam was the more plausible situation because clippers don't usually go that far south in general and almost never this early in the season. Now it's vice versa and I think the GFS will be more accurate on the track.

Ice, I haven't exactly kept score but it seems to me that the GFS has done pretty well this season. The models are always tweaked and this doesn't seem like last year's GFS. Of course, a lot also depends on the type of synoptic event being forecast.

The DC contingency are in their glory over this one (at least for now).

They are,im skimming through other sites and they r all happy down there that they gonna see snow tomorrow

do you guys see ANYONE around the NYC area seeing an inch os snow out of this?

The gfs gives us little hope,nam doesnt

on the gfs,it trended north the clipper

kinda looks like it and bimbs the clipper a little faster!

i may be getting another inch :wub: hat would take me to 2.7inches for the year :biggrin:

u mean bombs lol,ill post the run

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00Z GFS taken verbatim is a South Jersey special with some intensification of the precip shield as the clipper hits the thermal gradient along the Mid atlantic coast. Not to shabby up towards central NJ either. Prints out between 0.10-0.25" of QPF; with 15:1 ratios (temps probably in the mid 20s), 1-3" of snow would be possible. Looks like a coating to an inch up to NYC as well per the GFS.

Interesting to note the GFS has more H5 ridging out ahead of the clipper, allowing the upper flow to orient itself more SW to NE rather than WSW to ENE as progged by the NAM. Amazing differences within 24 hours. Should be interesting to see which model wins again.

Good post Storm. GFS is showing an interesting possibility with a nice fallback to 1-3" of snow in our area if no intensification takes place. I'd like the Low about 50 miles further north as it would be better placed for potential intensification.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_p48_048l.gif

ice and storm do you guys think i have a shot at seeing an inch with these ratios?

Ice,

I'm a bit concerned about the NAM as it's higher resolution in the short-range tends to result in a superior forecast. Then again, this may be a time when the La Nina induced SE-ridge works to our advantage -- allowing the clipper to "turn the corner" and head NE once it reaches the Virginia Capes. I'd rather be in Cape May right now than Monmouth county, but we take what we can get. I'd like to see the ensembles and another run of the GFS before I buy into the further north track (I don't plan on staying up tonight though, LOL).

nams been a little off with the last system.  Id trust the gfs more.  even us in north jersey may squeeze out an inch

Agree. Clippers aren't worth it. I  usually expect nothing and if anything falls it's a bonus.

hey its dec 5 tomorrow so it will probably snow,it always does on the 5th anyway  :smile:

GFS a bit better than NAM but still pretty meager precip quantities here and even down to central NJ. High ratios though will help eek out more snow than usual but it would be nice if this were to trend further north. More watching tomorrow.

precip is moving ESE it looks like! this radar picks up the heavier bands of snow alot better then the other radars i usually use.

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