Considering we are not in the best of patterns for snow (storms going to our west) we are making out pretty good. It is only December 5 and numerous snows have hit some areas of the tri-state. If it was later January it would be frustrating because the snows have been anemic but for early December it's not bad. One thing that does concern me is the prolonged period of averageing below normal with our temps. If December comes in below normal  that makes 2 months in a row.  That tells me January and or February have a better chance of being mild.  So I hope we are not wasting our cold on Lake Cutters only to have the heart of winter be mild.

Very good post. Unfortunately, your description is what I forecasted in my winter outlook. December being the coldest/snowiest month followed by a slightly warmer than normal Jan and solidly warmer than normal February. However, we can still get snows through that period as there will be ups & downs.

A piece of good news is the La Nina continues to weaken; down to -1.2 in region 3.4 per the last update. This would classify it as a low-end moderate nina. Benefits: Pacific jet and SE-ridge not as overwhelming the next three months -- more arctic intrusions and also better chance of snows further south (not only Northern new england).

Another piece of good news is we're beginning to see some warming in the polar regions which usually responds with a -AO/NAO cycle a couple weeks later. That would put as at Dec 15th and beyond for a possible wintry period.

Overall it hasn't been a bad start to the MET winter - big time cold for this time of year and some areas have 6-12" of snow in the books already (namely NW sections).

It ain't over till its over (and I don't think it is - sorry JB).

Edit: Just remembered JB was in agreement w/ the CFS on a January peak as a STRONG NINA. Therefore he's already in the busting stage IMO - thus the weakening nina will pay dividends in the form of a colder/snowier pattern than JB's expecting.

Great write-up STORM - this winter so far has been great as compared with the last one and JB is getting close to busting for 1/3 of his forecast

And of course the 15th is the day I fly to Florida for a week!  I go away as the NAO tanks.  So I bet I miss out on a snowstorm  :P  Still maybe the best will hold on until after the 23rd and I'll get to see a White Christmas.  Which would be my first  :wub:

Storm,

I read a post by DT yesterday that said it would be important to see the Enso reading in about 2 weeks. His concern was that this may be an aberration. On the other hand he effectively said that if the weakening continued a few more weeks it was likely real and we'd see its' effects in January. Interestingly DT has yet to issue a winter forecast to the general public. i almost got the feeling he was about to and then held back when he saw this data. JB of course stared the data down and declared winter in the east was done which is still a mindboggling stupid thing to do at such an early stage.

In the meantime the pattern in the long range GFS looks a whole lot better than 24 hours ago.

Here's that DT thread:

http://www.stormvista.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=3210

Ice -- believe it or not, JB has actually not issued his winter outlook yet. He issued a preliminary one back in October as he usually does and indicated his actual outlook would be out at the end of November. He later stated that it would be out in December. It's pretty incredible that as of today, 12/5, it's not yet released. His recent posts have not backed away from his blowtorch winter thoughts of October, although he has stated that the December cold may last for the first three weeks of the month (which pretty much blows the month for him). Don't know what he's waiting for if he's not backing off in his daily narratives. Pretty odd.

Robbbs,

By declaring winter over, maybe he thinks one is not needed.

Seriously I think the weakening of La Nina may be scaring him. DT does make a great point that if the three meteorolical variables noted in his post in the thread I linked hold in than it's likely the blowtorch winter as advertised. But if any one of them breaks from the pack all bets are off. JB obviously is banking on a La Nina that peaks much later than normal and/or holds strong with only a slow eriosion over time. If either of those things happens a more wintry pattern can only get going for us when it's too late to matter. My old Dutch colleagues term of "mustard after the meal" comes right to mind if that happens. My feeling is that JB saw the global models that indicated a warm pattern in the second half of the month get re-affirmed in yesterday's GFS runs and couldn't keep his mouth shut about his accuracy on a Jan/Feb winter cancel. He does have a well known "patience" problem.

Agreed with everything said in this thread. IMO many folks will be surprised at how well the Northeast does snowfall-wise. I still think we're near normal, which is 40"+ for northwestern areas, with northern new england above normal.

BTW -- Canada is very cold right now unlike last year; therefore I think temps are overestimated for the next 7 days overall. Any low-level arctic intrusion, and MOS numbers may bust by several degrees as we saw with the last event.

Temp anomalies - note all of Canada is cold. Whenever that SE-ridge gets beaten back, numbers are in for a beating for the Northeast:

[img width=600 height=464]http://i7.tinypic.com/82b2e6a.gif[/img]

yea but when is that gonna happen? thats the key

Great write-up's everyone - not only is Canada cold but Fargo,ND has 13 inches of snow on the ground - much different than last year - friends of mine who live in that neck of the woods say it is the coldest period they can remember in a few winters (this early)

Summer,

Agreed and this is an important piece of the puzzle. The above normal snow cover in Canada during November aided in sustaining those negative anomalies, and could also mechanically induce a block over the polar regions later this month.

Interesting -- last winter we needed a meridional pattern (highly amplified troughs) to deliver the cold into the Northeast as Canada was blowtorching. However -- right now -- all we need is a little dip in the jet stream and temperatures can be solidly below normal across the Northeast. Hence why La Nina winters should not be labeled as a lock on warmth for the northern tier. Often times ninas can be quite interesting with a favorable pacific and polar pattern. The PNA should head positive by D7 and the Euro is actually depicting a decent Atlantic block by the D7-10 period (Dec 13-15th). Yes, it's out in time, but it's good to see it shown on data.

Side note: Unfortunately my computer crashed last night -- so I've lost all my weather data since January. Don't know what my departure is for December right now, but I'd imagine we're at least -4/-5. Jeez, next time I'll remember to back up the data on a CD. Whole year's worth is gone - wasn't even an old computer.

great write up guys, we are forgetting the most important reason why we might have better winter then last year. JB THINKS ITS GOING TO BE WARMER THEN NORMAL. I only wish he can think this way every winter.  :P

I have noticed the upper mid west has had some cold temps so far this season. Minnesota has had numerous nights close to or below zero. Tonight may be the coldest so far with temps in many locations already 15-20  below zero.

yea im putting in some places on noaa to see the temps out there in the midwest, st paul minnesota is at 2 degrees, fargo is at -6,international falls is at -7,chicago is at 11,bismarck is at  17 and marquette is at 5

Storm,

Learned that lesson the hard way also. For 50-100 bucks get an external hard drive.

Storm,

Central Park to date for Dec is -8 degrees

Also as a side note - I had forgotten this fact but last Nov (06) was almost 5 degrees warmer than normal in NYC and then Dec and Jan 07 were both almost 6 degrees above normal - what a lousy three months - In many ways this starts to discredit those who have called for a blow torch this winter - the last 6 weeks have been soldily slightly below to well normal and despite all the spin doctors there is zero evidence that Dec is going to turn well above normal and on Jan 1 2008 we well may be looking at a Dec # that is slightly below to well below normal for many parts of the USA East of the Mississippi

You guys look at temp and I look at my beer sale at my business. Its down slightly because its colder this year then last. So, that how i come up with if its colder this year or last year.. :laugh:

LOL - Good point cold is in the eye of the beverage holder - what about hot chocolate sales?

Is hell coming with it! ;) :biggrin: 
  Sorry I had too! Again, You guys make such a great contribution to this board with your knowledge and easy to read write ups, its great. (all of you guys Ice, storm, Robbs, Sat, RG and others) Thanks

Agreed.  You guys rock!

Hot coffee,choc and smokes are off the roof...i feel bad for my customers for gas pricing thou. Its so freaking high but its not us its the gas companies on the back end of it, who makes the money.

Yes.  Thank you to all who post on this board who contribute knowledgable, honest, factual posts!!!!

I for one just ask questions and may give an opinion or two.  I love weather, have taken a class or two in college and am learning from what I read here but for the most part don't add much value.

Great job!!!!!

Lol, same here.  I try to pick things up as I read along.  I understand the basic terminology but I don't know if I could have an in-depth conversation.