The storm that is currently BATTERING California with several inches of rain and snow that is being measured in feet, will pull away from the western coast over the rockies over the next 24 hours.. Most models show the storm doing this fairy quickly and weakening as it pulls in the southern central plains.. The low develops in the plains as most do and takes an almost direct NE track.. straight through the ohio valley, into central PA and eventually somewhere between NYC and Poughkeepsie before exiting the New England Coast on wednesday. Not before a widespread area of snow/rain/ice/sleet is effected. On the southern fringe of the storm ,especially in florida with the trailing cold front there will be severe weather found between tuesday and wednesday.. The northern side of the storm is the tricky part and this is where the track and strength of the storm come in. Most models do not depict the monster storm that they did last week coming thruogh the midwest, but they do bring a pretty modest storm through the heart of the country. models are all over the place, but for being this far out they are in pretty good agreement.. even the NAM and GFS which usually differ greatly have a pretty similar track for this storm (with the NAM being the warmer of the two) For the immediate tristate area, snow will overspread the region after midnight into tuesday morning before quickly transitioning to ice from SE to NW (to plain rain on the coast) The exact depth of the cold air that will be in place to start this far out is very hard to determine and models always have a hard time, so for me to say how long it will snow/rain/ice would be a total guess out of my @$$. Seasonal trends are to underestimate the cold air, like last storm, so I will say that there are a few solid hours of snow/sleet before any transition. The more snow obviously the further N+W you go

Now for the problems with this storm and why I think it will not snow (a lot at least

1) There will be NO true arctic high like the tristate area had with yesterdays storm (which left almost a FOOT in my hometown in rockland - happy for them)

2) The storm will come after the area has experienced a warm up and will have to depend on the track and timing of the snowfall. A southern track at night would be the best bet of course, but we all know how banking on that turns out

3) +NAO!! there will be no blocking pattern downstream and nothing to keep any cold air in place from eroding away

4) This storm is dependent on track and intensity. Any storm tracking west of NYC spells trouble and snow for the interior.


Looking at the latest NAM/WRF soundings for me up here (at school in Buffalo), they show 8.4 inches of snow and as it is the warmest of all models, i'd say that there is a 40-50% chance of a moderate-significant snowfall up here. The UKMET is still trying to hint at the possibility of the storm ending up off of the NJ coast but I just do not see that happening in this case. There is overwhelming agreement between the ECMWF, GFS, NAM, GGEM, RGEM for an all, if not mostly snow event for places North of the NY/PA border with the best dynamics. Most models dump between .5- 1" of qpf on the area and with marginal cold air at best ratios would not be all that great. So i'd say these areas see 3+ to be on the more conservative side for now..

Again, there is plenty of room for change but this storm is really only 48 hours away from developing in the ohio valley.. So i'd have to say that the models have a pretty good idea of the general location adn intensity of the storm center. Time for things to wiggle either way over the next model runs but this thing looks like snow for the interior, snow -> ice/rain for the hudson valley and snow to sleet to rain for the coastal plain.. I will give an update on my thoughts and initial amounts over the next few days as the situation evolves and the models get a better handle on things. The storm is moving onto the Western Coast now, which is when models start to get an idea of how things are going to play out. Open to criticism by anybody, love to hear others and learn those things I do not know myself

models trending wetter and wetter.. will increase to 70% chance of a significant snowfall from the upper midwest/ohio valley into the eastern great lakes into western new england

and this is pinned for what reason?

because its a full explination of someones opinion on an upcoming storm, which no one has done or bothered to because its not going to snow in the tri-state. BTW, 12z NAM has printed out accumulations.. basically showing the sweetspots so to speak

Jason - well-written post. Looks good for the interior Northeast, including you in KBUF, as both the 850mb/sfc low tracks should be south of NY State. I believe the UKMET is up to it's usual SE/cold bias games with a favorable path for snow in the I-95 corridor -- don't buy it. Euro/GFS couplet more in line with reality atm -- lingering stale cold high pressure + orientation of the upper flow argue for a W to E tracking storm -- probably IL-OH-PA, then intensifying rapidly into New England.

However, don't see much if any relevance for the NYC metro area. Maybe some brief FZRN to start but low-level temps surge rapidly on increasing SLY winds of 25-30kts.

Next real winter wx chance for the immediate NYC metro may be next weekend or into March -- I've detailed my thoughts on that in yesterday's thread here:

http://www.nycmetroweather.com/forums/inde...0&start=100

none of us give a rats *** about Buffalo, we have forum in here called US weather section, go post in there about Buffalo

Rgwp, please SHUT UP. This is not only for buffalo you clown it was a complete storm discussion.. Most of it actaully was for you guys, so please do me and everyone a favor and keep your mouth shut so every thread is not filled with you trolling and *****ing aobut my posts and let everyone carry on with their weatehr discussions.. thanks

dont worry dude , if your posts about buffalo keep getting pinned you wont need to worry about me,

If I wanted to make a thread about Buffalo's weather and this storm i'd be sitting here predicting what will only happen here.. I did have a complete discussion on the tristate and the transitioning of precip with the storm track.. which is basically all i can say? its basically a no-go storm for you I posted things about the tristate well since its a nycmetro board and i am from there as well.. I may be up here but im interested in the weather at home as well.. you have issues

Sorry, but i kinda agree here.

Looks good for up in NE VT, hopefully will keep the ski conditions fresh for when I head back up next weekend!

I don't understand why this is pinned here either. Buffalo is not NYC Metro - it's US weather. The discussion, which is well done, has no relevance here. Why can't this be pinned in the discussion thread it belongs in - US weather discussion.

Direct quote about our area - "its basically a no-go storm for you"

That says it all and it's why it belongs in the same section as a storm written about Chicago or Denver.

yah really, no one cares at all about whats going on in buffalo

maybe you dont in the snain storm center but i do, sorry.

jason

you made your point ( good ones ) just put any discussions about buffalo in the us section. lets stop the madness !

NAM WRF

StnID: kbuf Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO

Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF
================================================================================
============================
080225/0100Z 1 23005KT 23.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/0200Z 2 22005KT 23.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/0300Z 3 22006KT 22.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/0400Z 4 22006KT 21.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/0500Z 5 22006KT 21.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/0600Z 6 22007KT 21.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080225/0700Z 7 22007KT 21.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/0800Z 8 22008KT 21.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/0900Z 9 23009KT 20.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/1000Z 10 22008KT 20.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/1100Z 11 22008KT 20.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/1200Z 12 22008KT 20.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080225/1300Z 13 22009KT 23.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/1400Z 14 23010KT 25.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/1500Z 15 23010KT 28.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/1600Z 16 23010KT 30.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/1700Z 17 23011KT 31.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/1800Z 18 23011KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080225/1900Z 19 24012KT 32.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/2000Z 20 23012KT 32.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/2100Z 21 23010KT 32.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/2200Z 22 23010KT 31.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/2300Z 23 23007KT 28.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080226/0000Z 24 22006KT 27.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080226/0100Z 25 21005KT 27.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080226/0200Z 26 20005KT 27.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080226/0300Z 27 20005KT 27.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080226/0400Z 28 20005KT 29.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080226/0500Z 29 21005KT 29.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080226/0600Z 30 20006KT 30.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080226/0700Z 31 21005KT 30.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080226/0800Z 32 22004KT 30.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080226/0900Z 33 20003KT 29.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080226/1000Z 34 19003KT 29.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080226/1100Z 35 VRB02KT 29.7F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080226/1200Z 36 08004KT 29.7F SNOW 10:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 10:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080226/1300Z 37 08005KT 31.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080226/1400Z 38 07006KT 32.4F SNOW 15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02
080226/1500Z 39 08007KT 33.1F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03
080226/1600Z 40 07010KT 34.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03
080226/1700Z 41 06011KT 34.5F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03
080226/1800Z 42 06012KT 34.2F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 3:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080226/1900Z 43 05015KT 32.5F SNOW 14:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 9:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16
080226/2000Z 44 05015KT 31.8F SNOW 14:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.118 11:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28
080226/2100Z 45 05013KT 31.5F SNOW 8:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.157 10:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44
080226/2200Z 46 04013KT 31.3F SNOW 10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063 10:1| 5.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.50
080226/2300Z 47 04013KT 30.9F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 10:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55
080227/0000Z 48 03013KT 30.7F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 10:1| 5.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.57
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080227/0100Z 49 02014KT 30.2F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 10:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59
080227/0200Z 50 01014KT 29.8F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 10:1| 5.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.61
080227/0300Z 51 36015KT 29.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 10:1| 6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.63
080227/0400Z 52 35016KT 28.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 10:1| 6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65
080227/0500Z 53 35017KT 26.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 10:1| 6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67
080227/0600Z 54 34018KT 24.8F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 10:1| 6.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.70
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080227/0700Z 55 34017KT 22.3F SNOW 16:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 10:1| 7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72
080227/0800Z 56 33017KT 20.3F SNOW 18:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 10:1| 7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73
080227/0900Z 57 33017KT 18.7F SNOW 23:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 10:1| 7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75
080227/1000Z 58 32016KT 17.2F SNOW 25:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 11:1| 8.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77
080227/1100Z 59 32016KT 15.6F SNOW 29:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 11:1| 8.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79
080227/1200Z 60 32015KT 14.2F SNOW 27:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 11:1| 9.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080227/1300Z 61 32015KT 13.8F SNOW 22:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 12:1| 9.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83
080227/1400Z 62 32016KT 13.6F SNOW 19:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 12:1| 10.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.85
080227/1500Z 63 31016KT 13.1F SNOW 19:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 12:1| 10.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.86
080227/1600Z 64 31016KT 12.7F SNOW 18:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 12:1| 10.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.87
080227/1700Z 65 31015KT 12.7F SNOW 17:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 12:1| 10.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.88
080227/1800Z 66 30015KT 13.1F SNOW 18:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 12:1| 10.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.89
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080227/1900Z 67 30015KT 13.5F SNOW 20:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 12:1| 11.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.90
080227/2000Z 68 30015KT 13.6F SNOW 21:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 12:1| 11.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.91
080227/2100Z 69 30015KT 13.1F SNOW 21:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 12:1| 11.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.92
080227/2200Z 70 30015KT 12.4F SNOW 22:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 12:1| 11.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.92
080227/2300Z 71 29014KT 11.3F SNOW 24:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 13:1| 11.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.93
080228/0000Z 72 29014KT 10.6F SNOW 27:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 13:1| 11.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.93
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080228/0100Z 73 29014KT 9.9F SNOW 26:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 13:1| 11.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.93
080228/0200Z 74 29013KT 9.3F SNOW 26:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 13:1| 11.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.94
080228/0300Z 75 29013KT 9.1F SNOW 25:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 13:1| 12.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.94
080228/0400Z 76 28012KT 9.0F SNOW 26:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080228/0500Z 77 28011KT 8.8F SNOW 26:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 26:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080228/0600Z 78 28011KT 8.6F SNOW 27:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 26:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080228/0700Z 79 28011KT 8.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 26:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01
080228/0800Z 80 28011KT 7.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 26:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01
080228/0900Z 81 28010KT 6.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 26:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01
080228/1000Z 82 27010KT 6.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 26:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01
080228/1100Z 83 27010KT 5.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080228/1200Z 84 27009KT 4.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
================================================================================
============================

RUC

StnID: kbuf Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO

Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF
================================================================================
============================
080225/0600Z 1 21005KT 20.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/0700Z 2 23007KT 21.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/0800Z 3 24007KT 24.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/0900Z 4 23007KT 25.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/1000Z 5 23007KT 26.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/1100Z 6 23007KT 26.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080225/1200Z 7 23008KT 25.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/1300Z 8 23008KT 26.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/1400Z 9 23009KT 29.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
================================================================================
============================

GFS3

StnID: kbuf Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO

Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF
================================================================================
============================
080225/0300Z 3 22008KT 24.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/0600Z 6 23007KT 24.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/0900Z 9 23007KT 24.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/1200Z 12 23008KT 24.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080225/1500Z 15 24009KT 29.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/1800Z 18 24011KT 33.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080225/2100Z 21 25010KT 33.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080226/0000Z 24 22005KT 28.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080226/0300Z 27 21007KT 29.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00
080226/0600Z 30 19006KT 30.7F SNOW 17:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 17:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01
080226/0900Z 33 16004KT 30.2F SNOW 10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.079 11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09
080226/1200Z 36 09004KT 30.6F SNOW 13:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 11:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080226/1500Z 39 06008KT 32.0F SNOW 17:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 13:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21
080226/1800Z 42 05010KT 32.0F SNOW 14:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.110 13:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.32
080226/2100Z 45 03011KT 31.8F SNOW 14:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114 14:1| 6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44
080227/0000Z 48 01014KT 30.7F SNOW 13:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.079 14:1| 7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080227/0300Z 51 36015KT 27.1F SNOW 10:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126 13:1| 8.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.64
080227/0600Z 54 34015KT 21.7F SNOW 16:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071 13:1| 9.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.71
080227/0900Z 57 32013KT 16.7F SNOW 20:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.091 14:1| 11.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80
080227/1200Z 60 32012KT 12.7F SNOW 21:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 14:1| 12.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.86
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080227/1500Z 63 30013KT 11.3F SNOW 24:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 15:1| 13.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.90
080227/1800Z 66 30014KT 13.3F SNOW 20:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 15:1| 13.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.91
080227/2100Z 69 30013KT 13.1F SNOW 20:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 15:1| 13.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.92
080228/0000Z 72 30010KT 11.3F SNOW 24:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 15:1| 13.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.93
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080228/0300Z 75 29009KT 10.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 15:1| 13.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.93
080228/0600Z 78 29008KT 9.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 15:1| 13.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.93


gfs = 13.9
nam = 12" flat

bet you NWS still goes with something like 4-8.

WSW for 6-12 inches.. AFD calls for 8-12 with all snow

icehater, here are the soundings for hte warmest of all models for my area

080226/1000Z 28 19004KT 29.7F SNOW 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01
080226/1100Z 29 17004KT 30.0F SNOW 13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 13:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04
080226/1200Z 30 15003KT 30.2F SNOW 13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 13:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080226/1300Z 31 12003KT 31.6F SNOW 15:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 13:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07
080226/1400Z 32 11004KT 33.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 12:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08
080226/1500Z 33 09005KT 34.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 12:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08
080226/1600Z 34 07006KT 35.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 11:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09
080226/1700Z 35 05008KT 34.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 8:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12
080226/1800Z 36 04009KT 32.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 6:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080226/1900Z 37 04011KT 32.5F SNOW 11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.079 8:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24
080226/2000Z 38 04013KT 32.0F SNOW 12:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.157 9:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40
080226/2100Z 39 04015KT 31.6F SNOW 11:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.142 10:1| 5.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54
080226/2200Z 40 04014KT 31.5F SNOW 13:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.197 10:1| 7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.74
080226/2300Z 41 04014KT 31.3F SNOW 8:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.209 10:1| 9.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.94
080227/0000Z 42 03014KT 31.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 10:1| 9.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.00
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080227/0100Z 43 02014KT 30.9F SNOW 13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055 10:1| 10.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.06
080227/0200Z 44 01015KT 30.6F SNOW 8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 10:1| 10.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.12
080227/0300Z 45 36016KT 29.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 10:1| 11.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.17
080227/0400Z 46 35017KT 28.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 10:1| 11.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.20
080227/0500Z 47 35018KT 27.0F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 10:1| 11.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.24
080227/0600Z 48 34018KT 24.8F SNOW 13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 10:1| 12.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.27
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080227/0700Z 49 34018KT 22.3F SNOW 17:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 10:1| 12.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.30
080227/0800Z 50 33018KT 20.1F SNOW 19:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 10:1| 13.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.34
080227/0900Z 51 33017KT 18.3F SNOW 21:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 10:1| 14.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.37
080227/1000Z 52 32016KT 16.9F SNOW 25:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 11:1| 15.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.40
080227/1100Z 53 32016KT 15.1F SNOW 29:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 11:1| 15.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.43
080227/1200Z 54 31015KT 13.5F SNOW 25:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 11:1| 16.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.45
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080227/1300Z 55 31015KT 13.1F SNOW 22:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 11:1| 16.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.48
080227/1400Z 56 31016KT 12.7F SNOW 21:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 12:1| 17.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.50
080227/1500Z 57 31015KT 12.4F SNOW 20:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 12:1| 17.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.52
080227/1600Z 58 30015KT 12.6F SNOW 20:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 12:1| 18.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.54
080227/1700Z 59 30015KT 12.9F SNOW 19:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 12:1| 18.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.56
080227/1800Z 60 30015KT 13.6F SNOW 19:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 12:1| 18.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.57
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080227/1900Z 61 30015KT 14.5F SNOW 22:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 12:1| 19.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.59
080227/2000Z 62 29015KT 14.9F SNOW 22:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 12:1| 19.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.59
080227/2100Z 63 29015KT 14.5F SNOW 22:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 12:1| 19.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.60
080227/2200Z 64 29015KT 13.8F SNOW 23:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 12:1| 19.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.61
080227/2300Z 65 29014KT 12.4F SNOW 28:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 12:1| 19.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.61
080228/0000Z 66 28014KT 11.3F SNOW 28:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 12:1| 19.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.62
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080228/0100Z 67 28014KT 10.4F SNOW 26:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 12:1| 20.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.63
080228/0200Z 68 28014KT 9.7F SNOW 26:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 12:1| 20.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.64
080228/0300Z 69 28013KT 9.1F SNOW 25:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 12:1| 20.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.64
080228/0400Z 70 28013KT 9.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 12:1| 20.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.64
080228/0500Z 71 28012KT 9.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 12:1| 20.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.64
080228/0600Z 72 28012KT 9.0F SNOW 27:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 12:1| 20.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.65
---------------------------------------------+----++-----++-----++---------------+-----++-----++-----++-----
080228/0700Z 73 27011KT 8.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 12:1| 20.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.65
080228/0800Z 74 27011KT 8.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 12:1| 20.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.65

0/12z nam output


6z/18z nam output

Looks like a bad bust in Buffalo and good bust in Albany. Albany stole western NY's snow and northern Maine will again get clobbered with 10-15" regardless. Buffalo - precip too light, temps near freezing and killer sun angle for light precip this late in the season. Maybe some LES overnight makes the forecast save face. But the storm itself is a bust.