On 1010 wins this morning - major warm-up next week - this cold spell does not indicate that "winter will not be a warm one" -

Any thoughts on this - I did not think the warm up next week was a long one and I still think they are pushing a warm winter without too much basis in any concrete facts

Summer, I do not think we should believe everything that accuweather and NOAA tells us. After all, weren't we supposed to have an above average hurricane season
because of La Nina? They blew that forecast right out of the water! The bottom line is no forecast is accurate beyond 5 days. I think we should listen to people like stormchaser, robbs. They do not over hype and "over type". Bastardi and other mets make too many comparisons to past years. No year is exactly the same.

Why bother listen to these mets when you have a wealth of knowledge on this board.  Every met you listen too all have something different to say. I dont even listen to the mets anymore. I think the people on this board have a better record at the weather and are much more accurate.  Lets face it you cant predict weather that far in advance.  Take it a few days at a time.  Too many people stress over what it is going to do weeks from now, sit back and enjoy today.

I disagree with you here. They are pushing a warm winter with 3 solid pieces of fact and history:

1. Strong La nina's have all led to warm winters
2. There has been constant evidence of a strong SE ridge - which is consistent with La Nina's.
3. Strong La Nina's of the past have produced the coldest weather early in the season usually in a consistent 4-5 week period that can occur anytime from mid November to early January. That's why I was always hoping our winter cold would come in as late in December as possible.

Further evidence exists in the modelling of lake cutters that we have been seeing in LT global models and what we saw with the  weekend storm - which was a typical La nina storm.  It cut to the lakes despite a massive cold high in Quebec and canadian weather features that initially were a near perfect snowstorm set-up for us. Our hope for this winter is tied to getting a lasting blocking pattern in the Atlantic (like the 2-3 week brutal cold in Feb 1983 that ended with the massive blizzard), but that is not easy in a La Nina pattern and when it occurs it's during a reload of the warm pattern with the snow happening as the neg nao collapses. We can get lucky with a perfectly placed big snowstorm but in a La nina year it would likely be followed by a big warm-up. Believe me - I want it to be different and would love to "wish" the La Nina away.

Looks like a one-day warmup to me.  It looks like it's going to be about 50 on Tuesday, then back down into the high 30's and lower 40's.

I am thinking we should just collect money on this board and just buy a snow machine  :biggrin:

Then any natural snow we have would just be a bonus, cause this year doesnot look too good for snow lovers in the notheast  :sleep:

Even the GFS sees a strong SE ridge next week and it's gonna stick around for a while afterward. I wouldn't trust the GFS cold bias, cold air intrusions this far out in the pattern that is setting up next week. So I wouldn't buy into it so easily that the warm-up won't last. Also it has a warm look even after the GFS wants to cut down next weeks warm up. No evidence yet of Atlantic blocking on the horizon.

why bother at this point trying to pick apart every forecast a particular met says. stick to the folks on this board and you'll be fine.

Did not know I was just picking apart just commenting on a forecast - everyone comments about henry and JB never is an issue - why is it an issue when I comment on abrams?

In his blog/video on Accuweather.com he doesn't talk about a major warm-up next week. He thinks will moderate some to more normal temps for the next 10 days or so, then another cold shot and that the real warm-up occurs after that - just in time for Christmas I guess.

Summer - I agree with your point completely here. Abrams is a very well respected conventional Met and is always a good read.

If that's the case, I think this would be the 3rd straight warm Christmas.

I for one would not be happy with this...

I think with this said, we have to take it all slowly - how many times have we heard about pattern changes that never change - as I have said 6 million times as far as I am concerned JB is wrong if Dec. ends up anywhere close to normal for much of the USA

summer

Excellent point.  Time after time in the past two years, we've seen purported "pattern changes" get pushed back or taken off the board altogether.

True - but it's always the cold that gets delayed.

Just looked at the 12Z GFS. On a 1-10 scale this thing rates about a 1.5. Pattern goes from a clipper that should have a few folks here excited (but not me just yet) to a series of lake cutters, then to an east coast storm threat that is too east and likely never materializes and culminates with what looks to be a lasting map configuration that looks like we are headed into Memorial day rather than Christmas. Ugly!

I just thought about that cold fourth of July we had and how I said at that time that cold 4ths led to warm Christmasses. I wanted the opposite, heat on the 4th and icy cold at Christmas. I may end up 0-2 on that front. There's also a thread on Eastern about JB saying winter in the east ends real soon. If JB nails a warm winter he'll never let any of us ever forget it.

also henry is saying a warm up to  :biggrin:

That's what makes me skeptical.  Here we are on December 4th and he's talking about winter ending already.  The guy is just too damn extreme for my tastes. 

longe ranges dont have it warming up that much atleast on the gfs i havent seen the euro yet.

yesterday or the day before they had that storm coming from the gulf and going up the coast then hooked out NNE track and just put out like .75QPF for me.

You've got to adjust the GFS for its' cold bias. But whether it looks warm or not isn't relevant. The pattern is horrendous and the late run pattern looks like May, not December. Forget the temps.

yea thats true but in a day ot two they will probably change it up again!

There's a big difference betweem tracking a storm on the GFS and tracking a pattern on the GFS. Storms get displaced very easiy. Patterns don't. We're in a bad global pattern (La Nina) and when the models start to signal the signature type of weather you see in that global model you have to take it seriously. Trust me I'm not happy about it but it is what it is. I certainly hope the GFS is wrong but the Euro was also signalling warm weather ahead the last time I checked it.

Heck I'll take a warm up and have one major storm per the months of Jan, Feb and March...still bettor then last year, and as a kicker we save on heat this year...3 majors.

I'd sign up for a warm 7 weeks if we could repeat the Feb 1983 storm with lightning and all. That was the most amazing lightning I've seen in a winter storm and it went on for hours.

I am sure everyone rembs BLIZZARD of Feb 2006.....

before that storm.>>> as I recall it WAS A TERRIBLE winter!!

everyone laughed at first when the "JMA" model GAVE NYC A BLIZZARD!!

SOOoo before everyone writes off this year let it begin 1st!!

Icehater--

Can you tell how long the warm pattern will hold?  Are there any signs of a change in the pattern after it goes to warm?

Thanks!

What are you seeing that would make you say that???  So far I've not heard anything that would make me think that this clipper is going to be anything significant.

Ugh, that was an atrocious winter.  I think I got about 5 inches on 12/9 and then we had the big one on 2/11.  The rest of that season was beyond pathetic.

Folks around here seem to get excited about one inch of snow. So this will excite them:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_036l.gif

Hey, if JB's right about this winter, we should be grateful for every inch we get, lol.

Wow. Just wow.

That's because it's all we seem to get these days  :mad:

I am trying to figure out what you are replying to  ???

Here's why:

1)First of all, temperatures are barely cracking freezing today (20 below normal) with a very rare occurrence -- snow squalls to the coast, yet some folks are complaining about a 300 hour GFS progg that is way off the mark in my opinion -- has little support from its ensembles and the Euro.


2) Secondly, we have a couple light snow chances this weeks with way below normal temps -- can people just enjoy the weather? Or do we always need to be stressed about the future? I'm all for pattern discussion - but honestly the "winter cancel", "JB's going to verify", "winters over next week" is the stuff that's unneccesary. Please post some scientific backing if you support JB.

3) With regards to the Euro -- it depicts a confluence zone along the northern periphery of the SE-ridge next week -- promoting snow/ice opportunities as low-level cold air is readily available to our north. Check the Canadian ensembles -- 90% of Canada is near/slightly below in temperature -- that same airmass into the Northeast is solidly below average (5F or more). 12z Euro actually shows a pretty chilly week into mid December with some more wintry mix chances -- not great nor'easter pattern, but we've got to take what we can get in a strong la nina.

Finally - this is just my opinion - but I like to go through the winter enjoying any type of weather that comes our way. Who cares if it doesn't snow a lot - there are more important things in life and we're lucky to be alive to experience the various wx patterns. That's how I look at. The weather will do what it wants regardless of our hopes, forecasts, expectations, etc.

With all that said I really don't see the problem with December. Pattern looks fine to me for cold air into the Northeast and occasional wintry precip.

Summer,

You are correct - they're pushing a warm winter without much scientific evidence IMO.

Secondly - why would you ever listen to 1010 wins for weather. They had me at 1-3" of snow only 12 hours prior to the 19-20" blizzard of January 2005. Last time I tuned into that station.

great post storm

Zero evidence to support what they are saying except if you say that it has been warm the past 30 years and this is where we hedge my bets - I would actually respect someone who said this - Storm you used this in your winter write up

I listen to 1010 right after my daily dose of Craig Allen - just a habit

Its December 4th and I have seen snow going thru the Hudson Valley a few weeks ago and saw snow going thru Pennsylvania just before Thanksgiving. I have seen snow at my house (LOng Island) 3 times in the past few days. I do not know what the future brings but so far the winter is off to a good start.

its off to a very good start,saw snow last week,on sunday,yesterday,today in nyc, this time last year it was very warm

You're dead-on, Storm.  No matter what, we'll always have something interesting to talk about with the weather.  You can't control it, so you might as well enjoy what does come.

i didint even hit freezing today i had snow in the early AM that left a coating and its still on the ground im down to 28 already and grounds frozen!

wow my high was around 34 today

even henry said winter is not over yet  :biggrin:

Storm,

No one's creditting JB with anything at this point. My comment was that if he verifies on a warm winter he'll never let anyone forget it. That comment was based on his already gloating announcement about winter cancel.

I don't like the upcoming set-up at all. We almost never do well in zonal patterns like the one that is setting up and they usually trend warmer afterwards. Could be decent for southern New England as they have a good chance to be on the cold enough side of the over-running. For us I think a lot of 45-50 weather with some rain chances and eventually the SE ridge wins out. 

Ice,

I generally agree with you next week, near/slightly below normal, with snow/ice threats for New England (our area may be borderline) - but I think it's simply a reload for a return to troughiness in the East after December 15th. We're going to be building up some serious negative departures over the next several days, therefore I'd expect some temperature moderation (pattern reloads are normal even in a great winter). GFS ensembles want to take the AO and finally the NAO negative after Dec 10th-15, but honestly I'll believe it when I see it at this point. The NAO forecasts per the GFS have been abysmal at best this year -- keeps trying to develop a -NAO block in the Day 10-15 range but it hasn't happened yet.

Do I think it'll happen - yes. Usually even in mod/strong ninas, especially years comparable to this one (1970-71, 1955-56) feature a 2-4 week period of blockiness. So in reality - this may work out in our favor. Although we have colder than normal temps now -- the real good storm chances could begin post December 15th and last through early January. If that occurs - it's prime time as far as I'm concerned. As you do, I love snow on the ground with low sun angles. We'll see if it evolves that way, but I still think a 2-4 week period of -NAO is likely this winter.

Take it to the bank, Henry said it

So far from about Nov. 1st on, the weather has been basically what i expect it to be for northwest nj.  Now i understand it doesn't always work out that way but if you were to ask me what is normal for where i am, it would be pretty much exactly the way it's played out over that time.  You're not going to get snow that will stick around until at least mid-december anyway so there's no use in harping on the fact.  This isn't the Adirondacks.  Now if you live in a coastal area around here you wouldn't expect the snow to ever last for a prolonged period anyway, though i do understand it happens ocassionally.  But those early and late snows you get are always going to be a significant part of your average, again this isn't the Adirondacks.  I wouldn't want to have to rely on a once every 3 or 4 year coastal in a perfect setup to help me make up for a significant part of my average.  That would drive me NUTS!