Two different temp. Ideas from them for early next week for me and 3 miles east (upton) 9 degrees difference for Mondays high



Mt Holly-

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 41. West wind between 7 and 13 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.

Sunday: A chance of snow before 11am, then a chance of rain and snow between 11am and noon, then a chance of rain after noon. Cloudy, with a high near[glow=red,2,300] 41. [/glow] Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow or rain. Cloudy, with a low around [glow=red,2,300]30.[/glow] Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday: A chance of snow or rain. Cloudy, with a high near [glow=red,2,300]43.[/glow] Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around [glow=red,2,300]26[/glow].

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow or rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41.

Upton---
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around[glow=red,2,300] 22. [/glow]

Sunday: A chance of snow and freezing rain before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near [glow=red,2,300]35[/glow]. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow or freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around [glow=red,2,300]22[/glow]. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday: A chance of snow or rain. Cloudy, with a high near [glow=red,2,300]34[/glow]. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: A chance of snow or freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around [glow=red,2,300]22[/glow]. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: A chance of snow or rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

No joking around if there was ever 1 time when i don't want any snow it's this monday night.  I am taking a final that will seriously determine the rest of my life.  This is probably the only time in my life where i'll be rooting for rain over snow and i'm dead serious.

Satellite - the founding member of the "rain for one night crowd"  :biggrin:

Good luck with the final! But I disagree with the part of it seriously determining the rest of your life. (although I know what you mean) If you have your health you have everything! :biggrin:

Thanks.  You're right about.  Let's put it this way - it will determine what i am doing for the rest of my life, career-wise and whether or not i spent the last 7 years in grad school for nothing!

Summer - i can be a heat-mizer for 24 hours.  That's probably about my limit though  ;)

Good luck.  I'm sure you'll do just fine.

Just out of curiosity...there's no way to re-schedule if the test is cancelled?

Thanks.  I would say the only way it would be cancelled is if there was a significant snowstorm in newark (6+).  You show up or it's a big INC. '

That is crazy the difference between mt. holly and upton though.  It's ususual for them to be that far apart.

Hmm...they must be basing their forecasts on model runs that are in two different camps right now. 

Yeah, it's not like elementary school where you were dismissed if three flakes fell, lol.  In college or at work, you're basically expected to be there unless there's a State of Emergency.  I'll never forget the 12/5/2002 storm.  I was supposed to have a Marketing final that day, so I schleped to school at the height of the snowfall.  It turns out that the professor left a note on the door of the classroom, saying that the final was cancelled and rescheduled for the following Tuesday.

Good luck Sat!

Sat, one test never determines the rest of your life.  Lab is right...first you need your health, then being able to enjoy your self and your family.  Beyond that you will find that folks that are determined to do well and work hard come out ahead. 

Just the fact that you were determined enough to stay in Grad school for 7 years tells me enough about your desire to succeed to be pretty confident in saying you will. 

Good luck!!  (and don't put so much pressure on yourself!)

Both will be using the GFS at this point but one is going more verbatim GFS and the other is thinking the cold will sink further south than the GFS shows. This is a zonal cold pattern and often temps can differ widely over small amount of miles given the strength of widespread very cold air in Canada. So any forecaster that thinks the cold will expand further south than models show can easily be 10-15 degrees colder than a forecaster that uses the GFS verbatim.

Thanks for the explanation.  Interesting stuff.

This is a heavyweight championship fight between the SE ridge (very warm) and Canadian high (very cold). There can't be a lot of confidence in any forecast unless you are pretty far north (above Boston) or pretty far south (below DC).

So the one thing you can take to the bank is you can't take anything to the bank wrt this winter.  All cards are still very much on the table whatever JB might say.  And you can take THAT to the bank!  ;)

BTW - the one thing I don't buy into in our area, including NW NJ is the threat of snow. Ice can happen, sleet is a lesser possibility and snow is a much lesser possibility.

Once again, the synoptics for the next 5 days are not lined up in our favor as we're forecast to be on the south side of a pesistent boundary line with waves running just to our west or north. Would be difficult to get much frozen precip in such a scenario, although sleet or freezing rain is possible inland. Hard to see snow like that.

That would mean less vacation days LOL.  I can say that since he is my brother :P
Good luck, you can always move in with my chickens.

I woundnt do that to the chickens! ;)

upton says the exact opposite.  I just read there discussion and seem to be going with ecmwf with front being to our south meaning more of a snow scenerio.  though gfs doesnt agree

edit, just read mt holly and they say the exact opposite in reguards to the ecmwf.  How to hell can one of them read the model wrong.  I didnt see the ecmwf but from looking at the gfs I will side with mt holly

As long as i can teach the chickens how to play fantasy football and listen to dave matthews i'll be just fine  :laugh:

The synoptic scale set-up through Wednesday is screaming ice potential with powerful arctic highs parked near Quebec and waves of low pressure running W-E along a baroclinic zone -- positioned approximately from Nebraska to New Jersey. Almost reminiscent of a January 1993-94 type set-up as we have a +NAO, but the favorable pacific pattern (-EPO/+PNA) is allowing the extreme negative anomalies in Canada to be transferred further south. Was just going to make a new thread on this but I'll post it here.

I'm getting cautiously optimistic about the pattern evolution next week as the SE-ridge is gradually beaten down by Thursday-Friday, thereby raising heights in the Atlantic and turning the NAO negative around the 15-16th. Nearly unanimous ensemble support for this -- in tandem with a neg PNA and neg EPO -- could result in a pretty cold pattern from the Plains eastward.

First things first though -- interesting scenario through about Wednesday. We have the E-E rule in effect right now -- the Euro and ETA are in agreement (the ETA is now called the NAM). This usually meant a "take it to the bank" type situation - and I believe we'll begin to see the GFS trend towards the NAM and EURO very soon.

As a preface -- MOS numbers busted too high on temps this afternoon, and that's only 6-12hrs in advance. That cold air means business in southern Canada.

Here's the EURO valid Tuesday -- at first glance one would think -- heights above 560dm, must be warm weather in the Northeast. But notice the 1030mb high locked in place over Maine. That indicates while mid/upper levels will be warm, surface temperatures will NOT be.

[img width=600 height=480]http://i5.tinypic.com/6o5bygj.gif[/img]

The NAM for early next week has a similar depiction -- cold highs pressing across the lakes into the northeast with the -10c isotherm at 850mb down into the NW Burbs if NYC. Doesn't look like a warm map to me, and this is at 850mb (5,000ft):

[img width=600 height=450]http://i1.tinypic.com/6u75pqw.gif[/img]

By the end of next week the Euro has a winter storm pressing into the cold high--beating down the SE ridge:

[img width=600 height=380]http://i6.tinypic.com/6z6dctg.gif[/img]

Didn't want to start another thread for the 18z gfs- so I'll post this here
The bottom R shows accumulated Ice over 120hrs. Looks like 1/2 here in NW NJ plus ice pellets






[img width=600 height=450]http://coolwx.com/ptype/gifs/ne.gfsacctype18-43.gif[/img]

00z NAM pretty impressive with strong 1030+mb high over northern new england. Looks like some light sleet/freezing rain Monday -- the bigger ZR event could be coming Tuesday or Wednesday for northern areas. When you've got a high this close  - low level temps almost guaranteed to be colder than progged IMO.

[img width=600 height=450]http://i3.tinypic.com/6p5i87r.gif[/img]

well i see storm u just posted and i read it it looks liek there will be a CAD nicely and should start us all off as a mix of some sort im hoping! also have you seen how they lost the 192HR storm? i just cant see how they lose that storm it was like a perfect setup! you think we will see it pop back?

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_KLGA.txt


12z soundings!

Snowfreak, I wouldn't worry about those threats beyond Day 7 - they will pop on and off the maps like a jack-in-the-box. I'm more concerned with the wintry mix potential early/mid next week at this time. However, the pattern is improving late next week with a (hopefully) negative NAO per guidance.

i know you probably are sick of this but i cant even answer my question lol do you think i will see a prolonged period of ice were i am?

Honestly it's too early to say. Right now it looks like rain for the coast/NYC but I can easily see a trend colder over the next 48 hours.

wich i hope would give me something! they are really blowing when it comes to temp and are busting BAD at that!

I though it was going to be in the 40s and 50s next week according to Upton? Now it's going to be in the mid 30s to right around 40.

yup! models dont know what they wanna do