.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AS SFC FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOSED UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT OF SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES AT THAT TIME. INCREASING MOISTURE POOLS RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT...AND WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVE IN...WITH BEST CHANCE
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. FEEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH IN SOUTH
FLOW TO KEEP ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL FROM FREEZING. ALL PROFILES AND
MOS NUMBERS SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...WITH TEMPS ACTUALLY
REMAINING STEADY OF RISING OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST AS DOES SURFACE LOW. ALL
MODELS NOW INDICATE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD...RIGHT OVER THE AREA. THIS
FRONT COULD EVEN SAG JUST SOUTH OF NYC/LI BY TUE EVENING. INCREASING
MOISTURE...BUT WEAK LIFT TUESDAY MAY BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN VICINITY OF FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING OF
FRONTAL MOVEMENT...BUT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED SINCE THEY GET
OFF TO A WARM START. COULD SEE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
HIGHS...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH. THEN TEMPS FALL A BIT AS COOLER
AIR SEEPS IN FROM THE NORTH UNDERNEATH DEEP INVERSION.

WITH FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD...I DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR EXTREME
NORTHERN SECTIONS OBSERVING COOLER AIR AT THE SFC...POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING IN SOME SPOTS. FOR NOW I WILL FOLLOW MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND MOS NUMBERS WHICH SUGGEST TEMPS ACROSS NW ZONES STAY
ABOVE FREEZING.

RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PWATS
INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH. DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA E
RIDGE NOSING UP ERN SEABOARD ALL POINT TO RAIN INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCREASING
MOISTURE DUE TO GULF BEING TAPPED. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ALSO SWEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS COULD OCCUR IN A SHORT TIME AS WELL. NEAR
THE COAST...THE PROBLEM WOULD BE SHORT TERM URBAN FLOODING
CONCERNS. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT COULD CAUSE
SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE NEAR BANKFULL. SINCE EVENT WOULD
LATE TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
ATTM. INFORMATION WILL REMAIN IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PREFERRED ECMWF HERE AS GFS SEEMS TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE LOW...AND
NAM HAS NOT BEEN TOO CONSISTENT. LOOKS LIKE RAIN TAPERS OFF DURING
THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM RACES BY. TRIED TO LINE POPS
UP SIMILAR TO ENSEMBLE PROBS FOR MEASURABLE.

&&